My expected analysis for the week is that price will slow down at market open and potentially sell off from the 16-hour supply zone. Once price enters this zone, I will wait for an Asia high sweep and look for distribution on the lower time frames.
If price breaks through this supply zone, there is an 18-hour supply zone where price might react. However, since this is a counter-trend trade idea, I expect price to retrace from this bias, allowing me to eventually buy from either the 4-hour supply zone or the 18-hour supply zone.
Confluences for GU Sells are as follows:
- Price has been very bullish, so a retracement is needed to sustain the upward movement.
- The recent price action has been very parabolic, leading to unhealthy price behavior.
- There are imbalances and liquidity below that need to be filled.
- The 16-hour supply zone presents a potential opportunity for short trades.
P.S. If price doesn't tap into the supply zone, I'll wait for it to come down to a demand zone before looking for buys to rejoin the trend.
Have a great trading week, guys!