Summary: While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, July 1, 2021
Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30%
Good: High closing range after morning dip, higher high
Bad: Dip below 14,500 creating lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low
Candle: Bullish outside day follows an inside day, signals continuation
Advanced/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+0.81%), VIX (-2.34%)
Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.74%) and Utilities (XLU +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.13% gain after dipping in the morning. The morning dip created a long lower wick for the candle and a lower low for the day compared to the previous day. However, the index recovered and also made a new high. The body is 30% and longer than the previous day, creating a bullish outside day. That is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend but will need to be confirmed tomorrow after the jobs data. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes today, gaining +0.81%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52%, setting yet another record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.38%.
The VIX volatility index declined -2.34%.
Energy (XLE +1.74%) was at the top of the sector list. Utilities (XLU +1.09%) and Health (XLV +0.89%) were second and third, signaling some defensiveness in the market. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom.
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Economic Indicators
The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.19% for the day.
The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield advanced.
High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined.
Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced.
Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced.
Timber (Wood) advanced.
Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -4.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -7.41%.
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Investor Sentiment
The put/call ratio rose to 0.561. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish.
The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral.
The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 91.72.
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Market Leaders
Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the day, losing -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.29%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +0.26% and Apple (AAPL) gained +0.23%.
Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB), and Mastercard (MA) were the top mega-cap gainers. The top losers for mega-caps were Walmart (WMT), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), and Alibaba (BABA).
The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list were losers for the day. The biggest gainers were GrowGeneration (GRWG), Lemonade (LMND), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Paycom (PAYC). The biggest losers were Roku (ROKU), Palantir (PLTR), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU).
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Looking ahead
More economic data becomes available on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate will provide insights into the labor market recovery. Trade Balance data will also be released.
There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped below the 14,500 support area in the morning. However, it closed back above the area by the end of the session.
The five-day trend-line and trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.34% advance for Friday.
The one-day trend line results in a -0.02% decline.
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Wrap-up
All eyes this week are on Friday's job data. It seems the Nasdaq will decide which direction to move after seeing the data. With the morning dip resulting in buying that brought the index back above 14,500, the expectation is sideways or higher tomorrow. However, the jobs data may just bust that expectation.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Thursday, July 1, 2021
Facts: +0.13%, Volume lower, Closing range: 88%, Body: 30%
Good: High closing range after morning dip, higher high
Bad: Dip below 14,500 creating lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, lower low
Candle: Bullish outside day follows an inside day, signals continuation
Advanced/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks
Indexes: SPX (+0.52%), DJI (+0.38%), RUT (+0.81%), VIX (-2.34%)
Sectors: Energy (XLE +1.74%) and Utilities (XLU +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
While major indexes advanced for the day, there was some caution in the market as investors await the jobs data coming on Friday.
The Nasdaq closed the day with a +0.13% gain after dipping in the morning. The morning dip created a long lower wick for the candle and a lower low for the day compared to the previous day. However, the index recovered and also made a new high. The body is 30% and longer than the previous day, creating a bullish outside day. That is typically a continuation pattern in an uptrend but will need to be confirmed tomorrow after the jobs data. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) outperformed the other major indexes today, gaining +0.81%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained +0.52%, setting yet another record close. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) advanced +0.38%.
The VIX volatility index declined -2.34%.
Energy (XLE +1.74%) was at the top of the sector list. Utilities (XLU +1.09%) and Health (XLV +0.89%) were second and third, signaling some defensiveness in the market. Technology (XLK +0.17%) and Consumer Staples (XLP -0.30%) were at the bottom.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Economic Indicators
The US Dollar (DXY) rose +0.19% for the day.
The US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the 2y yield advanced.
High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG) and Investment Grade Corporate Bond (LQD) prices declined.
Silver (SILVER) declined, Gold (GOLD) advanced.
Crude Oil (CRUDEOIL1!) advanced.
Timber (Wood) advanced.
Copper (COPPER1!) and Aluminum (ALI1!) declined.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) declined -4.20%. Ethereum (ETHUSD) declined -7.41%.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Investor Sentiment
The put/call ratio rose to 0.561. The put/call ratio (PCCE) is a contrarian indicator that shows overly bullish or overly bearish investor behavior. The 0.7 level is considered normal. Below that level is overly bullish.
The CNN Fear & Greed index is on the fear side, moving back toward neutral.
The NAAIM money manager exposure index rose to 91.72.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) declined for the day, losing -0.21%. Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced +0.29%. Microsoft (MSFT) rose +0.26% and Apple (AAPL) gained +0.23%.
Nike (NKE), Oracle (ORCL), Facebook (FB), and Mastercard (MA) were the top mega-cap gainers. The top losers for mega-caps were Walmart (WMT), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), ASML Holding (ASML), and Alibaba (BABA).
The majority of growth stocks in the daily update list were losers for the day. The biggest gainers were GrowGeneration (GRWG), Lemonade (LMND), Digital Turbine (APPS), and Paycom (PAYC). The biggest losers were Roku (ROKU), Palantir (PLTR), UP Fintech (TIGR), and FUTU Holding (FUTU).
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
More economic data becomes available on Friday. Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, and the Unemployment Rate will provide insights into the labor market recovery. Trade Balance data will also be released.
There are no relevant earnings reports for the daily update on Friday.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq dipped below the 14,500 support area in the morning. However, it closed back above the area by the end of the session.
The five-day trend-line and trend-line from the 5/12 low leads to a +0.34% advance for Friday.
The one-day trend line results in a -0.02% decline.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
All eyes this week are on Friday's job data. It seems the Nasdaq will decide which direction to move after seeing the data. With the morning dip resulting in buying that brought the index back above 14,500, the expectation is sideways or higher tomorrow. However, the jobs data may just bust that expectation.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
