corleone7
Panjang

Gold Daily Bullish Bat Pattern

FX:XAUUSD   Emas/Dolar U.S
Entry is at 88.6% XA
Stops under X
TP is 38.2 and 61.8

Note: Use your own plan to trade this patterns

Notice the smaller bearish purple pattern, it's a trade I posted long ago which turned out very good.

From Harmonic Trading, Vol.1 by Scott Carney:

"Although many have written articles on this pattern, the origins of the Gartley pattern range from erroneous to downright misinformation. H. M. Gartley first outlined the basic structure of this pattern in his book Profits in the Stock Market (Lambert-Gann Publishing, 1935) on page 222." Pay attention to the words: "Basic structure". Your pattern doesn't have the "basic structure"

From Profits in the Stock Markets by H.M.Gartley:

"Let's look at figre 27(A). When, after an intermediate decline in either a bull or bear market, such as A-B in the diagram, has proceeded for some time, and activity has shown a definite tendency to dry up, indication that liquidation is terminating, a minor rally like B-C sets in, with volume expanding on the upside. And when a minor decline, after cancelling a third to a half of the preceeding minor advance (B-C) comes to a halt, with volume drying up again, a real opportunity is presented to buy stocks, with a stop under the previous low.
In eight of ten cases wherein each of these specific conditions occurs, a rally, which will provide a worthwhile profit, ensues. In the other two case only small losses have to be taken. In trading this formation, the observer is depending upon the probability that either a head-and-shoulders, or double bottom, which are the two reversal patterns which occur most frequently, is developing"

Here the Figure 27(A) found on page 222: http://prntscr.com/hmw5hy

An example of double bottom: http://prntscr.com/hmw8ok
An example of head-and-shoulders: http://prntscr.com/hmw96j

From Harmonic Trader, 1998 by Scott Carney:

"The key to any trade execution is determining in advance the amount you are willing to risk. Defining the “uncle point,” or stop loss limit, is crucial in containing losses and preserving equity capital. A stop loss limit in harmonic trade set-ups is really the point at which you believe the Potential Reversal Zone is no longer valid. Harmonic trade set-ups are effective because they define a high probability area for TREND REVERSAL. Once that area is defined, the point at which the set up is no longer valid should be fairly clear. The stop loss limit in this pattern is measured relative to the initial point (X) of the defined pattern. In a bullish Gartley, the stop loss should be placed just below the initial point (X)." (capital letters are mine)

Conclusion:
1) H.M Gartley outlined the basic structure of a pattern to be a trend reversal patter (either a double bottom/top or a head-and-shoulders)
2) Scott Carney agrees with the basic structure.
3) Although Scott Carney assigned some specific fibonacci ratios to the pattern he uses them to "define a high probability area for trend reversal"

Is your pattern a trend reversal one?
Reply
Balas
corleone7 Alexander_Nikitin
@Alexander_Nikitin,

The yellow one isn't on the end of a trend for the classic reversal as Gartley said in his book, although maybe by my mistake, the result of the backtesting I did, is for taking all the patterns, without previous trend specification.

Of course if we take only bearish batterns after a bullish trend for example, the percentage of correction and room for downside is much greater, I am aware.

It may increase my losses, but also allows to catch more winners. I don't trade gartleys also, and my way to manage trades is quite different from what is "writen".

But my consistency and probability has been good, which I can account for, so I'll keep trading this way until I realize I need to change something. Thanks for the imput
Balas
or it's a gartly(0.618XA-B 0.786XA-D)
I am confused how to determined gartly or bat especially when B point is 61.8% XA
Balas
corleone7 yitiancai
@yitiancai, Choose to trade one of them, or trade both according to your trade plan
Balas
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