True SeasonalityCONCEPTS
True Seasonality Indicator designed to forecast price based on historical data, best use on daily chart.
DETAILS & EXAMPLE OF HOW TO USE
On Gold chart, the blue graph indicate the few projected days in the future. On 8 April 2025, the indicator showing potential uptrend movement until mid of April, and after that sideways for sometimes.
FEATURES
Adjustable forecast bars & lookback
LIMITATIONS
The Indicator is best applied on daily chart.
Not intended as a stand-alone signal, but should be as part of long-term strategy analysis.
Should be combined with other lower-timeframe technical tools like supply and demand to find entry and confirmation.
Forecast
Fair Value Trend Model [SiDec]ABSTRACT
This pine script introduces the Fair Value Trend Model, an on-chart indicator for TradingView that constructs a continuously updating "fair-value" estimate of an asset's price via a logarithmic regression on historical data. Specifically, this model has been applied to Bitcoin (BTC) to fully grasp its fair value in the cryptocurrency market. Symmetric channel bands, defined by fixed percentage offsets around this central fair-value curve, provide a visual band within which normal price fluctuations may occur. Additionally, a short-term projection extends both the fair-value trend and its channel bands forward by a user-specified number of bars.
INTRODUCTION
Technical analysts frequently seek to identify an underlying equilibrium or "fair value" about which prices oscillate. Traditional approaches-moving averages, linear regressions in price-time space, or midlines-capture linear trends but often misrepresent the exponential or power-law growth patterns observable in many financial markets. The Fair Value Trend Model addresses this by performing an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression in log-space, fitting ln(Price) against ln(Days since inception). In practice, the primary application has been to Bitcoin, aiming to fully capture Bitcoin's underlying value dynamics.
The result is a curved trend line in regular (price-time) coordinates, reflecting Bitcoin's long-term compounding characteristics. Surrounding this fair-value curve, symmetric bands at user-specified percentage deviations serve as dynamic support and resistance levels. A simple linear projection extends both the central fair-value and its bands into the immediate future, providing traders with a heuristic for short-term trend continuation.
This exposition details:
Data transformation: converting bar timestamps into days since first bar, then applying natural logarithms to both time and price.
Regression mechanics: incremental (or rolling-window) accumulation of sums to compute the log-space fit parameters.
Fair-value reconstruction: exponentiation of the regression output to yield a price-space estimate.
Channel-band definition: establishing ±X% offsets around the fair-value curve and rendering them visually.
Forecasting methodology: projecting both the fair-value trend and channel bands by extrapolating the most recent incremental change in price-space.
Interpretation: how traders can leverage this model for trend identification, mean-reversion setups, and breakout analysis, particularly in Bitcoin trading.
Analysing the macro cycle on Bitcoin's monthly timeframe illustrates how the fair-value curve aligns with multi-year structural turning points.
DATA TRANSFORMATION AND NOTATION
1. Timestamp Baseline (t0)
Let t0 = timestamp of the very first bar on the chart (in milliseconds). Each subsequent bar has a timestamp ti, where ti ≥ t0.
2. Days Since Inception (d(t))
Define the “days since first bar” as
d(t) = max(1, (t − t0) / 86400000.0)
Here, 86400000.0 represents the number of milliseconds in one day (1,000 ms × 60 seconds × 60 minutes × 24 hours). The lower bound of 1 ensures that we never compute ln(0).
3. Logarithmic Coordinates:
Given the bar’s closing price P(t), define:
xi = ln( d(ti) )
yi = ln( P(ti) )
Thus, each data point is transformed to (xi, yi) in log‐space.
REGRESSION FORMULATION
We assume a log‐linear relationship:
yi = a + b·xi + εi
where εi is the residual error at bar i. Ordinary least squares (OLS) fitting minimizes the sum of squared residuals over N data points. Define the following accumulated sums:
Sx = Σ for i = 1 to N
Sy = Σ for i = 1 to N
Sxy = Σ for i = 1 to N
Sx2 = Σ for i = 1 to N
N = number of data points
The OLS estimates for b (slope) and a (intercept) are:
b = ( N·Sxy − Sx·Sy ) / ( N·Sx2 − (Sx)^2 )
a = ( Sy − b·Sx ) / N
All‐Time Versus Rolling‐Window Mode:
All-Time Mode:
Each new bar increments N by 1.
Update Sx ← Sx + xN, Sy ← Sy + yN, Sxy ← Sxy + xN·yN, Sx2 ← Sx2 + xN^2.
Recompute a and b using the formulas above on the entire dataset.
Rolling-Window Mode:
Fix a window length W. Maintain two arrays holding the most recent W values of {xi} and {yi}.
On each new bar N:
Append (xN, yN) to the arrays; add xN, yN, xN·yN, xN^2 to the sums Sx, Sy, Sxy, Sx2.
If the arrays’ length exceeds W, remove the oldest point (xN−W, yN−W) and subtract its contributions from the sums.
Update N_roll = min(N, W).
Compute b and a using N_roll, Sx, Sy, Sxy, Sx2 as above.
This incremental approach requires only O(1) operations per bar instead of recomputing sums from scratch, making it computationally efficient for long time series.
FAIR‐VALUE RECONSTRUCTION
Once coefficients (a, b) are obtained, the regressed log‐price at time t is:
ŷ(t) = a + b·ln( d(t) )
Mapping back to price space yields the “fair‐value”:
F(t) = exp( ŷ(t) )
= exp( a + b·ln( d(t) ) )
= exp(a) · ^b
In other words, F(t) is a power‐law function of “days since inception,” with exponent b and scale factor C = exp(a). Special cases:
If b = 1, F(t) = C · d(t), which is an exponential function in original time.
If b > 1, the fair‐value grows super‐linearly (accelerating compounding).
If 0 < b < 1, it grows sub‐linearly.
If b < 0, the fair‐value declines over time.
CHANNEL‐BAND DEFINITION
To visualise a “normal” range around the fair‐value curve F(t), we define two channel bands at fixed percentage offsets:
1. Upper Channel Band
U(t) = F(t) · (1 + α_upper)
where α_upper = (Channel Band Upper %) / 100.
2. Lower Channel Band
L(t) = F(t) · (1 − α_lower)
where α_lower = (Channel Band Lower %) / 100.
For example, default values of 50% imply α_upper = α_lower = 0.50, so:
U(t) = 1.50 · F(t)
L(t) = 0.50 · F(t)
When “Show FV Channel Bands” is enabled, both U(t) and L(t) are plotted in a neutral grey, and a semi‐transparent fill is drawn between them to emphasise the channel region.
