MSFT Setting Up for a Breakdown or Bounce - July 16

MSFT Setting Up for a Breakdown or Bounce – Key Option Levels in Play 💥

🔹 Options GEX Analysis (Tanuki GEX View):
* Gamma Resistance (Call Wall):
→ $510 is the highest GEX level, acting as a ceiling.
→ $507.5 is the 3rd Call Wall and minor resistance.
* PUT Walls and Gamma Support:
→ $502.5 = HVL (High Volume Level)
→ $500 = key strike with heavy Put interest
→ $497.5 and $492.5 = deeper support levels
* GEX Bias:
→ IVR = 23, IVx avg = 24.2
→ 0.4% Put Skew → Neutral bias with slight downside lean
→ If MSFT trades below $502.5, dealers may start to hedge short, increasing downside gamma pressure.
🟩 Option Trade Idea:
* Bearish Put Debit Spread:
Buy $505p / Sell $495p for next week
Entry near $503, looking for breakdown to $497.
* Neutral Fade:
Sell Call spread near $507.5–510 if price stays below $504 by open.

🔹 1-Hour Chart Trading Setup (Price Action):

* Structure:
MSFT printed a CHoCH after failing to break the $507 supply zone (order block).
Price lost trendline support and is testing $502 area again.
* Smart Money Concepts:
* BOS occurred into 506s before reversal
* CHoCH confirmed at $502
* Current price is consolidating just above $502. Break below signals weakness.
* Support Zones:
* 502.5 → 500 → 497.5
* Demand at 493–488
* Resistance Zones:
* 504.5 → 506.5 → 510
* Overhead OB rejection seen on last attempt
🟦 Intraday Trade Setup:
Bearish Breakdown Setup:
* Entry: Below $502
* Target: $497.5 → $493
* Stop-loss: $504.50
Reclaim & Squeeze Setup:
* Entry: If holds above $504.5
* Target: $507.5 → $510
* Stop-loss: $502
🧠 My Thoughts:
The failed breakout and CHoCH hint that MSFT may drift down unless it reclaims $504. With options GEX neutral-to-bearish and IV low, a fade toward 497.5–493 could be in play. However, if buyers step in at HVL $502.5 and flip the trendline, we may see a gamma squeeze attempt to $507–510.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with a plan and proper risk management.