Gold market fundamentals:
Powell made a speech on interest rate cut last Friday. The September interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate cut has increased.
The US dollar index and US Treasury yields continue to fall.
The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical crises are intensifying, and risk aversion continues to rise.
Gold market technical aspects:
From the 4H chart, gold prices still maintain an upward trend. Last week's correction did not effectively fall below the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618. According to the wave theory, from 2380 to 2530, this is the rise of AB waves, and now it is the extension of C waves. According to the amplitude of each wave, the high point of 2531 will definitely be refreshed.
Trading strategy: Now it depends on when 2531 breaks through. If it breaks through directly, we will chase the rise. If there is no break, wait for the retracement to the 2510-2515 range to buy.
Support range: 2515, 2510, 2500
Resistance range: 2531
Daily risk data:
US durable goods orders monthly rate in July
US Dallas Fed business activity index in August