Oil looks bearish
Crude Oil has been very tricky lately and it looks like it is going to continue further down before making a new high. I know it's very near to do so but until we have I am very in favor of the bearish outlook of it.
The count begins with an ABC zigzag starting the 25th of April and ending the 17th of May 2022:
>Wave A being an impulse ending the 29th of April around the price of 108$.
>Wave B being an expanded flat ending the 11th of May around the price of 98$.
>Wave C being an impulse ending the 17th of May around the price of 115$.
Later, it was followed by an impulse down, the waves (i)(ii)(iii)(iv)(v), of what could itself be either the first wave of a new zigzag ((a)) or of an impulse ((i)).
If the count is right, we should now be ending either the ((b)) wave or the wave ((2)) which has been a zigzag with a triangle as its' wave (b).
Scenario I, impulse:
If this first five waves down was the beginning of an impulse, then we should aim the 161.8% fib extension target for wave ((iii)) which is around the price of 98.8$.
Scenario II, zigzag:
If the first impulse down was the beginning of a zigzag, then we should aim at the 100% fib extension target instead for wave ((c)) which is around the price of 105$.
As you can see, this entire count for future price action will become unvalid if the price makes a new high over 115$. But this is what makes it such a great reward risk ratio. ;)
My advice is of course to wait for a push down.
With ((i)) or ((a)) I mean rounded i or rounded a. In previous posts I tried to write it more clearly but the symbol disapeared in the text.
The count begins with an ABC zigzag starting the 25th of April and ending the 17th of May 2022:
>Wave A being an impulse ending the 29th of April around the price of 108$.
>Wave B being an expanded flat ending the 11th of May around the price of 98$.
>Wave C being an impulse ending the 17th of May around the price of 115$.
Later, it was followed by an impulse down, the waves (i)(ii)(iii)(iv)(v), of what could itself be either the first wave of a new zigzag ((a)) or of an impulse ((i)).
If the count is right, we should now be ending either the ((b)) wave or the wave ((2)) which has been a zigzag with a triangle as its' wave (b).
Scenario I, impulse:
If this first five waves down was the beginning of an impulse, then we should aim the 161.8% fib extension target for wave ((iii)) which is around the price of 98.8$.
Scenario II, zigzag:
If the first impulse down was the beginning of a zigzag, then we should aim at the 100% fib extension target instead for wave ((c)) which is around the price of 105$.
As you can see, this entire count for future price action will become unvalid if the price makes a new high over 115$. But this is what makes it such a great reward risk ratio. ;)
My advice is of course to wait for a push down.
With ((i)) or ((a)) I mean rounded i or rounded a. In previous posts I tried to write it more clearly but the symbol disapeared in the text.
Nota
The level of 115.53$ was hit. This invalidates the previous count making the new one an expanded flat instead. This doesn't change the future trend so much other than it can expand to almost 120$ before resuming down as a wave ((c)). Once the reverse happens, we will be able to measure the price target for ((c)).
Penafian
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