Long USDJPY setup - End of wave-A
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USDJPY has performed fairly well since the fresh crash that took place Jan/03/2019. The bulls took the lead since then to perform a 5-wave bull trend that finished Apr/24 due to safe-heaven demand that boosted the Yen. Now we're in for a possible ABC correction.
As you can see on the chart, a possible target for a wave-B is the narrow range between 111.677 - 111.711. That range is comprised by the 78.6% Fib-Ret of wave-A, as well as the 100% extension of wave-5 (prior bull trend) taken from the wave-A low.
The wave-A seems to be complete with daily momentum extremely oversold on Stochastic, and price reaching the 61.8% level from the prior bull trend, a signal the possible wave-B should start soon. According to a dual time frame momentum analysis (Daily/hourly), we had an opportunity to go long on May/13 at 11:00 am NY, as a bullish momentum reversal took place on the hourly chart stochastic, just as the Daily stochastic is OS, but I decided to wait for a next bullish momentum reversal on the hourly chart just to make sure the possible wave-A is complete.
As of now (05/14/2019 - 09:45 pm NY), the daily stochastic is still extremely OS hinting that the downside should be limited, and the hourly stochastic is plunging toward the OS zone. The next bullish reversal may be a good opportunity to get on the flow and trade the possible wave-B as we have momentum, pattern, price and time at our side.
The bad news that prompted the safe-haven demand toward the Yen seems to be already priced in. Recently, we had a daily bullish momentum reversal on the Dollar Index, risk-on mood is slowly coming back to the market, and USDJPY seems ready to start the wave-B. I'll update that setup on the chart as it goes on. I'll let you know the entry point, protective stop and trade management as the setup develops.
The world is yours. Trade it!
As you can see on the chart, a possible target for a wave-B is the narrow range between 111.677 - 111.711. That range is comprised by the 78.6% Fib-Ret of wave-A, as well as the 100% extension of wave-5 (prior bull trend) taken from the wave-A low.
The wave-A seems to be complete with daily momentum extremely oversold on Stochastic, and price reaching the 61.8% level from the prior bull trend, a signal the possible wave-B should start soon. According to a dual time frame momentum analysis (Daily/hourly), we had an opportunity to go long on May/13 at 11:00 am NY, as a bullish momentum reversal took place on the hourly chart stochastic, just as the Daily stochastic is OS, but I decided to wait for a next bullish momentum reversal on the hourly chart just to make sure the possible wave-A is complete.
As of now (05/14/2019 - 09:45 pm NY), the daily stochastic is still extremely OS hinting that the downside should be limited, and the hourly stochastic is plunging toward the OS zone. The next bullish reversal may be a good opportunity to get on the flow and trade the possible wave-B as we have momentum, pattern, price and time at our side.
The bad news that prompted the safe-haven demand toward the Yen seems to be already priced in. Recently, we had a daily bullish momentum reversal on the Dollar Index, risk-on mood is slowly coming back to the market, and USDJPY seems ready to start the wave-B. I'll update that setup on the chart as it goes on. I'll let you know the entry point, protective stop and trade management as the setup develops.
The world is yours. Trade it!
Dagangan aktif
The hourly Stochastic made another bullish reversal as of 07:00 am WT, my sleeping time, so I decided to move to the 3h chart for an entry trigger. On the 3h stochastic, a bullish momentum reversal happened at the 11:00 am WT candle, so we have a go!Trade description: It's a two units trade. I call them ST-Unit (Short term unit) and LT-Unit (Long term unit). I always trade with two units. You will understand better with the trade management description.
Entry and trade management time frame: 3h.
Entry point: 109.785 (Swing-high prior to the bullish reversal).
Stop: 109.005 (Swing-low prior to the bullish reversal)
Capital exposure: 78 pips - 1% total equity.
ST-Unit trade management:
Trade objective: In case it's just a small correction, it usually finishes around the 50% of the previous wave-A. The 50% Fib-Ret of wave-A coincides with the 38.2% Fib-Ret of the previous bull trend, forming a narrow range between 110.534 - 110.710. As soon as price gets to that range I'll trail the stop at the previous candle low, always considering the spread.
LT- Unit trade management:
Trade objective: In case it's a long corrective wave-B, it usually finishes at the 100% extension of wave-5 (Prior bull trend). The wave-5 100% extension coincides with the 78.6% Fib-Ret of wave-A, forming a narrow range between 111.677 - 111.711. As soon as price gets to that range I'll trail the stop at the previous candle low, considering spread.
Risk management: If the trade get triggered, keep an eye on the daily ATR (Average True Range), when price crosses the daily ATR limit, move stops on both units to break-even. As the trade goes on, I'll update the status of the stop on the LT-unit.
As you can see, I don
Dagangan aktif
Continuation... As you can see, I don't set targets. Instead, I look for ranges where we may get a possible reversal and trail the stop as price gets there. It helps you stay on the trade for longer, and take decisions based on information the market provides as the trade goes on. A target is just a guess, that's the best it is. Always take care of the losses and let the market take you out of the trade. The profits take care of themselves.
Dagangan aktif
Long position triggered May/16 - 08:00 am WT. Daily momentum bullish, 3h momentum OB with bearish reversal, possible pullback unfolding. Watch for daily ATR as to when to adjust stops to break-even.
Penafian
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