A Clear Signal of Economic Contraction
Unemployment vs. Central Bank Tightening
We know there's a shifting of the tides. With unprecedented Monetary Policy to rescue the economy due to never before seen economic maladies. Dotcom, Housing Market Collapse, and now the C-19 Pandemic. We saw the Fed's policies fail during the Great Depression, could we continue to trust this policy to course correct an inherently broken system?
The simplest view of this is as an indicator of economic contraction preceding major Recessions. Now, combine this with yield curve inversions of both the 10 and 2-year yields, now, with a drastic move in the 3-month vs 10-year yield and we should be wary.
We know there's a shifting of the tides. With unprecedented Monetary Policy to rescue the economy due to never before seen economic maladies. Dotcom, Housing Market Collapse, and now the C-19 Pandemic. We saw the Fed's policies fail during the Great Depression, could we continue to trust this policy to course correct an inherently broken system?
The simplest view of this is as an indicator of economic contraction preceding major Recessions. Now, combine this with yield curve inversions of both the 10 and 2-year yields, now, with a drastic move in the 3-month vs 10-year yield and we should be wary.