Whether GBP/USD will go to 1.20 or EUR/USD to 1.16 or AUD/USD to 0.7600 is arguable. But what if there is a pair which has no other path but down without any argument in favor. USD/JPY has nothing working in its favor.
Why downward path is of the least resistance?
- BOJ can't do much as of now.
- Abenomics is out of arrows or soon will be.
- BOJ tried to devalue the currency by only one thing and that is massive QE program ( Nomenclature may be different but, what's in a name? that which we call a stimulus, by any other name would just inject more cheap money into the system ). But when every other central bank is doing the same thing then there isn't any relative advantage.
- Fed is no longer BOJ friend and might turn foe if changes the stance and cuts.
- US treasury yields are not going down but sinking like!
Now BOJ can do whatever they like to do but it will just delay the inevitable and can't change the trajectory. Every meaningful bounce in USD/JPY is a sell
So, 95 before thanksgiving then?
Why downward path is of the least resistance?
- BOJ can't do much as of now.
- Abenomics is out of arrows or soon will be.
- BOJ tried to devalue the currency by only one thing and that is massive QE program ( Nomenclature may be different but, what's in a name? that which we call a stimulus, by any other name would just inject more cheap money into the system ). But when every other central bank is doing the same thing then there isn't any relative advantage.
- Fed is no longer BOJ friend and might turn foe if changes the stance and cuts.
- US treasury yields are not going down but sinking like!
Now BOJ can do whatever they like to do but it will just delay the inevitable and can't change the trajectory. Every meaningful bounce in USD/JPY is a sell
So, 95 before thanksgiving then?
