Let's look at the really big picture here on the EUR/USD- the MONTHLY chart (log scale).
Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware.
Usage:
- protecting your savings (by going into USD)
- determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?)
- as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about.
Within the orange box, one could still have argued, EURUSD is in a "corrective phase" (though being violent). That all ended in January 2015 (price breakdown) but which was warned of by the RSI as early as in September 2015 (RSI support line break).
Fib target level: 1.007
Personally, fundamentally speaking (!) I would not be surprised to see that break, too. To then see the EURUSD retrace all the way to approx. 0.90). However, that's highly speculative and there's NO way of telling so from this chart. A collapse in Euroland might cause it, or a worldwide flee into the 'safe' USD might be a cause too. The good thing: as long as we stay alive, we shall see it either happening - or not.
There is definitely NO positive RSI divergence yet. On the contrary: the RSI is now just CONFIRMING the negative mode for EURUSD. Continued pressure DOWN is therefore what you'd be looking for.
Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for. When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside therefore bear the weigth of the monthly with them.
Note: this is of course NOT suitable for trading. Beware.
Usage:
- protecting your savings (by going into USD)
- determining the overall trend (which pressure prevails, when going down to lower time frames?)
- as well as determining important support & resistance levels we might otherwise forget about.
Within the orange box, one could still have argued, EURUSD is in a "corrective phase" (though being violent). That all ended in January 2015 (price breakdown) but which was warned of by the RSI as early as in September 2015 (RSI support line break).
Fib target level: 1.007
Personally, fundamentally speaking (!) I would not be surprised to see that break, too. To then see the EURUSD retrace all the way to approx. 0.90). However, that's highly speculative and there's NO way of telling so from this chart. A collapse in Euroland might cause it, or a worldwide flee into the 'safe' USD might be a cause too. The good thing: as long as we stay alive, we shall see it either happening - or not.
There is definitely NO positive RSI divergence yet. On the contrary: the RSI is now just CONFIRMING the negative mode for EURUSD. Continued pressure DOWN is therefore what you'd be looking for.
Concluding: continued downside pressure is what you'd be looking for. When trading the shorter swings, positions to the downside therefore bear the weigth of the monthly with them.
