EUR/USD daily overview

23 Apr 2018

Strong downside potential drove EUR/USD considerably lower on Friday. After failing to surpass the 200-hour SMA, the pair fell 76 pips down to 1.2280. This level coincides with the weekly S2.

Even though technical indicators are located in the oversold territory, some downwards potential might still occur today. The nearest support is provided by a trend-line and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement, while the weekly S1 at 1.2220. It is, however, unlikely that the latter is reached within the following trading session.

Meanwhile, gains are likely to be limited by the 55-hour SMA near 1.2320. This area is likewise reinforced by the monthly and weekly PPs.

Even if a fall occurs within the following hours, bulls are expected to prevail during the second part of the day.

24 Apr 2018

Nota

The Euro remained under the bearish pressure on Monday. Downside risks accelerated early in the session when sluggish Euro zone’s Manufacturing PMI dragged the pair down to the dashed trend-line and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement near 1.2230. The pair subsequently edged even lower just to end the day below the weekly S1.

Technical indicators suggest that this psychological 1.22 level is likely to surrender today. However, the comparably strong support formed by the weekly S2 and the monthly S1 that should hold strong is located nearby at 1.2155.

On the other hand, the 1.22 could stop the pair’s three-day decline, especially when the 100-day SMA is likewise supporting this level. In case of an upward movement, the Euro should target the senior channel and the 55-hour SMA at 1.2270.

25 Apr 2018

Nota

The common European currency failed to move below the 1.22 mark due to the strong support of the 100-day SMA.

This was followed by a slight move upwards, but a steep advance was restricted by the 55-hour moving average, a breached trend-line and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement. This cluster remained an unbreakable barrier during the Asian session, as well.

The general tendency of the pair is likely to remain northwards this week, as it should target the 200-hour SMA and the 23.60% Fibo retracement circa 1.2360.

Meanwhile, this session might mark a brief period of consolidation in the 1.2200/60 during the first part of the day in response to pressures from the aforementioned barriers. The latter, however, should be surpassed, and a test of the 100-hour SMA should follow near 1.2280.

26 Apr 2018

Nota

EUR/USD failed to pick up momentum on Wednesday and remained below the 55-hour SMA. The downside momentum was strong enough to breach the 100-day SMA at 1.22 and push the rate down to the monthly S1 and the weekly S2 at 1.2155.

Given that the pair has failed to move below this level since the very beginning of 2018, the first part of the session should mark a slight recovery up to the 55-hour SMA, the weekly S1 and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement.

Traders are likely to maintain volatility at low levels during this time prior to the ECB Minimum Bid Rate and the press conference today at 1145GMT and 1230GMT, respectively. These releases could guide the market sentiment during the second part of the day. The pair, however, should remain in the 1.2140/1.2240 range.

27 Apr 2018

Nota

The common European currency continues to weaken considerably against its American counterpart for the sixth consecutive session.

On Thursday morning, the pair was bounded between a 2018 support and the 55-hour SMA. The former was breached after the ECB press conference when traders pushed the pair down to a fresh three-month low of 1.21.

This mark is likely to provide some support during the first part of the day, as it is a long-term support/resistance level. This should sent the Euro for a minor recovery towards the 55-hour SMA and a strong resistance point at 1.2160.

The US Advance GDP is likely to dominate the second part of this session with the daily high and low being located at 1.2200 and 1.2040, respectively.