From firstname.lastname@example.org - Correction was irregular flat (A)-(B) & (C) wave-which is close its end & 113 to play a very important role.
300 + pips in sideways UJ movement since 114.82 top on 30th Nov2016
Hitting the Bulls Eye-1000 points in the Nikkei Index from 18350's to 19280's as expected upside before it falls
Having Key 20015- Going below 19000- shall be the first clue that Nikkei wants to move down
Post an impulsive move down from 116.12 to 114.74 - its consolidating so, I shall be looking for break of rising trendline & targets of 113.30-113.50 zone.
There is a slight change we shall book profits in the zone 114.20-114.30 zone & shall watch the price action -if it goes below 114 & sustains down, then we shall look for 113.30 as next target else UJ could push up again that will indicate the bulls aren't giving up easily.
Broken trendline acting as resistance - UJ should not move above 115.50 that is strict stops if it has to touch the targets of 114.20--114.30 first
Alternate Path or Plan-B
Path shown below could be an alternate where 5th wave itself gets subdivided- currently running into 2nd wave within 5th wave which likely should complete close to 114.20-114.30 as the possible target zone shown above.
Once U.S. Fed raises interest- & UJ starts moving above 115.50 -it could zoom up to 118.50-119 where it travels 161.8% of wave -1 which topped at 116.12-that will indicate that bulls won't be giving easily.
Also 113--113.10 is an important zone for UJ on the downside.
Against 115.50- Strict Upside Resistance - we can expect downside move going into close by zone of 114.30-114.50- still open
As soon as UJ crosses 115.50- key level upside -it is open for higher targets initially for 116.80-117 & above 118.90
The rally from 113.12 to 116.12 will be retraced 50% in the zone 114.60-114.65
& shall be retraced 61.8% in the zone 114.05-114.25 these are likely targets before UJ resumes upside move keeping 115.50 as key short term resistance & 113.10 as key support. As any move above 115.50 shall be a strong clue that UJ wants to rally upside & targets could be 116.90-117 first & staying above 117 -can head to 118.90.
Also the downside support is 113.10 against this level, we are expecting upside targets, so 113.10 should not be breached downside.
Key level is 115.50 - keep in mind if UJ goes above 115.50 -it should not move again below 115.50 & crosses 116.12 then for sure it is extending upside else going below 115- we can have target as set above 114.00-114.25 - Here also - 113.10 is the key level downside -if breached then it will indicate UJ has put the top & shall move down in coming sessions.
Downside -113.30 Key support
Upside- 115.50 key resistance
At 117.70 -It travels the same distance as wave -1 in current running wave-5
220 pips -an explosive rally in UJ as expected before FED
At 119.50 - 3rd wave travels 161.8%, which is likely the next target level
Scenario-1 -If goes below 117.39
Looks like a 3rd wave is getting subdivided- completes internal wave-iv in the range 116.30-116.40 where it travels 61.8% of current rise from 114.70.
Scenario-2 -Going Above 118.25 - shall resume the upside move towards 119.50 marks
Going above 117.90 it travels 118.60 & beyond 118.67 -it travels 119.55 where it travels 161.8% of pink wave-1
Alternate Scenario- Triangle in formation & bullish against 116.55 lows intact for thrust upside to 119.50-120 zone. This happens if 118.25 is intact & UJ fails to go beyond that mark -means it wants spend some more time in a sideways move before moving higher.
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