Hpg
VPG ban than cho POM, PC1 và HPG
🟩Raised recommendation to Buy after the sell-off
• HSC raised its recommendation for HPG to Buy (from Increase weight) after the stock price dropped 7% since August 17 amid a sell-off of the entire market.
HSC maintains a price target of 32,000 (22% upside potential).
We maintain our profit forecast for the period 2023-2025 with profit net sales fell 12.8% this year but recovered 92.9% and 16.8% respectively in 2024-2025.
After adjustment, HPG's valuation is now more attractive with a 1-year forward P/E of 13.6 times, compared to the past average of 10.3 times.
Thanks to the improving outlook, the current high valuation is not a concern ours
🟩Event: Attractive valuation after draft version
The stock price decreased by 6.9% from the closing price on August 17 of VND 28,100 due to investor panic in the context of a strong market correction.
We remain bullish on the current valuation and base assumptions;
therefore, we see great potential at the current valuation.
🟩Impact: Maintaining profit forecast for the period 2023-2025 slightly lower than the market forecast.
Accordingly, net profit is forecast to decrease by 12.8% over the same period in 2023 to VND 7,400, then grow by 92.9% and 16.8% to VND 14,274 billion and VND 16,668, respectively billions dong.
From there, net profit in the second half of 2023 is forecast to reach VND 5,542 billion, down 198.4% y/y and a sharp reversal from a net loss of VND3,766 billion VND in the last 6 months of 2022, thanks to improved sales volume and profit margin expanding profits.
🟩Valuations and recommendations
Despite falling 7% in recent trading sessions, HPG's share price is still increased 20% in the past 3 months.
Accordingly, HPG is trading at a 1-year forward forward P/E of 13.6 times, compared to the past average of 10.3 times.
We think the current high valuation is deserved given the improving fundamentals (rising demand, improving operating performance and expanding margins).
For PIB, HPG is trading at forward P/B of 2023-2024 times 1.4x and 1.3x respectively.
We maintain a target price of VND32,000, with upside potential of 22%.
Because the fundamentals have not changed and the recovery momentum is still on track, we raise our recommendation to Buy (from Increase weight) because we believe that HPG will be one of the businesses that benefit from investment activities public, with a clear recovery prospect.
🟩Falling stock prices provide an opportunity to accumulate shares
The recent decline in HPG stock price, in the context of the entire draft market, provides a good opportunity for investors to Buy shares based on the Company's clear recovery prospects and good position to benefit from public investment projects.
HSC maintains a target price of 32,000 VND (22% upside potential) and forecast.
We upgrade our recommendation for HPG to Buy (from Increase weight).
🟩Evaluation of business results in the second half of 2023
🔮HSC maintains its profit forecast for 2023 (Detailed information below), equivalent to net revenue and net profit in the second half of 2023 of VND 68,189 billion (up 13.8% over the same period and 21. 6% compared to the first half of the year) and VND 5,542 billion (an increase of 198.4% compared to the first half of the year and a reversal compared to a net loss of VND 3,766 billion in the last 6 months of 2022).
Profits are forecast to grow strongly thanks to improved consumption output (with the expectation that the Government will boost public investment while export output continues to be high) and increased profit margins (due to operating performance). improvements and lower initial costs begin to reflect).
🟩Maintain profit forecast for the period of 2023-2025
HSC maintains its profit forecast for the period 2023-2025 with net profit down 12.8% year-on-year this year but growing strongly by 92.9% and 16.8% in 2024-2025, respectively.
Accordingly, we forecast net revenue and net profit in 2023 to be VND 124,274 billion (down 12.1% over the same period) and VND 7,400 billion (down 12.8% over the same period), respectively.
In 2024-2025, we forecast net profit will reach VND 14,274 billion (92.9% growth) and VND 16,668 billion (16.8% growth), respectively.
🟩Valuations and recommendations
HSC maintains the target price according to the DCF method of VND 32,000 (Please see our Update Report released on August 10, 2023).
As HPG stock price dropped 7% after the recent market sell-off, upside potential now rises to 22%. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy from Overweight.
🟩After adjustment, HPG is trading with a 1-year forward P/E of 13.6 times, 0.7 standard deviations lower than the historical average of 10.3 times.
For P/B, HPG is trading at forward P/B of 2023-2024 of 1.4x and 1.3x, respectively.
Note, despite the current high 1-year forward P/E estimate, we see some positive signs of recovery in the current period, led by the recovery of sales volume, efficiency operating efficiency increases and input costs decrease.
