This is an improved version of my last idea about ETH. This time it's on the weekly line chart to reduce noise.
The target is a bit higher this time ($700-$750). But you should consider that this pattern contains a lot of noise even with this improved version.
Multiple weekly close above $1900 would invalidate this. Personally, even one weekly close above it will make me to start feeling bullish about ETH.
The target is a bit higher this time ($700-$750). But you should consider that this pattern contains a lot of noise even with this improved version.
Multiple weekly close above $1900 would invalidate this. Personally, even one weekly close above it will make me to start feeling bullish about ETH.
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We have a dangerous parabolic down trend on the 4h chart. Let's see if this is the rejection.Nota
BTC looks good. We'll see if it's enough to invalidate this. I think a visit to 25k-27k range is completely reasonable.Nota
Incredible sell pressure on NASDAQ. We gonna find out soon i guess.Nota
BREAKING: ETHNota
I see bearish things about ETH on all timeframes. Merge narrative (A seven years old news) pushed ETH from $900 to $2000. It can easily lead the market downward just like it did upward.Nota
If you think "It's down too much." No, bears are playing well so far. Just remember ETH was below $900 3 months ago. Everyone knew very well the merge was going to happen back then. So don't be surprised. Trade the pattern.Nota
I'd expect big sells around here. But since we don't have them (yet), we might have a bounce.Nota
A bounce I wouldn't trade.Nota
Bounce is still too weak. It's still at that point you can't trade.Nota
My first target hit ~1350.Nota
~1250 is a big level. It's the range that this really is built upon. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 1300 quickly and try to touch 1250.Nota
I'm considering taking a long as a hedge ~1300Nota
eth/btc is dumping hard. it's another interesting chart. some kind of distribution. Imagine BTC holds 17k but ETH goes to 700-750. Is it too crazy?Nota
I think it's bounce time. Expecting a spike above 1500.Nota
I'm not convinced that this movement will be the next leg down for BTC yet. I think 17k-18k will hold. And if it does, we get a good bounce, this will look like a nice accumulation range. That's the interesting part. In that case, BTC will lead the market for a long time. So I think current trade is get a BTC long as close as possible 18k and hope it holds.Nota
I think BTC will leave the bottom fast. No matter if it's just a correction, another zic-zac, or the real rally start. The possibility of this being the real bottom should create some thrust.Nota
I guess we'll stretch 18k more. More is better as long as it holds.Nota
I think if BTC survives today's FOMC we might see a start of a rally. BTC is in a chop mode for the last 3 months. BTC.D is at a big support. Really the only thing that worries me about the market is this ETH pattern. Not even macro. And NASDAQ is bearish TA-wise. It's weird that the only thing I'm bullish about is BTC. Maybe BTC will just chop further while ETH goes to ~700. Maybe BTC will hold while everything else including US markets goes down.
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A fakeout followed by a rejection. Sure it looks bad but I feel like eventually this weird thing will break up not down.Nota
One of those moves that is not made by retail 100%.Nota
I'm not surprised at all with BTC holding around here. But ETH should not. if ETH keeps holding, I'll doubt about BTC too. I wanna see ETH breaking down while BTC holding.Nota
I'm still expecting big scam pump before the next leg.Nota
Trading is straightforward sometimes. If it loses 1200, it's bad.Nota
This is starting to feel like market is pretending "holding". Too long chop and dump.Nota
I think today might be an important day. Or tomorrow. DXY is so close to a resistance in my chart.Nota
Wow DXY is going crazy. Maybe we will see a blow-off top.Nota
Pound crashed while everyone was waiting crypto to crash lol. Interesting times.Nota
I really am ready to start feeling bullish about crypto but I wanna see BTC gaining strength not shitcoins.Nota
I think 20.600-21.000 is the big resistance. Bullish if can hold above. My target will be ~27k if we break the above structure.Nota
I still consider this move as a liquidity hunt although I'm neutral about BTC for now. But I am bearish about US markets. I'm bearish about the last rally leader ETH. So in general I'm bearish about the market.Nota
Things are looking bad. Maybe this little hopium will be enough for the next leg down.Nota
Maybe this is the part that we think it's down too much but it keeps going down.Nota
And the chart above is a monthly chart. We can easily hit $700 but close the month above the scam line.Nota
Hourly looks like an accumulation range now. Closed shorts just in case.Nota