SHORT‐TERM FORECAST PROJECTION
To extend both the fair‐value and its channel bands M bars into the future, the model uses a simple constant‐increment extrapolation in price space. The procedure is:
1. Compute Recent Increments
Let
F_prev = F( t_{N−1} )
F_curr = F( t_N )
Then define the per‐bar change in fair‐value:
ΔF = F_curr − F_prev
Similarly, for channel bands:
U_prev = U( t_{N−1} ), U_curr = U( t_N ), ΔU = U_curr − U_prev
L_prev = L( t_{N−1} ), L_curr = L( t_N ), ΔL = L_curr − L_prev
2. Forecasted Values After M Bars
Assuming the same per‐bar increments continue:
F_future = F_curr + M · ΔF
U_future = U_curr + M · ΔU
L_future = L_curr + M · ΔL
These forecasted values produce dashed lines on the chart:
A dashed segment from (bar_N, F_curr) to (bar_{N+M}, F_future).
Dashed segments from (bar_N, U_curr) to (bar_{N+M}, U_future), and from (bar_N, L_curr) to (bar_{N+M}, L_future).
Forecasted channel bands are rendered in a subdued grey to distinguish them from the current solid bands. Because this method does not re‐estimate regression coefficients for future t > t_N, it serves as a quick visual heuristic of trend continuation rather than a precise statistical forecast.
MATHEMATICAL SUMMARY
Summarising all key formulas:
1. Days Since Inception
d(t_i) = max( 1, ( t_i − t0 ) / 86400000.0 )
x_i = ln( d(t_i) )
y_i = ln( P(t_i) )
2. Regression Summations (for i = 1..N)
Sx = Σ
Sy = Σ
Sxy = Σ
Sx2 = Σ
N = number of data points (or N_roll if using rolling‐window)
3. OLS Estimator
b = ( N · Sxy − Sx · Sy ) / ( N · Sx2 − (Sx)^2 )
a = ( Sy − b · Sx ) / N
4. Fair‐Value Computation
ŷ(t) = a + b · ln( d(t) )
F(t) = exp( ŷ(t) ) = exp(a) · ^b
5. Channel Bands
U(t) = F(t) · (1 + α_upper)
L(t) = F(t) · (1 − α_lower)
with α_upper = (Channel Band Upper %) / 100, α_lower = (Channel Band Lower %) / 100.
6. Forecast Projection
ΔF = F_curr − F_prev
F_future = F_curr + M · ΔF
ΔU = U_curr − U_prev
U_future = U_curr + M · ΔU
ΔL = L_curr − L_prev
L_future = L_curr + M · ΔL
IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS
1. Time Precision
Timestamps are recorded in milliseconds. Dividing by 86400000.0 yields days with fractional precision.
For the very first bar, d(t) = 1 ensures x = ln(1) = 0, avoiding an undefined logarithm.
2. Incremental Versus Sliding Summation
All‐Time Mode: Uses persistent scalar variables (Sx, Sy, Sxy, Sx2, N). On each new bar, add the latest x and y contributions to the sums.
Rolling‐Window Mode: Employs fixed‐length arrays for {x_i} and {y_i}. On each bar, append (x_N, y_N) and update sums; if array length exceeds W, remove the oldest element and subtract its contribution from the sums. This maintains exact sums over the most recent W data points without recomputing from scratch.
3. Numerical Robustness
If the denominator N·Sx2 − (Sx)^2 equals zero (e.g., all x_i identical, as when only one day has passed), then set b = 0 and a = Sy / N. This produces a constant fair‐value F(t) = exp(a).
Enforcing d(t) ≥ 1 avoids attempts to compute ln(0).
4. Plotting Strategy
The fair‐value line F(t) is plotted on each new bar. Its color depends on whether the current price P(t) is above or below F(t): a “bullish” color (e.g., green) when P(t) ≥ F(t), and a “bearish” color (e.g., red) when P(t) < F(t).
The channel bands U(t) and L(t) are plotted in a neutral grey when enabled; otherwise they are set to “not available” (no plot).
A semi‐transparent fill is drawn between U(t) and L(t). Because the fill function is executed at global scope, it is automatically suppressed if either U(t) or L(t) is not plotted (na).
5. Forecast Line Management
Each projection line (for F, U, and L) is created via a persistent line object. On successive bars, the code updates the endpoints of the same line rather than creating a new one each time, preserving chart clarity.
If forecasting is disabled, any existing projection lines are deleted to avoid cluttering the chart.
INTERPRETATION AND APPLICATIONS
1. Trend Identification
The fair‐value curve F(t) represents the best‐fit long‐term trend under the assumption that ln(Price) scales linearly with ln(Days since inception). By capturing power‐law or exponential patterns, it can more accurately reflect underlying compounding behavior than simple linear regressions.
When actual price P(t) lies above U(t), it may be considered “overextended” relative to its long‐term trend; when price falls below L(t), it may be deemed “oversold.” These conditions can signal potential mean‐reversion or breakout opportunities.
2. Mean‐Reversion and Breakout Signals
If price re‐enters the channel after touching or slightly breaching L(t), some traders interpret this as a mean‐reversion bounce and consider initiating a long position.
Conversely, a sustained move above U(t) can indicate strong upward momentum and a possible bullish breakout. Traders often seek confirmation (e.g., price remaining above U(t) for multiple bars, rising volume, or corroborating momentum indicators) before acting.
3. Rolling Versus All‐Time Usage
All‐Time Mode: Captures the entire dataset since inception, focusing on structural, long‐term trends. It is less sensitive to short‐term noise or volatility spikes.
Rolling‐Window Mode: Restricts the regression to the most recent W bars, making the fair‐value curve more responsive to changing market regimes, sudden volatility expansions, or fundamental shifts. Traders who wish to align the model with local behaviour often choose W so that it approximates a market cycle length (e.g., 100–200 bars on a daily chart).
4. Channel Percentage Selection
A wider band (e.g., ±50 %) accommodates larger price swings, reducing the frequency of breaches but potentially delaying actionable signals.
A narrower band (e.g., ±10 %) yields more frequent “overbought/oversold” alerts but may produce more false signals during normal volatility. It is advisable to calibrate the channel width to the asset’s historical volatility regime.
5. Forecast Cautions
The short‐term projection assumes that the last single‐bar increment ΔF remains constant for M bars. In reality, trend acceleration or deceleration can occur, rendering the linear forecast inaccurate.
