Analysis on gold current uptrend
Telah dikemas kini
Since the beginning of 2019, gold has been in a huge uptrend, which has sent prices to new all-time highs. What the charts tell is that every 3 months we get a move to the upside, which ranges between 10-22%. Then we in the next 3 months get a small correction. We have just had the small correction, which could indicate that its time for a move higher.
The gold prices, IMO, moved higher in 2019, because of the toxic cocktail of monetary, and fiscal policy the fed ran. That created some fears of an overheating economy, which pressed investors into safer assets(Even though the stock market also went up). Also Trumps, sometimes, crazy and explosive decision making was creating certain fears among investors.
Then we at the beginning of the current year had, and still has, the corona crisis, which at first, sent gold lower because a lot of investors wanted risk aversion following the sell-off on the stock market, which sent the dollar higher. Since gold is denominated in dollars, it was made more costly for foreign investors to buy, which sent gold prices lower. Then all of world central banks, especially the FED, went on a crazy monetary easing spree, which of course sent a lot of money into the economy. People then went onto investing it into financial assets, which caused "asset inflation". This of course helped gold prices also.
Soon people saw the end of the current crisis(at least some hope), and the economy was soon to recover. Usually, the dollar falls when we are in an economic uptrend. Also, the fed lowered the interest rate, which means that the interest rate advantage the euro had against the dollar, was no longer exiting. Also, economic theories, suggest that if the US wants to turn around their high unemployment they need to get their real interest down to -2,5%(they are currently around -1,2%). This could send a lot higher.
Also, Goldman Sachs expect gold to reach 2300$, somewhere between 6-14 months. Also, Paul Tudor Jones, could see gold go to as high as 2600$(his investor letter from 2020 may), however, I don't see it reach that level anytime soon. Personally, I could see it reach between 2200$-2300$ within 9 months.
There are a lot of other things to keep track of also, including the upcoming US presidential election.
The gold prices, IMO, moved higher in 2019, because of the toxic cocktail of monetary, and fiscal policy the fed ran. That created some fears of an overheating economy, which pressed investors into safer assets(Even though the stock market also went up). Also Trumps, sometimes, crazy and explosive decision making was creating certain fears among investors.
Then we at the beginning of the current year had, and still has, the corona crisis, which at first, sent gold lower because a lot of investors wanted risk aversion following the sell-off on the stock market, which sent the dollar higher. Since gold is denominated in dollars, it was made more costly for foreign investors to buy, which sent gold prices lower. Then all of world central banks, especially the FED, went on a crazy monetary easing spree, which of course sent a lot of money into the economy. People then went onto investing it into financial assets, which caused "asset inflation". This of course helped gold prices also.
Soon people saw the end of the current crisis(at least some hope), and the economy was soon to recover. Usually, the dollar falls when we are in an economic uptrend. Also, the fed lowered the interest rate, which means that the interest rate advantage the euro had against the dollar, was no longer exiting. Also, economic theories, suggest that if the US wants to turn around their high unemployment they need to get their real interest down to -2,5%(they are currently around -1,2%). This could send a lot higher.
Also, Goldman Sachs expect gold to reach 2300$, somewhere between 6-14 months. Also, Paul Tudor Jones, could see gold go to as high as 2600$(his investor letter from 2020 may), however, I don't see it reach that level anytime soon. Personally, I could see it reach between 2200$-2300$ within 9 months.
There are a lot of other things to keep track of also, including the upcoming US presidential election.
Komen
I have just reduced my exposure, but I am still keeping a relatively big position in gold, as liquidity is coming to all markets. My target is around 2000$
Penerbitan berkaitan
Penafian
Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.