$XTZ - Expecting a 30% drop

After bottoming out of the channel as posted here a month ago (linked), we bounced to the median line of the long-term channel, which is also 0.618Fib retracement of the entire move down. I'm expecting a rejection

2 possibilities
1)This is a leading diagonal which is either (A) wave or Wave (1), we follow the green line path of a drop and a bounce to retest the median line again

2) we just finished the B wave relief rally and will make lower low (red arrow)

Weekly Chart