As such, the forecast serves as a visual guide rather than a statistically rigorous prediction. It is best used in conjunction with other momentum, volume, or volatility indicators to confirm trend continuation or reversal.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
1. Power‐Law Assumption
By fitting ln(P) against ln(d), the model posits that P(t) ≈ C · ^b. Real markets may deviate from a pure power‐law, especially around significant news events or structural regime changes. Temporary misalignment can occur.
2. Fixed Channel Width
Markets exhibit heteroskedasticity: volatility can expand or contract unpredictably. A static ±X % band does not adapt to changing volatility. During high‐volatility periods, a fixed ±50 % may prove too narrow and be breached frequently; in unusually calm periods, it may be excessively broad, masking meaningful variations.
3. Endpoint Sensitivity
Regression‐based indicators often display greater curvature near the most recent data, especially under rolling‐window mode. This can create sudden “jumps” in F(t) when new bars arrive, potentially confusing users who expect smoother behaviour.
4. Forecast Simplification
The projection does not re‐estimate regression slope b for future times. It only extends the most recent single‐bar change. Consequently, it should be regarded as an indicative extension rather than a precise forecast.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION ON TRADINGVIEW
1 Adding the Indicator
In TradingView’s “Indicators” dialog, search for Fair Value Trend Model or visit my profile, under "scripts" add it to your chart.
Add it to any chart (e.g., BTCUSD, AAPL, EURUSD) to see real‐time computation.
2. Configuring Inputs
Show Forecast Line: Toggle on or off the dashed projection of the fair‐value.
Forecast Bars: Choose M, the number of bars to extend into the future (default is often 30).
Forecast Line Colour: Select a high‐contrast colour (e.g., yellow).
Bullish FV Colour / Bearish FV Colour: Define the colour of the fair‐value line when price is above (e.g., green) or below it (e.g., red).
Show FV Channel Bands: Enable to display the grey channel bands around the fair‐value.
Channel Band Upper % / Channel Band Lower %: Set α_upper and α_lower as desired (defaults of 50 % create a ±50 % envelope).
Use Rolling Window?: Choose whether to restrict the regression to recent data.
Window Bars: If rolling mode is enabled, designate W, the number of bars to include.
3. Visual Output
The central curve F(t) appears on the price chart, coloured green when P(t) ≥ F(t) and red when P(t) < F(t).
If channel bands are enabled, the chart shows two grey lines U(t) and L(t) and a subtle shading between them.
If forecasting is active, dashed extensions of F(t), U(t), and L(t) appear, projecting forward by M bars in neutral hues.
CONCLUSION
The Fair Value Trend Model furnishes traders with a mathematically principled estimate of an asset’s equilibrium price curve by fitting a log‐linear regression to historical data. Its channel bands delineate a normal corridor of fluctuation based on fixed percentage offsets, while an optional short‐term projection offers a visual approximation of trend continuation.
By operating in log‐space, the model effectively captures exponential or power‐law growth patterns that linear methods overlook. Rolling‐window capability enables responsiveness to regime shifts, whereas all‐time mode highlights broader structural trends. Nonetheless, users should remain mindful of the model’s assumptions—particularly the power‐law form and fixed band percentages—and employ the forecast projection as a supplemental guide rather than a standalone predictor.
When combined with complementary indicators (e.g., volatility measures, momentum oscillators, volume analysis) and robust risk management, the Fair Value Trend Model can enhance market timing, mean‐reversion identification, and breakout detection across diverse trading environments.
REFERENCES
Draper, N. R., & Smith, H. (1998). Applied Regression Analysis (3rd ed.). Wiley.
Tsay, R. S. (2014). Introductory Time Series with R (2nd ed.). Springer.
Hull, J. C. (2017). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (10th ed.). Pearson.
These references provide background on regression, time-series analysis, and financial modeling.
Anchored Probability Cone by TenozenFirst of all, credit to @nasu_is_gaji for the open source code of Log-Normal Price Forecast! He teaches me alot on how to use polylines and inverse normal distribution from his indicator, so check it out!
What is this indicator all about?
This indicator draws a probability cone that visualizes possible future price ranges with varying levels of statistical confidence using Inverse Normal Distribution , anchored to the start of a selected timeframe (4h, W, M, etc.)
Feutures:
Anchored Cone: Forecasts begin at the first bar of each chosen higher timeframe, offering a consistent point for analysis.
Drift & Volatility-Based Forecast: Uses log returns to estimate market volatility (smoothed using VWMA) and incorporates a trend angle that users can set manually.
Probabilistic Price Bands: Displays price ranges with 5 customizable confidence levels (e.g., 30%, 68%, 87%, 99%, 99,9%).
Dynamic Updating: Recalculates and redraws the cone at the start of each new anchor period.
How to use:
Choose the Anchored Timeframe (PineScript only be able to forecast 500 bars in the future, so if it doesn't plot, try adjusting to a lower anchored period).
You can set the Model Length, 100 sample is the default. The higher the sample size, the higher the bias towards the overall volatility. So better set the sample size in a balanced manner.
If the market is inside the 30% conifidence zone (gray color), most likely the market is sideways. If it's outside the 30% confidence zone, that means it would tend to trend and reach the other probability levels.
Always follow the trend, don't ever try to trade mean reversions if you don't know what you're doing, as mean reversion trades are riskier.
That's all guys! I hope this indicator helps! If there's any suggestions, I'm open for it! Thanks and goodluck on your trading journey!
Bitcoin Power LawThis is the main body version of the script. The Oscillator version can be found here.
Understanding the Bitcoin Power Law Model
Also called the Long-Term Bitcoin Power Law Model. The Bitcoin Power Law model tries to capture and predict Bitcoin's price growth over time. It assumes that Bitcoin's price follows an exponential growth pattern, where the price increases over time according to a mathematical relationship.
By fitting a power law to historical data, the model creates a trend line that represents this growth. It then generates additional parallel lines (support and resistance lines) to show potential price boundaries, helping to visualize where Bitcoin’s price could move within certain ranges.
In simple terms, the model helps us understand Bitcoin's general growth trajectory and provides a framework to visualize how its price could behave over the long term.
The Bitcoin Power Law has the following function:
Power Law = 10^(a + b * log10(d))
Consisting of the following parameters:
a: Power Law Intercept (default: -17.668).
b: Power Law Slope (default: 5.926).
d: Number of days since a reference point(calculated by counting bars from the reference point with an offset).
