Resistance becomes Support? Or wait for retrace?

22 Feb 2019

We have been in the process of forming this symmetrical triangle for almost 3 months now. Many call it a Bear Pennant but according to traditional pennant rules, it can't be longer than ~ 3 weeks. Though this is crypto, but it should be faster moving if you want to use that argument.

In either case, I have been tracking this downtrend line since Christmas when we got rejected the first time and it held up again, but this time we broke through it and it seems as though we have gone and tested it for support and it held. I closed my long you can see on the chart (little blue arrows) in a good profit at 3815 (It was a leveraged trade. I am taking all my profit in BTC from 2019 onwards). Normally one would wait for a retracement to the 0.382 or 0.5 Fib lines before entering but I am curious to see how this support holds up. We had a relatively long consolidation the month before, so it is possible for the momentum to continue here. But I am still waiting before entering any leveraged positions.

Longs vs. Shorts data has been interesting too. There is a decline in both overall, but the difference between Longs and Shorts have been shrinking in favour of the Short-side.

https://ibb.co/NnSyYvw

What that tells me is there are more people closing their longs than shorts. It also suggests that a decent portion of those not closed yet are underwater and could get stopped out or liquidated in another push up. All will be interesting to watch :D