Emas Semerta / Dolar A.S.Telah dikemas kini GOLD Short Analysis
As we can see from chart during the New York Session on Friday we completed the pullback and were granted 2 entry positions for a continuation of the short position we held.
Entry Positions:
1. The first with a third tap off an important trendline.
2. The second entry off the "E" point of an Expanding Triangle.
It is a good idea to put your stops into breakeven/profit for both entries. If you do get stopped out and the trade is still a valid short then look to re-enter. Remember to always minimize your risk. Look after that and the rewards will come.
I believe the short will be continued and hence i will continue to hold my position as we reach the vicinity of the 4 hour Head & Shoulders neckline.
If price is to break this neckline and granted it's not a false breakout, we will see a bigger move down, hence the reason to hold this short and maximise profits.
****One thing that i am wary of though is that the 4 hour head and shoulders is pretty evident and the way that price action was shown during the New York Session (clearly continuing it's short) which might be a bear trap, fooling traders into an "evident" /possible Head & Shoulders Pattern and purchasing up the other end of the contracts.
Upon checking Market Sentiment on GOLD, it's showing 51% in long positions while 49% in short positions at this current point in time. Something to take note of. If the short positions were heavily skewed then this would have given this scenario more validity.
We shall see what price does. For now though, if you're on a short like me with good entry positions, look to ride this out and lock in profits as you go with a risk-free trade if possible as the rewards and potential is great as i see this as wave 3.
~~~~PLEASE LOOK BELOW FOR FURTHER UPDATE!! Elliot WAVE Analysis. ~~~~
We might be in for a bit of a rocky ride in the meantime while this short occurs. Please see.
Entry Positions:
1. The first with a third tap off an important trendline.
2. The second entry off the "E" point of an Expanding Triangle.
It is a good idea to put your stops into breakeven/profit for both entries. If you do get stopped out and the trade is still a valid short then look to re-enter. Remember to always minimize your risk. Look after that and the rewards will come.
I believe the short will be continued and hence i will continue to hold my position as we reach the vicinity of the 4 hour Head & Shoulders neckline.
If price is to break this neckline and granted it's not a false breakout, we will see a bigger move down, hence the reason to hold this short and maximise profits.
****One thing that i am wary of though is that the 4 hour head and shoulders is pretty evident and the way that price action was shown during the New York Session (clearly continuing it's short) which might be a bear trap, fooling traders into an "evident" /possible Head & Shoulders Pattern and purchasing up the other end of the contracts.
Upon checking Market Sentiment on GOLD, it's showing 51% in long positions while 49% in short positions at this current point in time. Something to take note of. If the short positions were heavily skewed then this would have given this scenario more validity.
We shall see what price does. For now though, if you're on a short like me with good entry positions, look to ride this out and lock in profits as you go with a risk-free trade if possible as the rewards and potential is great as i see this as wave 3.
~~~~PLEASE LOOK BELOW FOR FURTHER UPDATE!! Elliot WAVE Analysis. ~~~~
We might be in for a bit of a rocky ride in the meantime while this short occurs. Please see.
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Please see for Elliot Wave CountNota
This is how the above looks on the 4 hour just so you can see the bigger scheme of things here.
Next i will draw out the bigger Elliot Wave Cycle.
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I hope this is clear!! Please let me know if you want me to redraw this in a more clearer, simpler way.
Thanks greatly! I hope you enjoy and like my analysis. If so please follow me so i can share my analysis in the future with you all :) <3
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As you can see, i think price will come down and double bottom, shy off the neckline and then begin an ABC correction which in turn will make everyone get in on a long position believing that price will continue it's long (especially with fundamentals and gold being a safe haven in this current GLOBAL bearish news environment). This price move up will surely make it seem as though the Head & Shoulders pattern is "invalid" since price did not break the neckline. The masses will get in on these Sharp ABC moves up, in before a massive "Sell off", beginning the wave 2-3 INSIDE a wave (II)-(III).
The only other thing is, that the current wave 4-5 might end up being extended and if so, will pierce the neckline. Wait and see. Risk free trades -> Ride it out.
I hope my explanation made sense. If not, please comment and i will attempt to re-explain. Thanks! All the best guys and i wish you all a WONDERFUL week of positive trading ahead. ENJOY it :D Let's get it!
Dagangan aktif
4 hour view:If price supposedly continues on it's Elliot Wave path and breaks the Head&Shoulders Neckline then that thick red line going down is the MINIMUM distance that price will travel.
If that's the case then the projected wave II-III will surpass the 1.618 projected Fibonacci level and continue past with a likely next level of 2.618 to complete wave II - III. It could go further and end up to 4.618 if it wants. However this level of 2.618 coincides at the extremes of the blue Triangle on the weekly/daily chart.
the Elliot path that i drew is the most likely and standard Elliot path for it to take. It can have it's own take on things however and end at different points/lengths.
Price will most likely reject off the triangle again like it has many times in the past and begin it's correction which is a correction of a 1-2 before beginning it's grand cycle of wave 2-3 which will break down below the triangle once and for all.
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Entry 2
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Possible short position. Let's look in closer. Very possible for a short setup here.
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Also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci.Nota
Another entry point at E if you wish to enter with very tight stop.
Dagangan aktif
2 Safer Take Profit Zones. Price may pierce through the 4hr Head & Shoulders neckline with an extended wave. Higher probability of price bouncing up and rejecting off the Neck & Shoulders neckline, but you never know :)
Option 1: Take Profit 1.
Option 2: Take Profit 2.
Option 3: HOLD.
However 1294.10 is a relatively safe spot if you wish to increase the likelihood of the trade remaining active.
If you see my wave analysis, it has a HIGHER PROBABILITY and explanations (key word: probability) then it might reject off the neckline.
If you like my analysis, please like and follow me :) I would really appreciate it!
Please click the above links to read more on my explanations and Elliot Wave analysis.
This short position could be incorrect. I've given a probable setup in my eyes.
Happy Trading!! :D
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Trade still valid with 1294.10 STOP loss in effect. Re-adjusted ABCDE triangle. Dagangan aktif
Not too late to get in!Nota
Take Profit #1: Target MetNota
Highly possible that wave 4-5 as ended (equaled the same length as wave 0-1) Therefore if that's the case, price is rejecting off and breaking a trendline. I believe this could be the start of the ABC correction. However please be wary that there are core U.S data being released in 5 minutes and in 1 and a half hours. Let's see how price reacts from here.
Set tight stop losses and STRICT risk MANAGEMENT.
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Two Things i see happening here: 1. Price is still correcting in wave 4 via a triangle.
2. Price will break right through here and continue down as the Wave 2-3 didn't reach it's intended Fibonacci Projection.
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Better Triangle:Nota
Penafian
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Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.