Risk aversion in gold prices heats up, supporting bullish contin

After the Trump administration recently imposed a large tariff increase, it exempted 90 countries. The policy intention is to divide other countries and put pressure on negotiations. This move may prompt more countries to negotiate with the United States separately, but the tariff game will continue and the market risk aversion sentiment has not disappeared. At the same time, the US economy is facing the pressure of "stagflation" - stubborn inflation and slowing growth. The Federal Reserve is caught in a policy dilemma. It dares not cut interest rates too early, but is worried about the economic downturn. In this environment, the safe-haven attribute of gold is still supported, but technical adjustments should be vigilant in the short term.
Gold technical analysis
1. Daily level: bulls are strong, but close to key resistance
Wednesday's big positive line completely engulfed the previous day's decline, confirming that the bottom structure formed by the 2855 low is valid.
The price accelerated upward after breaking through 3100, but it is currently approaching the strong resistance area of ​​3130-3150 (the high point concentration area repeatedly tested last week).
Key points: If it can stand above 3130 this week, the medium-term bullish trend will continue, and the next target is 3160-3200; on the contrary, if it rises and falls, it may enter a high-level shock.
2. 4-hour level: continuous rise, but be wary of corrections
The Bollinger Bands open upward, the moving average is in a bullish arrangement, but the RSI is close to the overbought area.
Short-term support: 3093 (previous low point), if it falls below, it indicates that the adjustment has started, and it may fall back to the 3070-3050 area.
Bullish defense position: 3100 integer mark, if it falls below, it will turn to shock in the short term.
3. 1-hour level: The top divergence signal begins to appear
The price hits a new high but the MACD is not synchronized, and the short-term moving average begins to turn, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening.
Key pattern: If it breaks through the 3132 neckline, it may rise to 3140-3160 in the short term; if it fails to break through, it may form a double top and fall back.
Night trading strategy
Scenario 1: Hold above 3100 and continue long
Entry: Light long position near 3108, stop loss 3095, target 3130-3135.
Breakthrough strategy: If it stands firm at 3130, it can go up to 3140-3160, but be wary of profit taking at high levels.
Scenario 2: Blocked in the 3130-3150 area, try high short
Entry: Try short in the 3127-3133 range, stop loss above 3140, target 3100-3080, break to see 3050.
Logic: Strong resistance area + technical divergence, game callback correction.
Scenario 3: Break below 3100 and turn to shock
Wait and see, wait for the 3050-3070 support area to stabilize before arranging medium and long-term long orders.
Risk Warning
Evening CPI data: If inflation exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Fed's hawkish stance and suppress gold; if the data is mild, it will be good for gold prices.
Tariff policy trends: If the conflict escalates, safe-haven buying may push gold prices to break through resistance; if it eases, bulls need to be wary of a pullback.
Summary
Gold has risen strongly in the short term due to risk aversion, but the technical side has entered a key pressure zone, and the risk of chasing more has increased. It is recommended to adopt the **"high-altitude in the resistance zone + low-long at the support level"** interval strategy, strictly stop loss, and focus on the breakthrough of 3100 support and 3130-3150 resistance. In the medium term, if the gold price can stand above 3130, the long-term bullish trend will continue.