Jan WillemDe Korver

UK oil 2017: week 6

FX:UKOIL   Minyak Mentah (Brent)
92 0 4
We are getting close to this 60 target I am calling now since a couple of weeks. It seems from a technical point of view we (bulls) are slight on the upper hand. However with everyone being long we all know how sensitive we are for negative news.

Two things that I noted down in my personal agenda.
1. It seems IRAN is getting more and more back on the geopolitical agenda. Especially when talking oil             it is. I wonder; is IRAN sooner or later going to have new sanctions in place? Are we already pricing this in the oil? Should we? With the muslimban of US it seems we are back at a more confrontational period which likely means more instability.
2. Negative EIA             report and oil             price up: I had the last EIA             report as bearish and initially the market responded like this but after 20 minutes the oil             price turned up. This is a pattern we are seeing for the last weeks. One could ask himself the question: what if we do get a good news / report (not likely to happen we know till June / May but still)

ok bref, the prediction for the week: Short retreat (monday's just tend to sell a bit) then we hit the trend line we broke and we go up. Not going to reach the 59-61 area this week but if we don't get any major negative news surprise we are gradually getting there. However from there on I can't help to feel that the market will sell off to cash in on some gains!
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