GBP - Simplified

Looking at the open and the way things are starting to line up, this is the outcome I'm thinking is most likely.

Still hedged, waiting for the price to reach the short position, release the buys at breakeven, then let price go down to meet up with my sells down below. I will have a 4x hedge order in where the stop loss is shown (1.2295), entry at 1.2263, target at 1.217

Looking at the channel to continue up into the resistance area, then bounce down off the trend trend line from above off the double top rollover (solid yellow) and follow down the dotted yellow line to 1.217 for the target and finding some support.

Trade will follow with this idea used to track the trade, as the other one does not make much sense, except to me lol (Sorry)

Komen:

Rising channel continues. I've seen this pattern too many times. Very High probability setup.

Head and shoulders has already played, although the right shoulder is rather flat, there is aggressive selling off of it, so the level we are coming into is the neckline, and the pattern and formation of the channel coming into the neckline gives me a lot of confidence in what's coming. Target is a soft target, but I think it can go lower....

Komen:

Very nice supply zone there (I have mine there too :) ) as well where the sell off began. Very strong sell of makes me think the target may be somewhere in the 1.211 - 1.213 areas

Komen:

Price has support on 1.223, still within the extremes of the channel, even though we have come out of the core. Looking for it to try and make a new extreme (at the entry area) then start making it's way back down again Entry still valid as very probable

Komen:

Rsi showing divergence (5 minutes), and alignment to the entry point area

Komen:

Antsy sellers coming in too early, stops right in the way of entry, more help to get it

Komen:

Not taking the bait... looks like a short stop run

Komen:

Also the extreme line of the channel, so more eager sellers going too soon, just collecting stops to hit

Komen:

Whipsaw, then down, that's what I'm expecting right now.

Komen:

1.222 also has support, and probably the better one for institutions to laucnh the whipsaw stop hunt from

Komen:

Violence in the candles building. Big move coming, shake everyone out

Komen:

Yes double top, yes fell out of the channel

NO we're inbetween 2 key levels, so I don't believe any of it

Komen:

Confuse and take.....

Komen:

Late eager sellers in, they'll be hurt the worst

Komen:

Short term trendline break, hurt time

Komen:

😂 sorry, I saw that coming ....

Komen:

Now to hurt the top hunters

Komen:

Confused are going long

Komen:

Wait for it.....

Komen:

few more to go long on the other side and reach the trendline, and it's all over

Komen:

Close but no cookie, just a bit longer, the whipsaw is not over

Komen:

More senseless confusion, create doubts on levels and direction

Komen:

You just wanted long, got stopped out, now you're short, you'll get stopped out

Komen:

We'll break the high, and they'll go long at the peak, and then the bottom falls out

Komen:

They've been bamboozoled too many times, this time they go long, forget the stop loss......

Dagangan aktif:

Buys closed at net positive 3 pips gain

Komen:

All the longs and no stops will be plenty to sustain a nice move

Komen:

If all of my thinking is correct or at least close, all the ones holding long with no stops will be the ones to sustain the move, by gradually dumping out over time.

Komen:

Make them think there's hope after the first stops are hit, so they hang on

Komen:

Get them to buy some more, thinking they'll recover losses from earlier.....

Komen:

Yellow trend line showing signs it's about take over.....

Komen:

Now dotted yellow, soon, price should fall

Komen:

One more trap because almost nobody knows about that dotted yellow line

Komen:

The dotted yellow is sort of 'arbitrary'. It more or less represent the agression of the price move. I think it represents how fast orders are being moved down, and how fast orders are being filled and take effect. It's a little personal theroy I've been messing with

Komen:

Still holding the lower sell hedge carried in since friday, no extra position at the top, but if I had one, once price finally breaks below 1.225 by a little, I would put the trade (that position) risk free, but not just yet in case we have a stop run

Komen:

Pretty sure the solid yellow will be the limit, but they see you and everyone else sitting there too, just wait a minute more...

Komen:

Bringing buy stop hedge down to 1.2285

Komen:

See, stop run.....

Komen:

But if we don't drop after this, I will be a little concerned

Komen:

Starting to get some order blocks on the 5m at the supply zone, we may be ok...

Komen:

Price has sort of stalled, though we do look to be pointing downward as far as things look with what's going on. Just woke from a nap, still watching and hedge stop in the same place at 1.2285

Komen:

Just made a dive from the top of the small channel to the extreme bottom quickly, good sign of things to come

Komen:

Falling out of the channel.... Now I would set the trade position to break even and let it ride to target. I'm still observing an exit for the lower buy position half of the hedge I carried in

Komen:

"risk free" let me use proper terms

Komen:

Buy hedge moved to 1.2271

Komen:

Breakout stop run to get the move started, should see some more follow through soon

Komen:

Setting the lower hedge target to 1.22, time to get out of this one and get fresh for a new one to try and continue to target without so much weight in it

Komen:

1.228* little room, I'd like to get on out of the lower position... Not get hedged again

Komen:

We are back below a key level, and expecting this to be a retest

Komen:

Hedge was pushed up, 1.2286, original spot
May get hit still, and the move is breaking down if it doesn't go now

Komen:

Looking like another shakeout, or the falling apart point of the idea....

Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai:

Hedged again..... Idea broken

Komen:

Supply zone ran out, that was the last stand for the idea

Komen:

Buy hedge targeted for 1.233

Komen:

I would think, if nothing else, there should be lots of rejection and sellers off the top most levels of the price range weven been in for quite some time(much larger picture) seeing the strong reaction from this level before let's me know that even if it does drift up slightly higher, a rejection should very likely happen, as it did the last time we reached up here earlier today