All right y'all let's get into this. The pattern that Tesla has been carving out has been dubious to say the least. Constant overlap with the appearance of 5 wave moves just to turn out as another corrective wave. To say this type of price action is frustrating is an understatement, but as my mentor often says, "Trading for profit is hard". If it was easy everyone would do it.
I'm sure many are wondering about the title, and yes, I do believe there is a high probability we open with a gap down tomorrow. The primary reason is where we are in the count and where the index's are in their count. The NASDAQ for instance, has ALOT of catching up to do with the S&P if their respected counts are to stay similar. As of now Tesla looks like it needs 2-3 more lows to finish this micro 5 wave count. I expect us to drop to around the 0.382 in the low $250's - high $240's before we retrace for a minor 2 (could be tiny or big...it's a wave 2). Then BOOM, wave 3 of 3 starts and that target is $211.65 down to the 1.618 @ $203.17. Ultimately this thing could just absolutely tank with an extremely tiny wave 2.
So far bulls have been stubborn and don't want to admit defeat. However, the facts are starting to pile up against them and they are starting to falter. This is evident in the MACD as this whole move up from the $234 bottom has been on neg div. & choppy/overlapping as hell. When they finally give up and start to sell it will be swift giving little room for entry.
Before you take any sizable position though wait for confirmation we're headed lower. Below $251 and we have that confirmation, not that we are dropping hard but that we are in fact back in the down trend and wave (2) is finally over. This just so happens to line up with our wave 1 of (3) of C target and a very likely place for me to sell my puts before the small retrace. If we are moving down with great strength, there is a chance I hold through the retrace for 3 of (3) but we will just have to see what kind of action we are getting.
The chart above shows that we tagged the 1.382 fib extension, tagged the 0.786 fib retracement, and broke the lower channel. These are good signs we have topped but aren't guarantees. On the micro level, it looks like a 1-2, 1-2 are in place and working on extending out in a three now. This is where breaching $251 will make things much clearer (but when is Tesla ever that nice to us). The 2.618 for this micro move down is just above the 0.382 mentioned previously and the 2.786 is right on it creating fib confluence and helping to corroborate this thesis (2.618 is a common ending for this type of extension).
At this juncture though, I just don't see ANY bullish structures to take us higher, which is another reason why I have had no issues holding these puts. That and they make up a very small % of my portfolio. If y'all are nervous from the time you place an order to the time you exit it, you're either trading on a whim (extremely dangerous) or you're trading with outsized positions. THIS WILL AFFECT YOUR DECISION MAKING! Don't do it lol. Use stops and protect yourselves. Have a plan for entry AND exit. Otherwise, you're going in all halfcocked and that has never been good for anyone.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
I'm sure many are wondering about the title, and yes, I do believe there is a high probability we open with a gap down tomorrow. The primary reason is where we are in the count and where the index's are in their count. The NASDAQ for instance, has ALOT of catching up to do with the S&P if their respected counts are to stay similar. As of now Tesla looks like it needs 2-3 more lows to finish this micro 5 wave count. I expect us to drop to around the 0.382 in the low $250's - high $240's before we retrace for a minor 2 (could be tiny or big...it's a wave 2). Then BOOM, wave 3 of 3 starts and that target is $211.65 down to the 1.618 @ $203.17. Ultimately this thing could just absolutely tank with an extremely tiny wave 2.
So far bulls have been stubborn and don't want to admit defeat. However, the facts are starting to pile up against them and they are starting to falter. This is evident in the MACD as this whole move up from the $234 bottom has been on neg div. & choppy/overlapping as hell. When they finally give up and start to sell it will be swift giving little room for entry.
Before you take any sizable position though wait for confirmation we're headed lower. Below $251 and we have that confirmation, not that we are dropping hard but that we are in fact back in the down trend and wave (2) is finally over. This just so happens to line up with our wave 1 of (3) of C target and a very likely place for me to sell my puts before the small retrace. If we are moving down with great strength, there is a chance I hold through the retrace for 3 of (3) but we will just have to see what kind of action we are getting.
The chart above shows that we tagged the 1.382 fib extension, tagged the 0.786 fib retracement, and broke the lower channel. These are good signs we have topped but aren't guarantees. On the micro level, it looks like a 1-2, 1-2 are in place and working on extending out in a three now. This is where breaching $251 will make things much clearer (but when is Tesla ever that nice to us). The 2.618 for this micro move down is just above the 0.382 mentioned previously and the 2.786 is right on it creating fib confluence and helping to corroborate this thesis (2.618 is a common ending for this type of extension).
At this juncture though, I just don't see ANY bullish structures to take us higher, which is another reason why I have had no issues holding these puts. That and they make up a very small % of my portfolio. If y'all are nervous from the time you place an order to the time you exit it, you're either trading on a whim (extremely dangerous) or you're trading with outsized positions. THIS WILL AFFECT YOUR DECISION MAKING! Don't do it lol. Use stops and protect yourselves. Have a plan for entry AND exit. Otherwise, you're going in all halfcocked and that has never been good for anyone.
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Dagangan aktif:
Stop limit for all puts set at 2.2 for a small profit
Dagangan ditutup: hentian tercapai:
Stop triggered. Will look at re-entering after we have confirmation of our downward path
Komen:
Looks like we need another 4 & 5 on neg div before I call this 5 waves. I could be one degree off which is why I set a tight stop earlier. Either way we should have a small retrace up soon with 3 waves if this count is correct. However, we don't have confirmation we're on our way down quite yet
Komen:
Structurally it looks like 5 down. Now a 3 wave move up is needed next and then I'll short with puts
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Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
Bonam Fortunam,
--Tyler
