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Analyzing bigger "crashes" on BTC daily 2017

BITMEX:XBTUSD   Bitcoin / US Dollar Perpetual Inverse Swap Contract
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Next 40% crash might be inbound soon. Made this 3 days ago. Seems to fit rather well as it looks like a full bear time period was entered. I would wait to buy in again at 12-14k.
My argument here is: history repeats itself. The very same structure of a bullish parabolic up followed by a less bullish and only a bit higher alltime high is the same as observed in May 2017.
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