6 month outlook for us30

10 Jul 2022

Price touched down at the yearly low and immediately bounced. However, there is still a gap on the yearly chart from last year and the 2020 yearly candle that can be filled in. On the weekly chart there is a IOFED candle and liquidity gap from a bearish candle that needs to be filled in. price will go up fill it in then reverse and head down again to fill in the gap and revisit last years low, then eventually bounce and start moving bullish again. If price does not pass the current high at 31885.0 then price will reverse to the low target or maybe later in the month during FOMC it'll reach the temporary high target and continue to consolidate for the remainder of the month then august will start the descent.

COT Report:
-Dow Jones:
-non-commercials added 52 short positions and 2,000 long positions 11053 long vs 34136 short
-commercials CLOSED 1600 long positions and added 457 short positions. 45425 long vs 17871 short

what this means to me: Commercials are closing long positions because their long positions have already began activating at last years low and they now that price will start to reverse bullish for a little in the mean time they add short positions while price pushes up so that when it eventually reverse the short positions get activated on the way down again. Dealers add opposite positions based on the trend so that when it reverse those positions get activated at numerous price levels.

Fundamental confluence:
1. Improved nfp report 357k jobs added instead of last months 2xxk.
2. stagnate unemployment rate
3. better than forecasted job openings
predictions:
Lower inflation reports, higher retail sales, interest rates remain the same for July, Biden administration tackling corporations price gouging, energy market turning, gas prices decline temporarily.

14 Jul 2022

Dagangan aktif

Since we did not pass the high by tuesday, my low target is active one im seeking.