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Happy New Year 2017

SP:SPX   Indeks S&P 500
85 2 6

See the 2016 Results since joining tradingview.com an my outlook for 2017.
Komen: You will find the results here:

Komen: I will follow up the next days for 2017th outlook.
Komen: 2016 in the beginning was a centralbank-driven market until November 9th than followed by a politics-driven market. 2017 in my opinion could start as a politics-driven market affected by right wing populism and end later this year by a central-bank driven market. Traders need to deal with facts and figures. To survive in 2017 means to follow strictly about what might affect the stockmarkets and to put the own political opinion on the side - anytime.

The PSEi is showing us how this works - in extreme.

You can see a pre-election rally until August 2016, even most of the details (!) about Rodrigo Duterte are known before as he got eleceted. He is also still backed by the majoritiy of Philippine people. He is well known as "Trump light".

Even Investors all this might have known before they ignored the facts and bought into this rally until the first days in August 2016. In a public speech on August 6th. Rodrigo Duterte threatens journalists and members of opposition parties to get killed. This was the day international investors could not ignore longer that politics might affect their investments and start pulling out money from the Philippine Stockmarkets. On August 8 2016 i put a "Sell" on PSEi but at this time i was not a member here on tradingview.com

The PSEi might be a bellwether what can happen to a stockmarket if populism get´s out of control.

But make no mistake: If ever there are signs, that there might be any kind of impeachment for Rodrigo Duterte or that he might be forced to resign this stockmarket will go up 10-20% in some days only or maybe in one day only.

The fundamentals for the overall country are still strong. If Investors are forced to pull out money than this will have other reasons than economy and this is a conflict of interests. And excately this will happen to any investor in stockmarkets all over 2017 - in my opinion.

Back to the "Bellwether" issue:

I does´nt matter if you like Donald Trump or not. He is setting the tone and taking the lead at least in the first 100 days after inauguration on Feb. 20th. Additionally Trump is using twitter that means you might have only seconds to make any decission about sell or buy. Only thinking: "I like what he said" or "I can´t hear this anymore" might cost you a lot of your own money if ever you have a long or short position active. To survive 2017 mean to ignore the own political opinion strictly and to focus on how the market will think about what Donald Trump is saying. I doesn´t matter if i like what he says or not.

The PSEi as a bellwether is showing that a stockmarket is going up in the pre-election presidential campaing and in the first weeks after "inauguration" ---> also.
Komen: US-Presidential Election Cycle 2017:
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http://www.bigtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/081816-dow-jones-election-years.png

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2016 most of Retail Investors missed to participate the upmove in most stockmarkets. Right now it´s getting popular to use the Presidential Election Cycle for 2017. This Cycle is giving some guidance that the overall trend might be down in he next 3-6 month following most retail investors mood to short any stockmarket.

But there are some doubts about this. Donald Trump´s Intention is a bit of to be "loved by everyone". One of his last tweets was finished by his own words: "Thank you. Donald". For my opinion what investors might underestimate that in the first 100 days Donald Trump will try to make anything right to be backed by the most achievable high percentage numbers of american people to show, what he called his ---> "enemies" are only a minority.

For my opinion the first 100 days for Trump himself means to get a high approval of US people. If ever he start talking about this on twitter than maybe the markets are close to a peak. If ever he gots the highes possible approval Trump might believe this will last for all of the rest of his presidency and maybe this might be the right time to start shorting the US-Marktes.

If ever Donald Trump is trying to be something like "everybody´s darling" than this might be followed by more inflows into stock market funds - and this additionlly to the still huge stock repurchase programs wich are still active.
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Investors favor stock funds over bonds, reversing 2016 tren

"We probably could see this trend continue through the end of the year and then into the inauguration," said David Mazza, head of ETF and mutual fund research at State Street Global Advisors. "Then, from there, it's what will those first 100 days look like."

Source: http://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/investors-favor-stock-funds-over-bonds,-reversing-2016-trend-450425

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Dow Jones 4 Year Election Cycle

http://www.bigtrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/081816-dow-jones-four-year-cycle.png
Komen: German largest Newspaper today is saying this:

Trump tweets like a rockstar!

Bild also mention a statement of Sean Spicer, saying that mainstream media getting mad about Trumps tweets. Trump give all information directely to the public. There is nothing left what media can report about.

