GOLD → Slump Continues as US Bond Yields Remain Elevated

GOLD ANALYSIS, PRICE, AND CHART
- US Treasury yields remain near recent multi-year peaks.
- Gold is closing in on the late-February low at $1,805/oz.

US Treasury yields remain within touching distance of multi-year highs head of a speech later in the session by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While financial markets are attributing a near 75% probability that the US central bank will leave rates unchanged at the November 1st meeting, further out that probability drops to mid-50%.

CME FEDWATCH PROBABILITIES TOOL

Elevated US bond yields are weighing heavily on gold and silver and with yields expected to stay elevated in the near future, the going looks tough for gold. While these bond yields are high, it may be that they are close to their short-term peaks if rates are not going to move higher. A week packed full of US jobs data, and the previously mentioned speech by Chair Powell will decide the near-term direction for US government debt.

GOLD value has dropped by almost 6% since September 20th, with bearish candles continuing to appear. The sell-off was accelerated by breaking and opening below all three simple moving averages. Despite prior support levels, the downward trend persisted. The next support level is at $1,805/oz., followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,794/oz. The CCI indicator shows oversold conditions due to recent selling, which may temporarily slow further losses until it normalizes.

Komen:

It is possible that gold will reverse this week and the driving force for gold's increase is that the USD has peaked and begun to decline, the precious metal will soon bottom. Falling core inflation helps stabilize US interest rates and the decline in the USD will support the precious metal. Gold needs to return to 1,885 USD/ounce for technical stability and 1,892 USD/ounce to strengthen market confidence.

Komen:

🕯 SELL GOLD |  1839 - 1836

🔴 SL: 1844

🟢 TP1: 1831
🟢 TP2: 1826