Explanation of the a and b parameters:
Roughly explained, the optimal values for the a and b parameters are determined through a process of linear regression on a log-log scale (after applying a logarithmic transformation to both the x and y axes). On this log-log scale, the power law relationship becomes linear, making it possible to apply linear regression. The best fit for the regression is then evaluated using metrics like the R-squared value, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. This process can be quite complex and is beyond the scope of this post.
Applying vertical shifts to generate the other lines:
Once the initial power-law is created, additional lines are generated by applying a vertical shift. This shift is achieved by adding a specific number of days (or years in case of this script) to the d-parameter. This creates new lines perfectly parallel to the initial power law with an added vertical shift, maintaining the same slope and intercept.
In the case of this script, shifts are made by adding +365 days, +2 * 365 days, +3 * 365 days, +4 * 365 days, and +5 * 365 days, effectively introducing one to five years of shifts. This results in a total of six Power Law lines, as outlined below (From lowest to highest):
Base Power Law Line (no shift)
1-year shifted line
2-year shifted line
3-year shifted line
4-year shifted line
5-year shifted line
The six power law lines:
Bitcoin Power Law Oscillator
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the Bitcoin Power Law. This version applies a logarithmic transformation to the price, Base Power Law Line, and 5-year shifted line using the formula: log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed Base Power Law Line and 5-year shifted line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(Base Power Law Line) / log(5-year shifted line) - log(Base Power Law Line)
Finally, the normalized price was multiplied by 5 to map its value between 0 and 5, aligning with the shifted lines.
Interpretation of the Bitcoin Power Law Model:
The shifted Power Law lines provide a framework for predicting Bitcoin's future price movements based on historical trends. These lines are created by applying a vertical shift to the initial Power Law line, with each shifted line representing a future time frame (e.g., 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, etc.).
By analyzing these shifted lines, users can make predictions about minimum price levels at specific future dates. For example, the 5-year shifted line will act as the main support level for Bitcoin’s price in 5 years, meaning that Bitcoin’s price should not fall below this line, ensuring that Bitcoin will be valued at least at this level by that time. Similarly, the 2-year shifted line will serve as the support line for Bitcoin's price in 2 years, establishing that the price should not drop below this line within that time frame.
On the other hand, the 5-year shifted line also functions as an absolute resistance , meaning Bitcoin's price will not exceed this line prior to the 5-year mark. This provides a prediction that Bitcoin cannot reach certain price levels before a specific date. For example, the price of Bitcoin is unlikely to reach $100,000 before 2021, and it will not exceed this price before the 5-year shifted line becomes relevant. After 2028, however, the price is predicted to never fall below $100,000, thanks to the support established by the shifted lines.
In essence, the shifted Power Law lines offer a way to predict both the minimum price levels that Bitcoin will hit by certain dates and the earliest dates by which certain price points will be reached. These lines help frame Bitcoin's potential future price range, offering insight into long-term price behavior and providing a guide for investors and analysts. Lets examine some examples:
Example 1:
In Example 1 it can be seen that point A on the 5-year shifted line acts as major resistance . Also it can be seen that 5 years later this price level now corresponds to the Base Power Law Line and acts as a major support at point B (Note: Vertical yearly grid lines have been added for this purpose👍).
Example 2:
In Example 2, the price level at point C on the 3-year shifted line becomes a major support three years later at point D, now aligning with the Base Power Law Line.
Finally, let's explore some future price predictions, as this script provides projections on the weekly timeframe :
Example 3:
In Example 3, the Bitcoin Power Law indicates that Bitcoin's price cannot surpass approximately $808K before 2030 as can be seen at point E, while also ensuring it will be at least $224K by then (point F).
MTS📊 MTS (Murrey Math System) Trading Strategy for TradingView 📊
Introduction:
This script implements the Murrey Math System (MTS), a market analysis tool based on a set of pivot points and price ranges, designed to help traders identify key levels of support and resistance.
MTS calculates key price levels based on historical price swings and helps identify price targets, stop-loss levels, and potential breakout zones.
The strategy also includes an adaptive bias panel, showing buy or sell suggestions based on current price action relative to Murrey Math levels.
Key Components:
1. Pivot Calculation and Conditions:
Pivot Lookback & Spikeyness Index:
The pivots: lookback/forward input defines how far back (and forward) the script looks to identify potential pivot points (high and low). A smaller value focuses on more recent swings, while larger values consider a broader range.
The Spikeyness Index (atrMult) allows you to adjust sensitivity to market spikes, utilizing the Average True Range (ATR) to detect sharp price movements that could indicate potential turning points.
Pivot Conditions:
isPivHigh and isPivLow detect local high and low pivot points, respectively.
Spiky Conditions: The spikyH and spikyL conditions filter out pivots that do not meet the spikiness criteria, which is based on ATR and moving averages.
2. Swing High and Swing Low Identification:
The script identifies and stores previous swing highs (HR_prev) and lows (LR_prev), updating them based on the current market structure.
3. Proprietary Calculation:
The propCalc input enables a proprietary calculation method for determining higher or lower levels beyond the typical Murrey Math levels, offering a more adaptive approach to price targets and support/resistance levels.
4. Murrey Math Lines (MML):
MML Calculation:
The code calculates a set of Murrey Math Lines (EightEight, FourEight, ZeroEight), which are key price levels based on the range of the price over a given time period. These levels represent major support and resistance zones, with the EightEight line indicating extremely overbought conditions and ZeroEight signaling deeply oversold conditions.
Level and Extension Lines:
The script also plots additional levels and extensions based on the range between HR and LR, representing key support/resistance levels. These levels are dynamically drawn on the chart, offering clear insights into where price might reverse or break out.
Strategy Logic:
- Breakout and Breakdown:
The Bias Box panel dynamically displays a trade bias, either suggesting to "Buy on Dip" or "Sell on Rise," depending on whether the current price is above or below the midpoint of the Murrey Math range (BEP). This bias is calculated using the market's relationship to the Murrey Math Levels.
- Buy on Dip: When the price is below the midpoint (BEP), suggesting the market is in a buying zone.
- Sell on Rise: When the price is above the midpoint, suggesting the market is in a selling zone.
- Stop-Loss and Target Hints:
The stop-loss (SL) and target levels are dynamically set based on the position relative to HR and LR:
For Buy on Dip: SL is set at LR Low, Target is set at HR High.
For sell on Rise: SL is set at HR Low, Target is set at LR High.
2. Historical and Current Levels:
The script compares the most recent Murrey Math levels with historical levels. This helps identify any shifts or changes in the market structure, enhancing the trader's ability to adapt to new trends.
- Current Levels:
The current levels are drawn from the most recent HR and LR values, with corresponding extensions showing possible breakout or breakdown zones.
- Historical Levels:
Historical levels are drawn in a "ghost" style, helping traders visualize past market conditions and potential support/resistance zones that could still influence price movement.
- Trade Examples:
Example 1: Buy on Dip
a. Scenario:
Price is below the midpoint (BEP), and the bias suggests a buy on dip.
The trader looks for a rebound from the LR Low level, with a target at the HR High.
b. Entry:
Buy when the price reaches the LR Low level.
c. Exit:
Take profit when the price hits the HR High.
d. Stop-Loss:
Place stop-loss at the LR Low.
Example 2: Sell on Rise
a. Scenario:
Price is above the midpoint (BEP), and the bias suggests a sell on rise.
The trader looks for a pullback to the HR Low, with a target at the LR High.
b. Entry:
Sell when the price reaches the HR High level.
c. Exit:
Take profit when the price hits the LR Low.
d. Stop-Loss:
Place stop-loss at the HR Low.
Key Features:
Bias Panel: A table in the top-right corner showing the current market bias (Buy on Dip, Sell on Rise, or Neutral).
Displays real-time trade direction and risk information, such as stop-loss and target hints.
Dynamic Level Adjustment: As the price moves, the script dynamically updates the key levels (HR, LR, and Murrey Math lines), keeping traders aware of the most recent market structure.
Visualization Tools:
The chart is populated with a series of lines and labels that indicate the critical price levels for trading.
Support/Resistance Lines: Each key level is marked with different colors for quick recognition.
Extensions: Additional lines are plotted based on price projections, indicating where the market could potentially move.
Note:
Please note that this is an educational purpose idea, any action/trade taken will be user's own responsibility.
Enjoy!
Regards.
RSI Full Forecast [Titans_Invest]RSI Full Forecast
Get ready to experience the ultimate evolution of RSI-based indicators – the RSI Full Forecast, a boosted and even smarter version of the already powerful: RSI Forecast
Now featuring over 40 additional entry conditions (forecasts), this indicator redefines the way you view the market.
AI-Powered RSI Forecasting:
Using advanced linear regression with the least squares method – a solid foundation for machine learning - the RSI Full Forecast enables you to predict future RSI behavior with impressive accuracy.
But that’s not all: this new version also lets you monitor future crossovers between the RSI and the MA RSI, delivering early and strategic signals that go far beyond traditional analysis.
You’ll be able to monitor future crossovers up to 20 bars ahead, giving you an even broader and more precise view of market movements.
See the Future, Now:
• Track upcoming RSI & RSI MA crossovers in advance.
• Identify potential reversal zones before price reacts.
• Uncover statistical behavior patterns that would normally go unnoticed.
40+ Intelligent Conditions:
The new layer of conditions is designed to detect multiple high-probability scenarios based on historical patterns and predictive modeling. Each additional forecast is a window into the price's future, powered by robust mathematics and advanced algorithmic logic.
Full Customization:
All parameters can be tailored to fit your strategy – from smoothing periods to prediction sensitivity. You have complete control to turn raw data into smart decisions.
Innovative, Accurate, Unique:
This isn’t just an upgrade. It’s a quantum leap in technical analysis.
RSI Full Forecast is the first of its kind: an indicator that blends statistical analysis, machine learning, and visual design to create a true real-time predictive system.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
β₁ = Σ((xᵢ - x̄)(yᵢ - ȳ)) / Σ((xᵢ - x̄)²)
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the RSI, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an RSI time series like this:
Time →
RSI →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted RSI, which can be crossed with the actual RSI to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public RSI with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining RSI with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
RSI Full Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
_________________________________________________
🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
_________________________________________________
Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ WHAT IS THE RSI❓
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the magnitude of recent price movements to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in a market. The RSI is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversal points, as well as the strength of a trend.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE RSI❓
The RSI is calculated based on average gains and losses over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and includes three main zones:
• Overbought: When the RSI is above 70, indicating that the asset may be overbought.
• Oversold: When the RSI is below 30, indicating that the asset may be oversold.
• Neutral Zone: Between 30 and 70, where there is no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📈 RSI Conditions:
🔹 RSI > Upper
🔹 RSI < Upper
🔹 RSI > Lower
🔹 RSI < Lower
🔹 RSI > Middle
🔹 RSI < Middle
🔹 RSI > MA
🔹 RSI < MA
📈 MA Conditions:
🔹 MA > Upper
🔹 MA < Upper
🔹 MA > Lower
🔹 MA < Lower
📈 Crossovers:
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔹 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📈 RSI Divergences:
🔹 RSI Divergence Bull
🔹 RSI Divergence Bear
📈 RSI Forecast:
🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
🔹 RSI Forecast 1 > MA Forecast 1
🔹 RSI Forecast 1 < MA Forecast 1
🔹 RSI Forecast 2 > MA Forecast 2
🔹 RSI Forecast 2 < MA Forecast 2
🔹 RSI Forecast 3 > MA Forecast 3
🔹 RSI Forecast 3 < MA Forecast 3
🔹 RSI Forecast 4 > MA Forecast 4
🔹 RSI Forecast 4 < MA Forecast 4
🔹 RSI Forecast 5 > MA Forecast 5
🔹 RSI Forecast 5 < MA Forecast 5
🔹 RSI Forecast 6 > MA Forecast 6
🔹 RSI Forecast 6 < MA Forecast 6
🔹 RSI Forecast 7 > MA Forecast 7
🔹 RSI Forecast 7 < MA Forecast 7
🔹 RSI Forecast 8 > MA Forecast 8
🔹 RSI Forecast 8 < MA Forecast 8
🔹 RSI Forecast 9 > MA Forecast 9
🔹 RSI Forecast 9 < MA Forecast 9
🔹 RSI Forecast 10 > MA Forecast 10
🔹 RSI Forecast 10 < MA Forecast 10
🔹 RSI Forecast 11 > MA Forecast 11
🔹 RSI Forecast 11 < MA Forecast 11
🔹 RSI Forecast 12 > MA Forecast 12
🔹 RSI Forecast 12 < MA Forecast 12
🔹 RSI Forecast 13 > MA Forecast 13
🔹 RSI Forecast 13 < MA Forecast 13
🔹 RSI Forecast 14 > MA Forecast 14
🔹 RSI Forecast 14 < MA Forecast 14
🔹 RSI Forecast 15 > MA Forecast 15
🔹 RSI Forecast 15 < MA Forecast 15
🔹 RSI Forecast 16 > MA Forecast 16
🔹 RSI Forecast 16 < MA Forecast 16
🔹 RSI Forecast 17 > MA Forecast 17
🔹 RSI Forecast 17 < MA Forecast 17
🔹 RSI Forecast 18 > MA Forecast 18
🔹 RSI Forecast 18 < MA Forecast 18
🔹 RSI Forecast 19 > MA Forecast 19
🔹 RSI Forecast 19 < MA Forecast 19
🔹 RSI Forecast 20 > MA Forecast 20
🔹 RSI Forecast 20 < MA Forecast 20
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📉 RSI Conditions:
🔸 RSI > Upper
🔸 RSI < Upper
🔸 RSI > Lower
🔸 RSI < Lower
🔸 RSI > Middle
🔸 RSI < Middle
🔸 RSI > MA
🔸 RSI < MA
📉 MA Conditions:
🔸 MA > Upper
🔸 MA < Upper
🔸 MA > Lower
🔸 MA < Lower
📉 Crossovers:
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔸 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📉 RSI Divergences:
🔸 RSI Divergence Bull
🔸 RSI Divergence Bear
📉 RSI Forecast:
🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
🔸 RSI Forecast 1 > MA Forecast 1
🔸 RSI Forecast 1 < MA Forecast 1
🔸 RSI Forecast 2 > MA Forecast 2
🔸 RSI Forecast 2 < MA Forecast 2
🔸 RSI Forecast 3 > MA Forecast 3
🔸 RSI Forecast 3 < MA Forecast 3
🔸 RSI Forecast 4 > MA Forecast 4
🔸 RSI Forecast 4 < MA Forecast 4
🔸 RSI Forecast 5 > MA Forecast 5
🔸 RSI Forecast 5 < MA Forecast 5
🔸 RSI Forecast 6 > MA Forecast 6
🔸 RSI Forecast 6 < MA Forecast 6
🔸 RSI Forecast 7 > MA Forecast 7
🔸 RSI Forecast 7 < MA Forecast 7
🔸 RSI Forecast 8 > MA Forecast 8
🔸 RSI Forecast 8 < MA Forecast 8
🔸 RSI Forecast 9 > MA Forecast 9
🔸 RSI Forecast 9 < MA Forecast 9
🔸 RSI Forecast 10 > MA Forecast 10
🔸 RSI Forecast 10 < MA Forecast 10
🔸 RSI Forecast 11 > MA Forecast 11
🔸 RSI Forecast 11 < MA Forecast 11
🔸 RSI Forecast 12 > MA Forecast 12
🔸 RSI Forecast 12 < MA Forecast 12
🔸 RSI Forecast 13 > MA Forecast 13
🔸 RSI Forecast 13 < MA Forecast 13
🔸 RSI Forecast 14 > MA Forecast 14
🔸 RSI Forecast 14 < MA Forecast 14
🔸 RSI Forecast 15 > MA Forecast 15
🔸 RSI Forecast 15 < MA Forecast 15
🔸 RSI Forecast 16 > MA Forecast 16
🔸 RSI Forecast 16 < MA Forecast 16
🔸 RSI Forecast 17 > MA Forecast 17
🔸 RSI Forecast 17 < MA Forecast 17
🔸 RSI Forecast 18 > MA Forecast 18
🔸 RSI Forecast 18 < MA Forecast 18
🔸 RSI Forecast 19 > MA Forecast 19
🔸 RSI Forecast 19 < MA Forecast 19
🔸 RSI Forecast 20 > MA Forecast 20
🔸 RSI Forecast 20 < MA Forecast 20
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
______________________________________________________
Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
______________________________________________________
📜 SCRIPT : RSI Full Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
______________________________________________________
o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
RSI Forecast [Titans_Invest]RSI Forecast
Introducing one of the most impressive RSI indicators ever created – arguably the best on TradingView, and potentially the best in the world.
RSI Forecast is a visionary evolution of the classic RSI, merging powerful customization with groundbreaking predictive capabilities. While preserving the core principles of traditional RSI, it takes analysis to the next level by allowing users to anticipate potential future RSI movements.
Real-Time RSI Forecasting:
For the first time ever, an RSI indicator integrates linear regression using the least squares method to accurately forecast the future behavior of the RSI. This innovation empowers traders to stay one step ahead of the market with forward-looking insight.
Highly Customizable:
Easily adapt the indicator to your personal trading style. Fine-tune a variety of parameters to generate signals perfectly aligned with your strategy.
Innovative, Unique, and Powerful:
This is the world’s first RSI Forecast to apply this predictive approach using least squares linear regression. A truly elite-level tool designed for traders who want a real edge in the market.
⯁ SCIENTIFIC BASIS LINEAR REGRESSION
Linear Regression is a fundamental method of statistics and machine learning, used to model the relationship between a dependent variable y and one or more independent variables 𝑥.
The general formula for a simple linear regression is given by:
y = β₀ + β₁x + ε
Where:
y = is the predicted variable (e.g. future value of RSI)
x = is the explanatory variable (e.g. time or bar index)
β0 = is the intercept (value of 𝑦 when 𝑥 = 0)
𝛽1 = is the slope of the line (rate of change)
ε = is the random error term
The goal is to estimate the coefficients 𝛽0 and 𝛽1 so as to minimize the sum of the squared errors — the so-called Random Error Method Least Squares.
⯁ LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION
To minimize the error between predicted and observed values, we use the following formulas:
β₁ = /
β₀ = ȳ - β₁x̄
Where:
∑ = sum
x̄ = mean of x
ȳ = mean of y
x_i, y_i = individual values of the variables.
Where:
x_i and y_i are the means of the independent and dependent variables, respectively.
i ranges from 1 to n, the number of observations.
These equations guarantee the best linear unbiased estimator, according to the Gauss-Markov theorem, assuming homoscedasticity and linearity.
⯁ LINEAR REGRESSION IN MACHINE LEARNING
Linear regression is one of the cornerstones of supervised learning. Its simplicity and ability to generate accurate quantitative predictions make it essential in AI systems, predictive algorithms, time series analysis, and automated trading strategies.
By applying this model to the RSI, you are literally putting artificial intelligence at the heart of a classic indicator, bringing a new dimension to technical analysis.
⯁ VISUAL INTERPRETATION
Imagine an RSI time series like this:
Time →
RSI →
The regression line will smooth these values and extend them n periods into the future, creating a predicted trajectory based on the historical moment. This line becomes the predicted RSI, which can be crossed with the actual RSI to generate more intelligent signals.
