NFLX: Bearish Reversal Setup - Macro Pressure & Volume Gap Risk

kelmarin

🕒 15 min & Daily Charts | 📅 May 5, 2025
Ticker: NASDAQ:NFLX

Netflix (NFLX) is flashing warning signs after a steep rally from the April lows. Price action has now rejected the $1,150–$1,155 zone, confirming a local top with divergence and bearish engulfing on the daily. On the 15-minute chart, we see clear Fibonacci levels being respected with a break below 0.382 followed by a rejection of the 0.236 zone.

🧠 Confluence of Bearish Factors:

Macro Headwind: Trump's proposed 100% tariff on foreign film production hits Netflix's cost model hard. This geopolitical risk could reduce margins (source: The Guardian, May 2025).

Volume Profile Analysis: Price is above a thin volume node with little support until the $1,000–$1,030 zone, increasing vulnerability to sharp drops.

Fibonacci Targets: Measured move from $1,151.68 → $1,107.08 gives downside Fibonacci extensions to:

🔻 1.236 – $1,094.76

🔻 1.382 – $1,087.13

🔻 1.786 – $1,066.04

🔻 2.0 – $1,054.85

Daily Rejection Candle: Today's -1.74% bearish candle completes a rising wedge breakdown.

🎯 30-Day Probabilistic Outlook:

🟢 Bull Case: $1,290 (20% probability, if tariffs fail or are watered down)

🟡 Base Case: $1,066.58 (50% probability – Fib target + volume support)

🔴 Bear Case: $979.59 or lower (30% probability – volume gap fill and macro fear)

💡 Playbook:

Intraday scalpers can short retests of $1,143–$1,146 (golden pocket).

Swing traders can target $1,066 and trail with 3-bar structure.

Add-on confirmation with VIX > 18 and Fed staying hawkish on May 7th.

📌 Not financial advice. For institutional and strategic educational use under the Wavervanir DSS framework.
#NFLX #ShortSetup #Fibonacci #MacroTrading #VolumeProfile #BearishReversal #WavervanirDSS #TradingView #AITrading

kelmarin

Nota

kelmarin

Dagangan aktif

📊 📉 Technical Breakdown Summary (15m & Daily Charts):

Breakdown from key Fib 0.236 and 0.382 levels on 15min chart.

Volume gap below $1,100 presents thin support.

Daily rejection candle aligned with macro bearish trigger.

EMA cluster far below current price, inviting mean reversion.

🧠 AI DSS Forecast:

✅ Current Price: $1,139.94

📉 15-Day: $1,064.59 (-6.6%)

📉 30-Day: $1,036.66 (-9.1%)

📬 Sentiment Score: 18 (Mild Bearish Bias)

📈 Visual model suggests a continued slope of devaluation as speculative premium unwinds and macro risk elevates.

🌐 Macro Catalysts (Bearish Weight):

🇺🇸 Proposed 100% tariff on foreign films by Trump administration adds cost pressure to international content strategy.

🏦 FOMC meeting on May 7th with low probability of rate cut; tight liquidity remains.

🧊 VIX > 17 threshold + low breadth = risk-off mode.

🎯 Playbook:

Short-term traders can target:

$1,087

$1,066

$1,054 (Fib & DSS confluence zone)

Longs should stay cautious unless price reclaims and closes above $1,146 on volume.

🧠 Wavervanir DSS Summary:
The AI model is trained on LSTM + Volume Profile + ORB + SMC logic and retrained every 7 days. Price forecasts are prescriptive and sentiment-aware. Expecting downside acceleration unless macro reverses sharply.

📌 Not financial advice. Algorithmic model-driven analysis for institutional strategy.
#NFLX #Bearish #AITrading #VolumeProfile #WavervanirDSS #Fibonacci #SmartMoneyConcepts #PropFirm #MarketPrediction #Quant #TradingView

kelmarin

Nota

🔍 Options Flow Analysis (as of May 5, 2025)
Notable Flows Summary:

Bearish Bias dominates the short-dated flow:

Sell 900C (May 9) – $238k: Strong bet that NFLX stays well below $900.

Buy 1040P To Open (May 9) – $239k: Betting on a rapid decline toward or below $1040.

Buy 1140P (June 6) – $178k: Positioning for sustained weakness.

Mixed Calls but all OTM, possibly hedges or speculative fades:

Buy 1140C & 1175C (May 9/16)

Buy 1200C (May 30): Long shot bullish plays — likely cheap hedges or gamma scalps.

Sweeps at Sell 1100C (Aug 15) – $607k and Buy 1040P (May 9) – $239k show institutional conviction on downside.

kelmarin

Nota

The current outlook on NFLX is more bearish for the following converging reasons across technicals, machine learning, and market sentiment:

🔻 1. Machine Learning Model (WaverVanir DSS)
30-Day Forecast: $1,036.66 (−9.1%)

The DSS model incorporates LSTM, sentiment score, and volume profile data, projecting a consistent downward trend.

This aligns with mean reversion logic after a parabolic April rally.

🔻 2. Technical Analysis
Daily Chart: Price rejected from $1,150 zone with a bearish engulfing candle.

Volume Profile: Thin support zone between $1,120–$1,060, increasing the risk of rapid downside movement.

Fibonacci Levels: 1.236 ($1,094), 1.618 ($1,074), and 2.0 ($1,054) provide clean technical downside targets.

Momentum Shift: Price failing to hold the golden pocket at 0.382 and 0.236 on the 15-min chart confirms early weakness.

🔻 3. Options Flow
Bearish Premiums Dominate:

Buy 1040 Put To Open ($239K) – Confident downside bet by Friday.

Sell 900 Call & 1000 Call – Betting price stays well below current levels.

Largest flow: Sell 1100 Call (Aug 15) for $607K = longer-term bearish conviction.

Calls purchased are OTM (e.g., 1175C, 1200C) – suggesting speculative or hedged plays, not directional conviction.

🔻 4. Macro Environment
Trump’s Proposed Tariffs: 100% tax on foreign film production increases operating costs for NFLX, especially as 50–60% of its production is international.

FOMC May 7th: Low probability of rate cut (~3–5%). If Fed stays hawkish, high-growth names like NFLX are pressured due to valuation compression.

🧠 Final Verdict:
NFLX is decisively bearish short to medium term (next 2–4 weeks).

kelmarin

Nota

High Conviction Trade.

kelmarin

Nota

6 jam lalu

Nota

DSS still bearish, still holding a put here. This became low conviction trade.