ETH Sell Strategy for Long Term Positions

This post details how I plan to sell into the FOMO or take profit into the pumps and bubbles.

The overall Selling Strategy has 4 parts.

1. TWAP Selling (Time Weighted Average Price)- means you sell over a defined period of time. (30%)

2. Price Level Selling- you sell at specific price levels. (40%)

3. Event Discretionary Selling- you sell based on TA, FA, news catalysts (30%)

4. Event Stop Loss Selling- you sell to protect your remaining capital.

Step 1 to Step 3 can occur simultaneously.

There are reasons to sell based on Time, Price and Event. I distribute the % allocated to each category based on gut feeling of accuracy in catching the top.


Use Fixed Range Volume Profile to find Whale accumulation levels.

June 2022 to October 2023 is $1600

Aug 2024 to Nov 2024 is $2600


Whale Sell Levels have a confluence of targets around 8k to 13k. The most recent accumulation levels of $2600 in Q2/Q3 2024 are the most important because the whales there are the least likely to have sold. The accumulation prior to that have had more opportunities to sell into the most recent pumps. The second major resistance area of confluence is around 16k.

Market Cap key levels are 1T, 2T

8.3k

16.6k

Big Round number levels are

10k

20k

Elliot Wave 5 targets: tradingfives.com/elliott-wave-pattern-guidelines/

W5 1.27 extension is 10.4k

W5 1.38 extension is 11.8k

W5 1.61 extension is 15.7k

W5 2.0 extension is 24.7k

Reverse log fib extension 1.27 is $7750

Reverse log fib extension 1.38 is $9300



Cup & Handle log target is 18k

Take the low point to the top of the trend line. Extrapolate that at the breakout point which we had today on 12/8/2024. Orange vertical arrow. I further subdivide the target into log fib zones. Top half above 8.4k is premium zone. $6500 is the minimum target this will hit. 18k will be the upper bound based on the triangle thrust target.

If you want to be conservative and use a linear chart. the Cup & Handle linear target is $7500.

There is heavy confluence of targets at 8k, 10k and 12k.


Price/MA ratio 200 Day indicator > 1.7; as of 12/8/24 200D MA is $3,002 x 1.7 = 5.1k (average bubble top length after this point?)

DCA out ideally between 2/3/2025 to 5/1/2025, has confluence with bullish seasonality

Price/MA ratio 200 Day indicator > 2.0; as of 12/8/24 200D MA is $3,002 x 2.0 = 6k

set alert on Tradingview

Price/MA ratio 200 Day indicator > 2.8; as of 12/8/24 200D MA is $3,002 x 2.8 = 8.3k (high probability target)

ratio is 1.33 as of 12/8/24

My trigger for TWAP selling will be when price goes above 6.5k. The duration of TWAP will be until early May 2025. That aligns with the seasonality of the bullish Q1 from Feb to mid April plus a 1 month extension for alt season. Take 30% of the initial position size and divided it by number of trading days until 5/1/2025 to get the daily TWAP selling position size.

Event Stop Loss Selling will be based on chart pattern, price action and breaking under the 10W SMA.

These are my notes on criteria I use for selling.

Step 1: TWAP Selling: price > 6.5k. DCA out until 5/1/2025 (30% of initial position size)

Step 2: Price Level Selling: 6.5k, 7k, 7.5k, 8k, 8.5k, 9k, 9.5k, 10k, 10.5k, 11k, 11.5k, 12K, 12.5k, 13K (40% of initial position size)

Step 3: Event Discretionary Selling: will be based on TA, FA, news catalysts. (30% of initial position size)

Step 4: Stop Loss Selling: (% whatever is remaining)

1 day price < 10W MA

Livermore 1D reversal candle

1D M.S. break down

Size of down red candle is larger than up green candles in the uptrend, for weekly and daily candles.

***If you are trading ETHA 0.30%↑ (Blackrock Ethereum ETF) like I am, just use the price of spot ETHUSD as a reference point. It should be a 1 to 1 correlation anyways.

See link in my signature for more detailed trade strategies.