TMV is a Super-Simple Way to Short the Bond Market
Bond yields are screaming upward, and they won't slow down until they overtake the rate of inflation - so we are basically at 5%+ on a T-bill right now, and probably headed toward double digits by end of winter. Yields Up = Prices Down. Short them until inflation returns to about 2%.
Shorting bonds is of course a little hard for a retail investor, but I have a couple of ETFs that work very well for it. TMV and TTT have proven quite profitable. TMV is up 114.5% in the last 12 months, and about 59.23% YTD. TTT has similar numbers, just some admin fee differences, up 116.5% in last 12 months, and 59.64% YTD.
When these start to level off, just sell the shares and flip all of it into whole $1k bonds. As yields begin to go downward, the values of new-issued / higher-yielding bonds will go to the moon. I made about an 85% return in 3 months in June 2020 doing the same strategy, I shorted them on the way down in June, then bought everything so cheap that I actually had internal interest 12% yields coming off from what I was actually buying Corporate AA+ bonds for. By October, I sold that stuff for ginormous gains when everyone realized the sky wasn't falling.
Using the same approach - I recommend shorting the snot out of real estate too. Technical indicators are pointing toward 10% +/- first mortgage rates by January, and that will kill the housing prices. DRV is a good short ETF tool.
TTT
TMV
Apologies - I should have posted this a couple of months ago, but people tend to want to see trend/evidence.. I jumped in these around May.
Shorting bonds is of course a little hard for a retail investor, but I have a couple of ETFs that work very well for it. TMV and TTT have proven quite profitable. TMV is up 114.5% in the last 12 months, and about 59.23% YTD. TTT has similar numbers, just some admin fee differences, up 116.5% in last 12 months, and 59.64% YTD.
When these start to level off, just sell the shares and flip all of it into whole $1k bonds. As yields begin to go downward, the values of new-issued / higher-yielding bonds will go to the moon. I made about an 85% return in 3 months in June 2020 doing the same strategy, I shorted them on the way down in June, then bought everything so cheap that I actually had internal interest 12% yields coming off from what I was actually buying Corporate AA+ bonds for. By October, I sold that stuff for ginormous gains when everyone realized the sky wasn't falling.
Using the same approach - I recommend shorting the snot out of real estate too. Technical indicators are pointing toward 10% +/- first mortgage rates by January, and that will kill the housing prices. DRV is a good short ETF tool.
TTT
TMV
Apologies - I should have posted this a couple of months ago, but people tend to want to see trend/evidence.. I jumped in these around May.
