Here's a more detailed aproach

when the price touches the yellow elipse at around 1920 it might see strong resistance and shoot back up to 1939 where you can enter with very low risk, but price shouldnt go out of the red elipse which will eventually push it back to 1912.
I strongly suggest to not play the long position, but the wait for a short.

Komen:

Keep in mind, that the more time advances, the more the ellipses will shorten the price range.