I don't care about an hourly accumulation in a bear market. But this is not a place to take shorts. Might be good a place to take profit if you are in a good short. Maybe refill later. It's a 10 days range.Nota
I just refilled at $1330 with ~$1350 stop loss. Another just in case trade. 3% higher than my last tp.Nota
My short survived for now. Not sure what to think about this bounce for now. Might be the first leg of a big one.Nota
I think it's going up for now. I'll dca short 1500-1600 if I can.Nota
Feels like market needs a big scamp pump but US markets won't allow it lol.Nota
What a chop.Nota
Too much jebait too much chop. I think it should come down one more time even if it's gonna pump.Nota
Next move is going to be big. That's all we can say right now. Great effort to get rid of the inexpreinced trader or the gambler.Nota
Closed the day above the support. Gotta say I'm impressed by this effort. But... Idk I can't get rid of my strong bearish bias.Nota
I've just realized calling this rounding top is ridiculous. Because it's not a top. It is a bottom lol. But you know, this is the inverse of what we want to see. Ideally, we wanna see "dump->hold->fake breakdown->reclaim the hold level->consolidate->send". This often creates a rounding bottom. This makes people "Omg we've lost the support." But at this bottom price first made a low, bounced and created a lower low shortly after. Then created the range. I think this doesn't make the same effect on retail. People probably be like "Oh we bounced quickly from a support and holding now, so i should hold." Idk just my chain of thoughts lol.Nota
c'mon send it :D i am sick of this chop.Nota
I'll short 1420 if it comes. See if i can take some profit and move my break-even higher so i can build a good position.Nota
Shorting a range breakout might be a bad idea but:1. Inverted adam and eve pattern on eth.
2. Descending triangle pattern on btc.
3. I don't believe that the FED will pivot yet.
4. Sentiment is still turning positive quickly. I don't believe markets suffered enough.
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This slow movement is not bad news for bulls tho. It makes it super hard to degen long. Trapping shorters constantly because the sentiment is still generally bearish etc. It's slow for now tho. We'll see how the next move is gonna be.Nota
We know that this market fakes the fake of the fake tho. So at first eth/btc breakout will mean nothing to me. If;1. Breakout with great strength. Leaves everyone behind,
2. Consolidates above the support for some time and breakout again,
Then yes, you wanna be on eth's side against btc.
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And i've canceled my short orders around 1420. I'll keep the orders around 1490 for now.Nota
Why do I care so much about ETH/BTC? Because when ETH was at retest around 1800 I said that ETH will lead the market downwards. And it did. Now if ETH/BTC shows strength that could mean either we are in a correction to the upside or it's a big trend reversal.Nota
It's really hard to ignore all of the negative posts and everything on social media right now lol. Considering the state of the US markets, yes there is a risk obviously and thus i am not taking a long position but I am certainly not expecting a crash. Even if it's gonna happen I'd like to see a clear redist. pattern at this point.Nota
I took a small long but it's one of my just in case trades, nothing serious :DNota
Aaand it's gone wow lmao. Ok we got some bears.Nota
I just closed my eyes to the news and bought the dip a lil bit. Let's see if my TA tells the truth.Nota
I am still long and I intend to keep it until the market proves me wrong.Nota
Now the market has the chance and the reason to dump. Let's see if they will.Nota
I'm still long but losing confidence honestly. Have a stop loss on break-even price below 1250.Nota
On the other hand, if it runs some stops below 1250 and then comes back into the range, i'll probably market long.Nota
I got out with some profit @1296. I think we'll test some lows. I'll look for a good entry.Nota
I wanna see a couple of hourly closes above 1310. Or I'll try to long range low.Nota
CPI data is bad. It got rejected from the broken pennant. NASDAQ has at least 3-4% room downside in my view. So I thought why not a range low test at least.Nota
... Because this is one hell of a range right now. Something you should not underestimate.Nota
ok wild test :D i longed 1258. let's see what happens. btc.d is sending. eth/btc tested the desc. triangle. it's wild for alts but shouldn't get any wilder or i am out.Nota
ok i got out. looks terrible. never seen a more ridiculous move. something feels wrong but anyway we'll see what happens.Nota
did my short-term bias changed? actually no. i'd never short this. there is no strong TA argument for me to short here. maybe we're just forming a bigger range around here. idk now. this is wait and see time for me.Nota
