Stocks - The Fall

Idea for SPX:
You know the story of the Fall.
It's the top.
The Great Tribulation Sept.17, 2021.

- $AAPL historically marked tops in US markets:

- Ending Diagonal:

- Oil, broader market, yields, commodities, risk currencies rolling over or collapsing:

- Volatility, haven currencies, gold and bonds correlating and turning up:

- USA is in a 1-to-1 analog of Japan's bubble:

'It will be different this time'

GLHF
- DPT

Dagangan aktif:

Wave 1: 3300, Jul. 14, 2021
Wave 2: 3800
Wave 3: 1888-2222, Sept. 17, 2021
Wave 4: 2700
Wave 5: 666, Dec. 22, 2022

Wave 5 is uncertain this motive wave, but Wave 1 2 3 are certain.

Dagangan aktif:

Jul 21 VIX expiration + MRNA SP inclusion. Strong impulse.

Dagangan aktif:

Aug 22, 2021...
"Once in a blue moon."

Dagangan aktif:

Now we have highest bullish asset allocation ever, lowest bearish asset allocation ever, highest margin debt ever.

"Markets sell off when there are no more buyers"

The only buyers left are dip buyers...

There are no more dips...

Dagangan aktif:

Here we go. Interest rate swap volatility (SRVIX) spikes 40%.

These signal tightening of credit and coincide with big market reversals, and right now it does appear to lean to the downside.

It also leads the DXY for big moves.

Telling of monetary policy change. Fed has been signaling taper/tightening.

If tapering or rate hike is announced in September, I would expect markets to price it in in August.

Dagangan aktif:

8/13 for next leg down:

MRNA:

Dagangan aktif:

Friday the 13th.

Divergences in Vol instruments: