BB Levels

30 Mac

BB Levels — Volatility-Based Weekly Trading Ranges

Overview:
BB Levels is a multi-timeframe indicator that projects weekly trading ranges using historical price behavior and volatility modeling. It combines data from both the 4H and Daily timeframes to provide a dual-perspective view of expected price extremes.

Solid Lines → Based on the Daily timeframe (smoother, broader volatility)

Dashed Lines → Based on the 4H timeframe (finer, more reactive to short-term volatility)

How It Works:
The indicator employs a Markov Switching Model to estimate the prevailing market regime and generate a forecasted directional bias. It then applies average historical volatility to project a weekly range:

The centerline is a forecasted “zero level” based on the prior week’s close, adjusted by regime and trend forecast.

The upper and lower bounds are derived from average weekly volatility, scaled to reflect expected movement.

Two versions are shown:

Daily (solid): Represents the more conservative, long-term expectations.

4H (dashed): Captures short-term momentum and faster volatility shifts.

Important Note:
These levels represent statistical expectations, not fixed boundaries. Price may:

Consolidate within the dashed (4H) range during quiet periods

Break beyond the solid (Daily) range during news events or trending expansions

Designed For:

Swing traders seeking structured, volatility-adjusted weekly levels

Day traders targeting high-probability reversal zones

Strategists combining trend forecasting with expected price behavior

31 Mac

Nota Keluaran

Fixed an issue where price levels were missing. They can be toggled on and off in the settings.

4 hari lalu

Nota Keluaran

BB Levels — Volatility-Based Weekly Trading Ranges
Overview
BB Levels is a precision-driven, multi-timeframe indicator designed to forecast weekly trading ranges based on market regime behavior and historical volatility. Whether you're a swing trader seeking structure or an intraday trader looking for high-probability reversals, BB Levels adapts to both.

It combines two timeframes for layered insight:

Solid Lines (Daily) → Show smoother, broader expected volatility ranges

Dashed Lines (4H) → React to local low volatility and trend shifts

How It Works
At the heart of BB Levels is a Markov Switching Model (MSM) — a probabilistic framework that classifies the market into one of three behavioral regimes: bullish, bearish, or choppy. The model constantly evaluates the likelihood of transitioning between these states and weights their expected outcomes accordingly.

Rather than simply reacting to price movement, the MSM estimates the next most probable regime and projects a directional return. This probabilistic forecast gives BB Levels a forward-looking edge most indicators lack.

Where it becomes truly powerful is in its integration with historical volatility:

The model uses average weekly volatility to project how far price is likely to travel in either direction, based on its current regime.

The weekly open acts as the anchor point — providing a consistent baseline from which volatility-driven MsM expansions are calculated.

This fusion of regime forecasting and volatility normalization results in highly adaptive price levels that respond to market tone, momentum, and range expectation — not just price extremes.

Why It's Unique
Forward Bias: BB Levels forecasts price movement probabilities, not just historical outcomes.

Market-Aware: Regime classification lets it behave differently in bull trends, bear markets, or sideways environments.

Volatility-Normalized: Uses historical volatility to create ranges that adapt to instrument and timeframe.

Timeframe Blending: Provides macro (Daily) and micro (4H) context at the same time.

Anchored Accuracy: Weekly opens give the model a stable reference point that resets cleanly week to week.

Trading Applications
Swing Traders: Use solid (Daily) levels for structure — fading extremes or playing breakouts with volatility context.

Important Notes
These levels are not hard limits, but high statistical expectations calculated using MsM and historical volatility:

Price may coil inside the dashed range during consolidation.

Strong news or momentum may push price beyond the solid range.

Flipping a level into support/resistance often signals trend continuation or mean reversion.

Designed for precision, built with statistical logic, and capable of adapting to nearly any asset class — BB Levels is your market map for the week ahead.

4 hari lalu

Nota Keluaran

Update: MSM Regime Table Added
A dynamic on-chart table has been added to the top-right corner of the chart, displaying the current estimated market regime (Bullish, Bearish, or Choppy) based on the Markov Switching Model (MSM).

This table includes:

Dominant regime label (color-coded: green = bullish, red = bearish, gray = chop)

Regime probabilities for all three states:
Bull | Chop | Bear → 0.68 | 0.20 | 0.12

Why This Is Useful:
Provides immediate, visual insight into what the MSM believes is the most likely regime.

Helps contextualize the weekly levels plotted by the indicator (e.g., trending vs. mean-reverting behavior).

Allows users to align directional bias and trade planning with probabilistic regime expectations.

Updates live, recalculating regime logic from the selected timeframe data.

4 hari lalu

Nota Keluaran

Added a user-selectable option to control which timeframe is used for the MSM regime table — either Daily or 4H. This allows traders to view the Markov model’s interpretation of trend structure from a macro (Daily) or micro (4H) perspective, depending on their trading style.