VPG ban than cho POM, PC1 và HPG
🟩Raised recommendation to Buy after the sell-off
• HSC raised its recommendation for HPG to Buy (from Increase weight) after the stock price dropped 7% since August 17 amid a sell-off of the entire market.
HSC maintains a price target of 32,000 (22% upside potential).
We maintain our profit forecast for the period 2023-2025 with profit net sales fell 12.8% this year but recovered 92.9% and 16.8% respectively in 2024-2025.
After adjustment, HPG's valuation is now more attractive with a 1-year forward P/E of 13.6 times, compared to the past average of 10.3 times.
Thanks to the improving outlook, the current high valuation is not a concern ours
🟩Event: Attractive valuation after draft version
The stock price decreased by 6.9% from the closing price on August 17 of VND 28,100 due to investor panic in the context of a strong market correction.
We remain bullish on the current valuation and base assumptions;
therefore, we see great potential at the current valuation.
🟩Impact: Maintaining profit forecast for the period 2023-2025 slightly lower than the market forecast.
Accordingly, net profit is forecast to decrease by 12.8% over the same period in 2023 to VND 7,400, then grow by 92.9% and 16.8% to VND 14,274 billion and VND 16,668, respectively billions dong.
From there, net profit in the second half of 2023 is forecast to reach VND 5,542 billion, down 198.4% y/y and a sharp reversal from a net loss of VND3,766 billion VND in the last 6 months of 2022, thanks to improved sales volume and profit margin expanding profits.
🟩Valuations and recommendations
Despite falling 7% in recent trading sessions, HPG's share price is still increased 20% in the past 3 months.
Accordingly, HPG is trading at a 1-year forward forward P/E of 13.6 times, compared to the past average of 10.3 times.
We think the current high valuation is deserved given the improving fundamentals (rising demand, improving operating performance and expanding margins).
For PIB, HPG is trading at forward P/B of 2023-2024 times 1.4x and 1.3x respectively.
We maintain a target price of VND32,000, with upside potential of 22%.
Because the fundamentals have not changed and the recovery momentum is still on track, we raise our recommendation to Buy (from Increase weight) because we believe that HPG will be one of the businesses that benefit from investment activities public, with a clear recovery prospect.
🟩Falling stock prices provide an opportunity to accumulate shares
The recent decline in HPG stock price, in the context of the entire draft market, provides a good opportunity for investors to Buy shares based on the Company's clear recovery prospects and good position to benefit from public investment projects.
HSC maintains a target price of 32,000 VND (22% upside potential) and forecast.
We upgrade our recommendation for HPG to Buy (from Increase weight).
🟩Evaluation of business results in the second half of 2023
🔮HSC maintains its profit forecast for 2023 (Detailed information below), equivalent to net revenue and net profit in the second half of 2023 of VND 68,189 billion (up 13.8% over the same period and 21. 6% compared to the first half of the year) and VND 5,542 billion (an increase of 198.4% compared to the first half of the year and a reversal compared to a net loss of VND 3,766 billion in the last 6 months of 2022).
Profits are forecast to grow strongly thanks to improved consumption output (with the expectation that the Government will boost public investment while export output continues to be high) and increased profit margins (due to operating performance). improvements and lower initial costs begin to reflect).
🟩Maintain profit forecast for the period of 2023-2025
HSC maintains its profit forecast for the period 2023-2025 with net profit down 12.8% year-on-year this year but growing strongly by 92.9% and 16.8% in 2024-2025, respectively.
Accordingly, we forecast net revenue and net profit in 2023 to be VND 124,274 billion (down 12.1% over the same period) and VND 7,400 billion (down 12.8% over the same period), respectively.
In 2024-2025, we forecast net profit will reach VND 14,274 billion (92.9% growth) and VND 16,668 billion (16.8% growth), respectively.
🟩Valuations and recommendations
HSC maintains the target price according to the DCF method of VND 32,000 (Please see our Update Report released on August 10, 2023).
As HPG stock price dropped 7% after the recent market sell-off, upside potential now rises to 22%. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy from Overweight.
🟩After adjustment, HPG is trading with a 1-year forward P/E of 13.6 times, 0.7 standard deviations lower than the historical average of 10.3 times.
For P/B, HPG is trading at forward P/B of 2023-2024 of 1.4x and 1.3x, respectively.
Note, despite the current high 1-year forward P/E estimate, we see some positive signs of recovery in the current period, led by the recovery of sales volume, efficiency operating efficiency increases and input costs decrease.
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HPG - 1d 🔴
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