As global risk sentiment picks up and US Treasury yields continue to rise, gold loses its safe-haven appeal. XAU/USD fell below the key technical support of $3,135 today, hitting a new low since April 10. Market expectations for a sharp rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year have cooled significantly, pushing US Treasury yields to a near one-month high. Although geopolitical tensions have failed to effectively support gold prices, the market is waiting for US PPI data and Fed Chairman Powell's speech in the evening to provide new direction guidance for gold prices.
It continued to decline on Thursday, falling to the $3,120 area during the Asian session, a new low in January. The global trade sentiment has picked up, and Trump's willingness to communicate directly with Asian leaders on trade details has eased market concerns about economic recession, thereby weakening gold's safe-haven appeal.
In addition, traders lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut this year from more than 100 basis points to about 50 basis points, triggering higher US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a near one-month high, further suppressing the attractiveness of interest-free assets such as gold.
"The short-term ceasefire agreement between the United States and Asian countries is reshaping the market's risk appetite, and gold bulls are temporarily exiting the market." - According to market surveys
Although many Fed officials have recently expressed a wait-and-see attitude, the overall tone has not shown a tendency to ease. Vice Chairman Jefferson pointed out that tariffs and policy uncertainty may disrupt inflation progress; Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee also emphasized that inflation data lags and requires patience.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daly believes that the US economy and employment are still solid, and policies can be flexibly adjusted according to future economic evolution.
Although Ukrainian President Zelensky's plan for the first peace talks with Russia has attracted attention, the Russian president will be absent from the meeting and geopolitical tensions remain. In addition, the escalation of missile exchanges between Israel and Yemen has caused heavy casualties in the Gaza region, but has failed to significantly boost gold prices.
From a technical perspective, after the gold price fell below the key support of $3,200, it broke through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (3,168-3,170 US dollars) since the April rally, sending a clear downward signal. Daily momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) began to turn into negative territory, indicating that the downward momentum has not yet ended.
The current focus is on the lower support level of $3100-3120. If it falls below this level, the gold price may further test the $3050 or even $3000 support band. As for the upper resistance, if the gold price can stand above $3170, it will need to challenge $3200 and $3230 (50% retracement level).
If it breaks through further, it is expected to start a new round of rebound to $3265 or even $3300.
Editor's point of view:
Against the background of a brief recovery in global risk sentiment and a stabilization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, gold faces dual pressures from fundamentals and technical aspects. The current gold price is on the edge of key support. If the US PPI data released tonight and Powell's speech release hawkish signals, it is not ruled out that the gold price will quickly fall to $3100 or even lower.
In the short term, the trend of gold depends more on the repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and whether the safe-haven demand returns. Until there is a technical reversal in the current trend, gold will remain cautiously bearish.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD
It continued to decline on Thursday, falling to the $3,120 area during the Asian session, a new low in January. The global trade sentiment has picked up, and Trump's willingness to communicate directly with Asian leaders on trade details has eased market concerns about economic recession, thereby weakening gold's safe-haven appeal.
In addition, traders lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cut this year from more than 100 basis points to about 50 basis points, triggering higher US Treasury yields. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to a near one-month high, further suppressing the attractiveness of interest-free assets such as gold.
"The short-term ceasefire agreement between the United States and Asian countries is reshaping the market's risk appetite, and gold bulls are temporarily exiting the market." - According to market surveys
Although many Fed officials have recently expressed a wait-and-see attitude, the overall tone has not shown a tendency to ease. Vice Chairman Jefferson pointed out that tariffs and policy uncertainty may disrupt inflation progress; Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee also emphasized that inflation data lags and requires patience.
San Francisco Fed Chairman Daly believes that the US economy and employment are still solid, and policies can be flexibly adjusted according to future economic evolution.
Although Ukrainian President Zelensky's plan for the first peace talks with Russia has attracted attention, the Russian president will be absent from the meeting and geopolitical tensions remain. In addition, the escalation of missile exchanges between Israel and Yemen has caused heavy casualties in the Gaza region, but has failed to significantly boost gold prices.
From a technical perspective, after the gold price fell below the key support of $3,200, it broke through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (3,168-3,170 US dollars) since the April rally, sending a clear downward signal. Daily momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) began to turn into negative territory, indicating that the downward momentum has not yet ended.
The current focus is on the lower support level of $3100-3120. If it falls below this level, the gold price may further test the $3050 or even $3000 support band. As for the upper resistance, if the gold price can stand above $3170, it will need to challenge $3200 and $3230 (50% retracement level).
If it breaks through further, it is expected to start a new round of rebound to $3265 or even $3300.
Editor's point of view:
Against the background of a brief recovery in global risk sentiment and a stabilization of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, gold faces dual pressures from fundamentals and technical aspects. The current gold price is on the edge of key support. If the US PPI data released tonight and Powell's speech release hawkish signals, it is not ruled out that the gold price will quickly fall to $3100 or even lower.
In the short term, the trend of gold depends more on the repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and whether the safe-haven demand returns. Until there is a technical reversal in the current trend, gold will remain cautiously bearish.
XAUUSD GOLD XAUUSD 
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.
Continuously release precise trading plans to lead members to expand profits, with a stable profit of 988% every month. If you have not made a profit yet, then join us. t.me/fahsufnwks
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.