claydoctor
Singkat

usdjpy abenomics distortion

FX:USDJPY   Dolar U.S/ Yen Jepun
149 0 8
The wider view can reveal truths, that everyday close up trading do not tell us. RSI is more true to the facts than price action. And the dollar leads the markets, especially in terms of Yen. The SPY             and USDJPY             are more closely correlated than SPY             and DXY             . Not sure why really, but there it is. This chart would look more normal without the Abenomics distortion, which really took hold November 23013. The blue consolidation triangle should have failed and turned down, but it didn't, as it was manipulated upward. We are now seeing reality set in, because there have been more more arrows in Abe's holder for a while now. IMO             the pattern will complete to the trend line . Perhaps this is the reality reset the markets need. Stocks do not stand alone, currencies are intertwined now huge. Trump knows he needs rates to stay low , and the dollar weaker, instead of an obvious tax. There is a repatriot lower tax in the works to give big corp big breaks if they bring back the money to use for his infrastructure costs. And the help with trade, a lower dollar will make USA made goods cost less to the world, so we can make things again and sell them. What is the point of creatyingmore manufacturing jobs, when USA made goods cost to much to export? The rest of the world has helped there economies for years by lowering their currencies, now its the USA turn, and Trump is letting everyone know that. If you want to be a friend to the USA, buy our stuff, and we will create incentives to do that (by lower the dollar). But the trade off is a much lower stock market, but that is OK because corps are fat with cash and can survive it, even just buy their own stocks to support price. The game is on. Lower dollar, lower stocks, higher oil             (maybe) and more exporting, low rates forever maybe, Gold             higher, Volatility up, as all this transition and change adds market risk. But if the FED raises rates now, watch out, that cannot happen, because the debt would double, triple, etc with every percentage point up. That would spoil the plan, that is why you heard the make nice with Yellen tweets. You can stay on, just keep rates low at all costs. Always just IMO             .
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