If you followed my last trades via Twitter, I had some long Corn position from 329 average, which I closed when I saw Heikin Ashi exhaustion and reversal signal ard 340 +/- range top. It was a good decision, as price again dipped back to Kijun. Let's see the details as of today.
Weekly:
- Small change in Ichimoku setup. Still bearish, but as Tenkan dropped down to price after 9 weeks, by now Price is above Tenkan. Price is still far below Kijun Sen and forward Senkou B. (26 weeks as 52 weeks averages, which are at same level now: 376+)
- The whole picture looks like a 2 years wide range with 319 low, 425 high and 376 mid equilibrium. Unless bears get back into action and force a lower low on weekly close, longer term averages will not move any lower, they will stay around 376.
- MACD is very interesting. In case it crosses up, bears will not have enough power to push corn market lower, and then pull back to 360-376 could take place.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bearish bias this week, but haDelta and haOscillator are still stuck at zero.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, as price seem to hold above Kijun Sen again. Please note how low volatility is causing a Kumo compression: Forward Senkou A and B lines got very tight. A thinner Kumo ahead would be easier to break through.
- Heikin-Ashi ma signal a bullish reversal today. haDelta crossed up, haOscillator may follow if today we have an inside candle.
- EWO is neutral
- ATR has been very low. This also reflects lack of volatility. Commodites may trade sideaway with low volatility for some time, but once they decide to trade in direction, the moves are always sharp. This is why I like low volatility environments. My money management system always calculates with ATR when building a position. Lower ATR means more tradable contracts for one trade unit size, with still same nominal cash risk.
Weekly:
- Small change in Ichimoku setup. Still bearish, but as Tenkan dropped down to price after 9 weeks, by now Price is above Tenkan. Price is still far below Kijun Sen and forward Senkou B. (26 weeks as 52 weeks averages, which are at same level now: 376+)
- The whole picture looks like a 2 years wide range with 319 low, 425 high and 376 mid equilibrium. Unless bears get back into action and force a lower low on weekly close, longer term averages will not move any lower, they will stay around 376.
- MACD is very interesting. In case it crosses up, bears will not have enough power to push corn market lower, and then pull back to 360-376 could take place.
- Heikin-Ashi has some bearish bias this week, but haDelta and haOscillator are still stuck at zero.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral, as price seem to hold above Kijun Sen again. Please note how low volatility is causing a Kumo compression: Forward Senkou A and B lines got very tight. A thinner Kumo ahead would be easier to break through.
- Heikin-Ashi ma signal a bullish reversal today. haDelta crossed up, haOscillator may follow if today we have an inside candle.
- EWO is neutral
- ATR has been very low. This also reflects lack of volatility. Commodites may trade sideaway with low volatility for some time, but once they decide to trade in direction, the moves are always sharp. This is why I like low volatility environments. My money management system always calculates with ATR when building a position. Lower ATR means more tradable contracts for one trade unit size, with still same nominal cash risk.