I got a small long from ~1250 but let's see. I don't trust this state of the market. Eth dropped too deep for me. Yes they pushed it up immediately but that doesn't do it for me, yet.Nota
Up only? I'm ok with that :D They are playing it dirty.Nota
I wasn't expecting a wick below 1200. Thus I am mostly shaken out too. (Kept small part of the long from 1250). But this was a good TA lesson anyway. I am sorry if you shorted the bottom of a bullish range.Nota
Is ETH really accumulating? Idk. A few things don't fit but i am impressed anyway.Nota
I still think anything between 1450-1500 is a great short btw. At that point, you short it with a reasonable stop for you, and hope it's a redist. range not an accumulation range.Nota
Yeah it wants to stay boring.Nota
Chop... Chop never changes.Nota
I think DXY is breaking up. Let's see if crypto can resist against the pressure of other markets. I'm a TA guy. I can't see strong bearish trend coming soon. First the trap.Nota
And i have to say this range is looking more and more like an accumulation range. If it breaks up, I won't try to short it until I see some really clear bearish signals.Nota
My long is almost all closed. I have small short orders between 1430-1490 but I'll take very little risk until i see some bearish signs.Nota
Wow ok that's aggressive. You can't say ETH didn't earn it tho. Bulls worked hard.Nota
My short orders are filled with an average of $1480. Took some profits and break-even is $1500. Have stops above 1530. This is the best i can as a bear for now. We can't talk about a solid up-trend yet. So we will see.Nota
I mean ok, up only, bottom is in bla bla. But there is no trend. This is a full blown squeeze.Nota
Personally I'm holding a short with 1545 break-even price because i think it's worth the risk to start building the short around here.Nota
To make it more clear, I scaled down my short dramatically around 1530 but never closed. Added some, took some profit etc. and the break-even is 1545 now with an easily scalable position size.Nota
Now i got a BTC short as well. from 20.560. i tought it's worh a try. stop above 20.800.Nota
Oh bull market started? lol. i didn't close anything. Because i didn't feel like it :D Sometimes things go south in trading. If you manage your risk well it might make sense to wait instead of run away immediately.Nota
Would you believe a bull market starts with DOGE leading on a weekend right before FOMC meeting? There are crowds who do apparently. I've seen the same scenario in this year. Social media is full of bear mockery. In such a risky environment. Maybe the second worst environment in the century.Nota
And i think there is a widespread misunderstanding about FED slowing down. Even if they do it doesn't mean a QE. And look at the DJI. You think it's at a bottom? Do you really think all the risks and the current QT is fully priced in?Nota
People will never believe their favorite bull guy on twitter if the market crashes here. It'd be very interesting to watch.Nota
Some people are comparing these 2 boxes but i don't think it's tradable.I see their point. It's the general idea of accumulation but:1. By comparing these two boxes you are making a claim based on only 1 data point in this chart.
2. Previous bottom showed clear signs of momentum change at the exact bottom. You can clearly see it was coiling up. Rounding bottom.
3. I think lower timeframes don't support this idea.
4. Different economic environment. More risks etc.
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I can also add previous double top was a different structure. The spring is between the two tops. This one is a single top that is confirmed shortly after.Nota
BTC still bearish. BTC.D looks really bullish. Alt season but for bears i guess :DNota
It's all up to FED at this point. Clearly the market built some hopium on the chart. If FED shows hawkish determination signs today, I think we'll say bye bye to hopium. The number one rule of trading is not fighting the FED. TA shows different options on different views, timeframes.Nota
I think Powell dictated the direction. I'd be really surprised if i'm wrong.Nota
Ooor this is it :D BTC not looking healthy.Nota
Ok so, no corrections or anything. Straight to the new highs :D cool.Nota
So looks like we are having a failed rally right now. As expected. But at this point i gotta expect a UTAD on BTC. Market wanted more for some reason.Nota
Look at DOGE to see what's market doing. That PA alone is whispering crash to me.Nota
You know it's hard to preserve your bias/opinion in a distribution or accumulation phase. I'm struggling like everyone else but I don't trade the opposite direction until i see that thing i thought accumulation/distribution is invalidated.Nota
I'm starting to see $700 targets on twitter. That's sweet :D Another 6 moths of chop? lol.Nota
as disgusting as possiblePenafian
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Penafian
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