EUR/USD: Volatility & Divergence
EURUSD
Fundamental Analysis:
the EUR/USD currency pair is influenced by diverging economic indicators between the Eurozone and the United States. The U.S. shows stronger economic momentum with a GDP growth rate of 2.1% compared to the Eurozone's 0.1%, and a lower unemployment rate of 3.8% versus 6.4%. Additionally, the U.S. offers a higher interest rate of 5.5%, making dollar assets more attractive, and boasts a consumer confidence level of 63 points, far exceeding the Eurozone's negative -17.8. the overall data suggests that the U.S. dollar is likely to strengthen against the euro in the short to medium term.
Technical Analysis:
the EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating around a strong support zone following a significant bearish trend. This presents two primary scenarios based on potential actions by the European Central Bank (ECB):
Scenario A: If the ECB decides to pause interest rates, we could see the EUR/USD pair decline further, potentially reaching around the 1.04 level. This would be a continuation of the existing bearish sentiment.
Scenario B: On the other hand, if the ECB opts to raise interest rates, this could serve as a catalyst for the pair to start a bullish trend, reversing some of the recent losses.
Scenario C: It's also worth considering that if the ECB pauses rates amidst rising geopolitical tensions, the pair could still experience bullish movements. This could occur if investors start to view the U.S. dollar as less reliable due to uncertainty, thereby increasing demand for the euro.
Bullish Targets : 1.06400, 1.06900
Bearish Target : 1.04
VIX
A. Tighten Risk Management
B. Diversify and Seek Safe Havens
C. Maintain Emotional Discipline
E. Avoid Over Trading
F. Use Hedging Strategies
Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai:
all targets have been reached
One of the TP has been reached