Source: http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/headlines/trump-twitter-praesident-49560890.bild.html
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So Traders need to learn and understand that they need to follow Trump on twitter if ever they want grap some seconds bevor Markets will react to this news.

What traders need to learn about: In the 60ies maybe it last two weeks, until news about any crisis found theire way in the news. In the 70ies maybe two days. In the 80ies maybe 2 hours. With the www in the 90ies and from mIllenium until now maybe 2 minuts.

Gues how much time you have with Trump tweets?

It will be less than 2 seconds.

Watch out folks and take good care,

Harald

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Komen: Record Inflows in ETF´s will global fuel any rally in major stockmarket Indexes

Quote:

ETFs globally gather record cash in 2016 -BlackRock
Economy58 minutes ago (Jan 03, 2017 05:00PM ET)
By Trevor Hunnicutt

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors funneled $375 billion into exchange-traded funds in 2016, investment manager BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) said on Tuesday, a global record that came as investors looked to cut costs.

The total, which is preliminary, compares with $348 billion in 2015 and includes a record $286 billion haul in the United States, home to the funds' biggest market.
ETFs are a basket of stocks or other assets traded by individual investors and institutions. Fund managers from BlackRock to Vanguard and Schwab offer index ETFs that try to track, not beat, the market. They have sliced management fees on some funds to as little as $3 annually for every $10,000 managed. All three companies announced price cuts last year.
Those low fees along with other cost savings and conveniences have helped the more than $3 trillion ETF business take assets from rival financial products, including actively managed funds that attempt to beat the market but may fall short of that goal.
U.S.-based active stock funds recorded $288 billion in withdrawals in 2016, the largest on record, according to preliminary Thomson Reuters Lipper data through November.
ETF issuers were also able to draw investors into "smart beta" products that often attempt to beat the markets but do so based on a set of rules governing how they invest, rather than a portfolio manager making those calls. The products can be pricier for investors than traditional index funds while still undercutting active managers.

"The fact that we're at new-record inflows with such a slow start is a pretty strong reversal," said David Perlman, an ETF researcher at UBS.

Markets started 2016 in bad shape, after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates and as oil prices cratered. Stocks managed to rebound from a February low, but events including the U.S. presidential race and the British vote to exit the European Union kept investors skittish.

Money moved to the perceived safety of the fixed-income market, and BlackRock's early data showed bond ETFs taking in a record $115 billion in 2016.

BlackRock, with $1.3 trillion in global ETF assets, is the largest provider of such funds. Its iShares ETF brand attracted $140 billion globally during the year, BlackRock said, describing that figure as a record.
In the U.S., BlackRock attracted $105 billion into ETFs during the year, followed by Vanguard's $94 billion, State Street's $52 billion and Schwab's $16 billion, according to separate estimates by FactSet Research Systems Inc.

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/etfs-globally-gather-record-cash-in-2016--blackrock-450930
Komen: "Sell the Inauguration" ....

Todays Presidential approval rates showing very clear that Donald Trump is the most unpopular President since at least 40 years. Even Trump is blaming again "the polls" as rigged he has a similar situation in the election campaign. First he blamed "rigged polls" than he fired his team.
US-Congressmen and Women are elected for two years only. They will not follow a president with such low approaval rates for a longer time. Expect that Trump will stop his agressive tweets and become more calm for some weeks and month. If ever this might occur now than expect stockmarkets to go higher.

Quote:
Trump Enters Office With Historically Low Approval Rating

by Mark Murray

Donald Trump starts his presidency Friday with the lowest-ever ratings for an incoming president, but also with some signs of increasing optimism for the country, according to results from a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
A majority of Americans — 52 percent — say they disapprove of the way President-elect Trump has handled his transition and preparations for the presidency, versus just 44 percent who approve, which is down six points from only a month ago.
To put Trump's numbers into perspective, Barack Obama's approval rating was 71 percent before he took the oath of office in January 2009, and Bill Clinton's was 77 percent in December 1992.
(The NBC/WSJ poll didn't measure George W. Bush during his transition; his first job-approval rating, in March 2001, was 57 percent.)

Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/trump-enters-office-historically-low-rating-n708071
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