ECB Press Conference - Trading EUR/USD - Speculative & Technical
ECB (European Central Bank) will announce the Minimum Bid Rate today, followed by the ECB Press Conference held by the one and only Mario Draghi who is known to rock the boat with his insights on the Monetary Policy.
The ECB is widely expected to keep the Policy unchanged, however, since the last monetary policy meeting in January, Inflation picked up significantly and there were also improvements in Manufacturing, Labor and Services sectors.
That being said, we can say that the ECB is on track with it's Inflation Targets and that we would watch out for President Draghi to show confidence in his speech or when answering key questions, all this translating into a very possible Bullish EUR.
Sentimentally speaking, after ADP (US private jobs sector) showed us an outstanding rise towards 298K vs the 184K expected, the NFP (government jobs sector in US) is expected to contract tomorrow. If another rise will be present, then the expectations for a FED Rate Hike next week on the 15th will rise even more. USD is very strong sentimentally speaking, but it has to show consistency with the NFP and upcoming CPI in order for us to switch towards full speed ahead on Bullish USD views. It's a wait and see game as of now.
Technically, the USD Index is showing Bears temporary weakness with the Bearish Divergence popping up at a Double Top (2nd March).
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Following our correct previous analysis back in December, we had the nice Bullish Swing for Intermediate Wave (W) (black) and then the ABC Minor Waves (light blue) Retracement, completing the previously announced Intermediate Wave (X).
Intermediate Wave (Y) has started, with Minor Wave A (light blue) still developing, revealing so far Minute Waves A & B (green).
Minute Wave A (green) unfolded as a ZIg-Zag towards 1.05250 Levels (also 61.8% Fibs of Intermediate W), presenting itself as a Descending Channel, just waiting for a Breach.
We are expecting a Bullish Breach and then a Channel Retest which would most likely form a Flag, confirming a Bullish Signal.
Level in Focus and BUY Set-up:
Entry - 105400
SL - 1.04900
TP - 1.06700
Aggressive and Speculative Trading Scenario:
- entry prior to the released data and press conference
Conservative Scenario:
- wait for Bullish confirmation and then a Flag before entering
- if sudden drop towards 1.04900, watch for a Bullish Divergence
* The presented Analysis implies a higher risk then usual due to the nature of Speculative Trading, please consider any risks involved before engaging.
Many pips ahead!
The ECB is widely expected to keep the Policy unchanged, however, since the last monetary policy meeting in January, Inflation picked up significantly and there were also improvements in Manufacturing, Labor and Services sectors.
That being said, we can say that the ECB is on track with it's Inflation Targets and that we would watch out for President Draghi to show confidence in his speech or when answering key questions, all this translating into a very possible Bullish EUR.
Sentimentally speaking, after ADP (US private jobs sector) showed us an outstanding rise towards 298K vs the 184K expected, the NFP (government jobs sector in US) is expected to contract tomorrow. If another rise will be present, then the expectations for a FED Rate Hike next week on the 15th will rise even more. USD is very strong sentimentally speaking, but it has to show consistency with the NFP and upcoming CPI in order for us to switch towards full speed ahead on Bullish USD views. It's a wait and see game as of now.
Technically, the USD Index is showing Bears temporary weakness with the Bearish Divergence popping up at a Double Top (2nd March).
Elliott Wave Analysis:
Following our correct previous analysis back in December, we had the nice Bullish Swing for Intermediate Wave (W) (black) and then the ABC Minor Waves (light blue) Retracement, completing the previously announced Intermediate Wave (X).
Intermediate Wave (Y) has started, with Minor Wave A (light blue) still developing, revealing so far Minute Waves A & B (green).
Minute Wave A (green) unfolded as a ZIg-Zag towards 1.05250 Levels (also 61.8% Fibs of Intermediate W), presenting itself as a Descending Channel, just waiting for a Breach.
We are expecting a Bullish Breach and then a Channel Retest which would most likely form a Flag, confirming a Bullish Signal.
Level in Focus and BUY Set-up:
Entry - 105400
SL - 1.04900
TP - 1.06700
Aggressive and Speculative Trading Scenario:
- entry prior to the released data and press conference
Conservative Scenario:
- wait for Bullish confirmation and then a Flag before entering
- if sudden drop towards 1.04900, watch for a Bullish Divergence
* The presented Analysis implies a higher risk then usual due to the nature of Speculative Trading, please consider any risks involved before engaging.
Many pips ahead!
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