AbhishekHSinghCMT
Singkat

USDJPY- Close to Biggest Fall Supported by Nikkei Below 113

FX:USDJPY   Dolar U.S/ Yen Jepun
1330 28 24
It seems the irregular structure a triangle in wave-4 will give us an important clue once it starts moving below 113 marks can lead to biggest fall in 2017-2018, which is even visible from Intermarket Relations- taking into consideration Nikkei Index.

From lows@98.78 - Correction was irregular flat (A)-(B) & (C) wave-which is close its end & 113 to play a very important role.
300 + pips in sideways UJ movement since 114.82 top on 30th Nov2016


Hitting the Bulls Eye-1000 points in the Nikkei Index from 18350's to 19280's as expected upside before it falls
Having Key Resistance Level 20015- Going below 19000- shall be the first clue that Nikkei wants to move down

Perdagangan aktif: 17:41 Hrs 13th Dec2016

Last Price@115.32

Day's High@116.12

Post an impulsive move down from 116.12 to 114.74 - its consolidating so, I shall be looking for break of rising trendline & targets of 113.30-113.50 zone.

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 19:00 Hrs 13th Dec2016

Last Price@115.05

There is a slight change we shall book profits in the zone 114.20-114.30 zone & shall watch the price action -if it goes below 114 & sustains down, then we shall look for 113.30 as next target else UJ could push up again that will indicate the bulls aren't giving up easily.

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 20:55 Hrs 13th Dec2016

Last Price@115.30

Broken trendline acting as resistance - UJ should not move above 115.50 that is strict stops if it has to touch the targets of 114.20--114.30 first


snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 08:11 Hrs 14th Dec2016

Last Price@115.15

Alternate Path or Plan-B

Path shown below could be an alternate where 5th wave itself gets subdivided- currently running into 2nd wave within 5th wave which likely should complete close to 114.20-114.30 as the possible target zone shown above.

Once U.S. Fed raises interest- & UJ starts moving above 115.50 -it could zoom up to 118.50-119 where it travels 161.8% of wave -1 which topped at 116.12-that will indicate that bulls won't be giving easily.

Also 113--113.10 is an important zone for UJ on the downside.
snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 14:29 Hrs 14th Dec2016

Last Price@115.08

Against 115.50- Strict Upside Resistance - we can expect downside move going into close by zone of 114.30-114.50- still open

As soon as UJ crosses 115.50- key level upside -it is open for higher targets initially for 116.80-117 & above 118.90
Perdagangan aktif: 16:08 Hrs 14th Dec2016

Last Price@115.13

The rally from 113.12 to 116.12 will be retraced 50% in the zone 114.60-114.65
& shall be retraced 61.8% in the zone 114.05-114.25 these are likely targets before UJ resumes upside move keeping 115.50 as key short term resistance & 113.10 as key support. As any move above 115.50 shall be a strong clue that UJ wants to rally upside & targets could be 116.90-117 first & staying above 117 -can head to 118.90.

Also the downside support is 113.10 against this level, we are expecting upside targets, so 113.10 should not be breached downside.

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 23:32 Hrs 14th Dec2016

Last Price@115.19

Key level is 115.50 - keep in mind if UJ goes above 115.50 -it should not move again below 115.50 & crosses 116.12 then for sure it is extending upside else going below 115- we can have target as set above 114.00-114.25 - Here also - 113.10 is the key level downside -if breached then it will indicate UJ has put the top & shall move down in coming sessions.

Downside -113.30 Key support

Upside- 115.50 key resistance

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 07:20 Hrs 15th Dec2016

Last Price@117.70

At 117.70 -It travels the same distance as wave -1 in current running wave-5

220 pips -an explosive rally in UJ as expected before FED

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 08:17 Hrs 16th Dec2016

Last Price@118.22

At 119.50 - 3rd wave travels 161.8%, which is likely the next target level

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 10:04 Hrs 21st Dec2016

Last Price@117.51
Scenario-1 -If goes below 117.39
Looks like a 3rd wave is getting subdivided- completes internal wave-iv in the range 116.30-116.40 where it travels 61.8% of current rise from 114.70.


Scenario-2 -Going Above 118.25 - shall resume the upside move towards 119.50 marks

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 21:17 Hrs 27th Dec2016

Last Price@117.58

Going above 117.90 it travels 118.60 & beyond 118.67 -it travels 119.55 where it travels 161.8% of pink wave-1

snapshot
Perdagangan aktif: 21:26 Hrs 27th Dec2016

Last Price@117.60

Alternate Scenario- Triangle in formation & bullish against 116.55 lows intact for thrust upside to 119.50-120 zone. This happens if 118.25 is intact & UJ fails to go beyond that mark -means it wants spend some more time in a sideways move before moving higher.

snapshot
Best Regards,
Abhishek H. Singh, CMT
India Regional Manager
http://in.tradingview.com
| LinkedIn
India Markets-BSE, NSE chat room- https://in.tradingview.com/chat/#b4sFOMIVqPkq8gfQ
Hi Abhishek Sir, Kindly share your update on USDJPY, Thanks :)
Balas
Buying the re-testing
snapshot

Balas
stoploss ?
Balas
@gulz, Stoploss for what?
Balas
gulz PRO AbhishekHSinghCMT
@AbhishekHSinghCMT, for long position for wave 3 - i mean sroploss for 3rd wave which is expected to make 119.5 ?
Balas
@gulz, One should not be bothered as already 200 pips above entry point- key level was 115.50 & I do not advise late entry in long calls.
Balas
What will happen next? Will it make three correction waves?
Balas
@habibzafari14, It has started upside in impulsive & an explosive manner as thought above 115.50- travels 117.70
Balas
So what kind of wave in itself was B in your ABC structure from 107.5 to 100.08? It does not look like either a corrective zig-zag or any kind of flat..
Balas
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