From Congestion to Collapse: Understanding Distribution and H&S

A Simple Lesson: How to Identify Congestion Zones in the Market — Schabacker’s Approach and the Head and Shoulders Pattern

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👤 Who Was Schabacker?
🔹 Richard Schabacker was one of the pioneers who authored seminal works on technical analysis.
🔹 He lived over 90 years ago and served as Editor-in-Chief of Financial World magazine.
🔹 His most notable book is:
Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits
🔹 Published around 1932 in the United States.
🔹 Schabacker is often considered the “grandfather” of technical analysis, and much of the methodology traders use today can be traced back to his insights.

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🟢 What Did He Teach?
🔹 Schabacker introduced a critical concept:
✅ The Congestion Zone

🌟 What Does It Mean?
When the market makes a strong move—either a sharp rally or a steep decline—price often becomes trapped in a range:
• Buyers at higher levels wait for further gains.
• Sellers at lower levels expect more downside.

But in reality, retail traders aren’t moving the market. Large institutions and funds—the so-called smart money—are in control.

👈 When these big players want to exit positions, they avoid selling everything at once to prevent a sudden collapse in price and to avoid revealing their hand.

✅ Their Playbook:
• Keep price contained within a narrow band between support and resistance.
• Gradually increase volume over time.
• Attract new buyers who believe the trend is still intact.
• Quietly distribute their holdings without alarming the market.

🌟 Why Do They Do This?
If they were to dump all at once:
• Price would drop rapidly.
• Everyone would realize a large seller was active.
• Institutions would get stuck, unable to exit at favorable prices.

🔻 So They Create Congestion and Distribution:
1️⃣ Sell discreetly over time.
2️⃣ Maintain the illusion that the trend is healthy.
3️⃣ Trap latecomers who buy into the range.

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🟢 How Do You Recognize This on a Chart?

🎯 A Simple Example:
• Price climbs steadily from 3,000 to 3,300.
• Suddenly, it surges to 3,450.

✅ Most traders think the rally will continue.

🌟 What happens next:
• Price stalls between 3,380 and 3,450.
• Numerous candles form in this area.
• Volume remains elevated.

🔥 Inside this range:
1️⃣ Institutions sell into every upward move.
2️⃣ Early buyers remain committed, hoping for new highs.
3️⃣ New participants enter, unaware of the distribution.

🔻 What Do You See?
• Repeated candles oscillating within the same band.
• Failed breakouts above resistance.
• Sustained high volume.

✅ This is the classic Congestion Zone.

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💡 How Can You Tell If It’s Distribution, Not Accumulation?
• Persistent high volume indicates steady selling.
• Price struggles to make fresh highs.
• Long upper wicks signal selling pressure.
• A Head and Shoulders pattern may start forming.

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🎯 What Happens After Congestion?
• Institutions complete their distribution.
✅ Price breaks sharply below the range.
✅ The market drops quickly.
✅ Late buyers are forced to sell at losses.

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🟢 Practical Illustration:
Visualize the range like this:

| |
| The Range |
| |
3380 ————> Resistance
| Multiple Candles |
| Multiple Candles |
| Multiple Candles |
3300 ————> Support and Neckline

✅ If price breaks below 3,300 on heavy volume:
• The distribution is complete.
• Price declines rapidly.

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📌 Key Takeaway:
After any strong move, expect congestion as large players exit. Once they’re done, the trend often reverses.

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🎯 Quick Tips:
✅ Never rush to buy inside congestion after a big rally.
✅ Watch volume—if it’s high, it’s likely distribution.
✅ Wait for a clear breakdown before shorting.
✅ Your target should at least match the size of the preceding move.

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🔥 Let’s Cover the Head and Shoulders Pattern:

✅ What Is It?
A reversal pattern appearing after a strong uptrend, signaling the end of bullish momentum.

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✅ Pattern Components:
1️⃣ Left Shoulder:
• Price makes a high.
• Pulls back.

2️⃣ Head:
• Rallies to a higher high.
• Declines again.

3️⃣ Right Shoulder:
• Attempts to rise but fails to exceed the head’s high.

4️⃣ Neckline:
• Connects the lows between the shoulders and the head.

🔻 When the Neckline Breaks Down:
It’s a strong sell signal. The market often drops decisively.

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💡 Example in Numbers:
• Price moves from 3,200:
1️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Left Shoulder)
2️⃣ Down to 3,300
3️⃣ Up to 3,400 (Head)
4️⃣ Down to 3,300
5️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Right Shoulder)
6️⃣ Down to 3,300

✅ If price closes below 3,300 on strong volume, the pattern is confirmed.

🎯 Target Calculation:
• Head = 3,400
• Neckline = 3,300
• Distance = 100 points
• Target = 3,200

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🟢 How To Trade It:
1️⃣ Don’t preemptively sell during the right shoulder.
2️⃣ Wait for a confirmed breakdown.
3️⃣ Enter a short position targeting 3,200.
4️⃣ Set your stop loss above the right shoulder.

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🟢 Final Advice:
✅ The Head and Shoulders is powerful if confirmed by volume.
✅ Always wait for the neckline break—otherwise, it could be a false signal.
✅ Keep monitoring volume for confirmation.

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🔥 Be disciplined in your analysis and decisive in your execution.
🔥 As Warren Buffett said:
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

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If you found this valuable, let me know—I’d be glad to prepare more lessons. 🌟