⯁ SUMMARY OF SCIENTIFIC CONCEPTS USED
Linear Regression Models the relationship between variables using a straight line.
Least Squares Minimizes the sum of squared errors between prediction and reality.
Time Series Forecasting Estimates future values based on historical data.
Supervised Learning Trains models to predict outputs from known inputs.
Statistical Smoothing Reduces noise and reveals underlying trends.
⯁ WHY THIS INDICATOR IS REVOLUTIONARY
Scientifically-based: Based on statistical theory and mathematical inference.
Unprecedented: First public RSI with least squares predictive modeling.
Intelligent: Built with machine learning logic.
Practical: Generates forward-thinking signals.
Customizable: Flexible for any trading strategy.
⯁ CONCLUSION
By combining RSI with linear regression, this indicator allows a trader to predict market momentum, not just follow it.
RSI Forecast is not just an indicator — it is a scientific breakthrough in technical analysis technology.
⯁ Example of simple linear regression, which has one independent variable:
⯁ In linear regression, observations ( red ) are considered to be the result of random deviations ( green ) from an underlying relationship ( blue ) between a dependent variable ( y ) and an independent variable ( x ).
⯁ Visualizing heteroscedasticity in a scatterplot against 100 random fitted values using Matlab:
⯁ The data sets in the Anscombe's quartet are designed to have approximately the same linear regression line (as well as nearly identical means, standard deviations, and correlations) but are graphically very different. This illustrates the pitfalls of relying solely on a fitted model to understand the relationship between variables.
⯁ The result of fitting a set of data points with a quadratic function:
_______________________________________________________________________
🥇 This is the world’s first RSI indicator with: Linear Regression for Forecasting 🥇_______________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________
🔮 Linear Regression: PineScript Technical Parameters 🔮
_________________________________________________
Forecast Types:
• Flat: Assumes prices will remain the same.
• Linreg: Makes a 'Linear Regression' forecast for n periods.
Technical Information:
ta.linreg (built-in function)
Linear regression curve. A line that best fits the specified prices over a user-defined time period. It is calculated using the least squares method. The result of this function is calculated using the formula: linreg = intercept + slope * (length - 1 - offset), where intercept and slope are the values calculated using the least squares method on the source series.
Syntax:
• Function: ta.linreg()
Parameters:
• source: Source price series.
• length: Number of bars (period).
• offset: Offset.
• return: Linear regression curve.
This function has been cleverly applied to the RSI, making it capable of projecting future values based on past statistical trends.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ WHAT IS THE RSI❓
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical analysis indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder. It measures the magnitude of recent price movements to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in a market. The RSI is an oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100 and is commonly used to identify potential reversal points, as well as the strength of a trend.
⯁ HOW TO USE THE RSI❓
The RSI is calculated based on average gains and losses over a specified period (usually 14 periods). It is plotted on a scale from 0 to 100 and includes three main zones:
• Overbought: When the RSI is above 70, indicating that the asset may be overbought.
• Oversold: When the RSI is below 30, indicating that the asset may be oversold.
• Neutral Zone: Between 30 and 70, where there is no clear signal of overbought or oversold conditions.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ ENTRY CONDITIONS
The conditions below are fully flexible and allow for complete customization of the signal.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔹 CONDITIONS TO BUY 📈
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📈 RSI Conditions:
🔹 RSI > Upper
🔹 RSI < Upper
🔹 RSI > Lower
🔹 RSI < Lower
🔹 RSI > Middle
🔹 RSI < Middle
🔹 RSI > MA
🔹 RSI < MA
📈 MA Conditions:
🔹 MA > Upper
🔹 MA < Upper
🔹 MA > Lower
🔹 MA < Lower
📈 Crossovers:
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔹 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔹 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔹 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔹 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔹 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔹 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📈 RSI Divergences:
🔹 RSI Divergence Bull
🔹 RSI Divergence Bear
📈 RSI Forecast:
🔮 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔮 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🔸 CONDITIONS TO SELL 📉
______________________________________________________
• Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars .
• Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND or OR .
📉 RSI Conditions:
🔸 RSI > Upper
🔸 RSI < Upper
🔸 RSI > Lower
🔸 RSI < Lower
🔸 RSI > Middle
🔸 RSI < Middle
🔸 RSI > MA
🔸 RSI < MA
📉 MA Conditions:
🔸 MA > Upper
🔸 MA < Upper
🔸 MA > Lower
🔸 MA < Lower
📉 Crossovers:
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Lower
🔸 RSI (Crossover) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) Middle
🔸 RSI (Crossover) MA
🔸 RSI (Crossunder) MA
🔸 MA (Crossover) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Upper
🔸 MA (Crossover) Lower
🔸 MA (Crossunder) Lower
📉 RSI Divergences:
🔸 RSI Divergence Bull
🔸 RSI Divergence Bear
📉 RSI Forecast:
🔮 RSI (Crossover) MA Forecast
🔮 RSI (Crossunder) MA Forecast
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
🤖 AUTOMATION 🤖
• You can automate the BUY and SELL signals of this indicator.
______________________________________________________
______________________________________________________
⯁ UNIQUE FEATURES
______________________________________________________
Linear Regression: (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
Linear Regression (Forecast)
Signal Validity: The signal will remain valid for X bars
Signal Sequence: Configurable as AND/OR
Condition Table: BUY/SELL
Condition Labels: BUY/SELL
Plot Labels in the Graph Above: BUY/SELL
Automate and Monitor Signals/Alerts: BUY/SELL
______________________________________________________
📜 SCRIPT : RSI Forecast
🎴 Art by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
👨💻 Dev by : @Titans_Invest & @DiFlip
🎑 Titans Invest — The Wizards Without Gloves 🧤
✨ Enjoy!
______________________________________________________
o Mission 🗺
• Inspire Traders to manifest Magic in the Market.
o Vision 𐓏
• To elevate collective Energy 𐓷𐓏
Probability Grid [LuxAlgo]The Probability Grid tool allows traders to see the probability of where and when the next reversal would occur, it displays a 10x10 grid and/or dashboard with the probability of the next reversal occurring beyond each cell or within each cell.
🔶 USAGE
By default, the tool displays deciles (percentiles from 0 to 90), users can enable, disable and modify each percentile, but two of them must always be enabled or the tool will display an error message alerting of it.
The use of the tool is quite simple, as shown in the chart above, the further the price moves on the grid, the higher the probability of a reversal.
In this case, the reversal took place on the cell with a probability of 9%, which means that there is a probability of 91% within the square defined by the last reversal and this cell.
🔹 Grid vs Dashboard
The tool can display a grid starting from the last reversal and/or a dashboard at three predefined locations, as shown in the chart above.
🔶 DETAILS
🔹 Raw Data vs Normalized Data
By default the tool displays the normalized data, this means that instead of using the raw data (price delta between reversals) it uses the returns between each reversal, this is useful to make an apples to apples comparison of all the data in the dataset.
This can be seen in the left side of the chart above (BTCUSD Daily chart) where normalize data is disabled, the percentiles from 0 to 40 overlap and are indistinguishable from each other because the tool uses the raw price delta over the entire bitcoin history, with normalize data enabled as we can see in the right side of the chart we can have a fair comparison of the data over the entire history.
🔹 Probability Beyond or Within Each Cell
Two different probability modes are available, the default mode is Probability Beyond Each Cell, the number displayed in each cell is the probability of the next reversal to be located in the area beyond the cell, for example, if the cell displays 20%, it means that in the area formed by the square starting from the last reversal and ending at the cell, there is an 80% probability and outside that square there is a 20% probability for the location of the next reversal.
The second probability mode is the probability within each cell, this outlines the chance that the next reversal will be within the cell, as we can see on the right chart above, when using deciles as percentiles (default settings), each cell has the same 1% probability for the 10x10 grid.
🔶 SETTINGS
Swing Length: The maximum length in bars used to identify a swing
Maximum Reversals: Maximum number of reversals included in calculations
Normalize Data: Use returns between swings instead of raw price
Probability: Choose between two different probability modes: beyond and inside each cell
Percentiles: Enable/disable each of the ten percentiles and select the percentile number and line style
🔹 Dashboard
Show Dashboard: Enable or disable the dashboard
Position: Choose dashboard location
Size: Choose dashboard size
🔹 Style
Show Grid: Enable or disable the grid
Size: Choose grid text size
Colors: Choose grid background colors
Show Marks: Enable/disable reversal markers
Forward-Backward Exponential Oscillator [LuxAlgo]The Forward-Backward Exponential Oscillator is a normalized oscillator able to estimate directional shifts by making use of a unique "Forward-Backward Filtering" calculation method for Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
This unique method provides a smooth normalized representation of the price with reduced lag.
🔶 USAGE
The oscillator consists of 2 series of values derived from normalizing the sum of each EMA's change across the selected user lookback window (length), one less reactive computed forward (in grey), and the other re-calculated backward for each bar (in blue).
Given this "Forward-Backwards" calculation method, we are able to produce a more reactive oscillator compared to the same operation done on a simple double-smoothed EMA.
The interaction between these 2 values (Forward Value and Backward Value) can highlight shifts in market momentum over time.
When the Forward Value is above the Backward Value, the price is seen moving up, and likewise, when the Forward EMA is below, the Backward EMA price is seen moving down.
The indicator specifically displays the difference between values through a histogram located at the 50 mark on the oscillator.
🔹 Projection
We project the approximated future values of the forward value in front of the current line. This helps show the data that is being used for the creation of the Forward Value.
🔹 Length & Smoothing
The Smoothing Input controls the length of the EMAs which are analyzed.
The Length Input controls the lookback for the sum of changes from the EMAs.
Displayed below is a comparison of varying input sizes and their results.
As seen above:
A larger length input will result in slower, gradual movement by the oscillator since the summed values are from a larger lookback.
A higher smoothing setting will result in smoother EMAs, leading to a smoother oscillator output that is less contaminated by noisy variations.
Note: The length of the projection is tied to the "length" input, to get a longer projection, a larger length is required.
🔶 DETAILS
Forward-backward filtering is a method applied to LTI (linear time-invariant) filters to provide a filter response with zero-phase shift, this has the visible effect of shifting a regular causal filter response to the right, making it appear has have effectively 0 lag.
The name of this operation indicates that the filter is first calculated forward over a series of values (like regular moving averages), then calculated backward, using the previous output as input for the filter, effectively applying the filter twice.
While this operation effectively allows us to obtain a zero-lag response when applied to an EMA, it is subject to repainting, as this indicator only returns the normalized sum of changes of the forward-backward EMA, which does not introduce any repainting behaviors in the final output of the oscillator.
🔶 SETTINGS
Length: Change the calculation lookback length for the oscillator.
Smoothing: Alter the smoothness of the back-end EMA calculations.
Source: Change the source input used for the indicator.
Astro: Moon SizeThe Astro: Moon Size indicator, built using AstroLib , calculates the distance and visualizes the apparent size of the Moon based on astronomical positioning. This script is tailored for the 1D timeframe and provides insights into lunar perigees (closest approach) and apogees (farthest distance), making it useful for astrologically-informed trading strategies.
New Astro Indicators Feature:
By setting the Julian Date to X number of days in the future, and offsetting the plot by X number of bars accordingly, it is now possible to visualize future projections of TradingView indicators that reference the AstroLib . This feature has been long requested and is far overdue, so thank you to everyone who pushed for this feature release. Enjoy, time travelers from the future!!
Key Features:
Moon Size Calculation: Uses Julian Date (J2000) conversion and AstroLib functions to determine the Moon's apparent distance.
Future Projection: Displays the Moon's distance from 28 up to 500 days ahead, with color gradients indicating proximity/size.
Pivot Identification: Marks local maxima (apogees) and minima (perigees) with labeled date stamps for easy reference.
Dynamic Labeling: Adapts label positioning and size based on the Moon's current trend and relative size.
Usage Notes:
⚠️ Timeframe Restriction: For now, the script only functions on the 1D timeframe and will prompt an error otherwise.
⚠️ Asset Restriction: This script is meant to be loaded on charts for assets that trade 24/7, like BTCUSD historical index.
[COG] WeatherForecaster🌤️ Just like a weather forecast that adjusts as new data emerges, this TMA Pivot Points Forecaster adapts to evolving market conditions!
Description:
This indicator combines the power of a Triple Moving Average (TMA) with pivot point analysis to identify potential market turning points and trend directions. Like a meteorologist using various atmospheric data to predict weather patterns, this tool analyzes price action through multiple lenses to forecast potential market movements.
Key Features:
- Dynamic TMA Line: Acts as our "atmospheric pressure system," showing the underlying market direction
- Adaptive Pivot Points: Like weather stations, these pivots identify key market levels where the "climate" might change
- Smart Entry Signals: ☀️ and 🌧️ icons appear when conditions align for potential trades
- Timeframe-Adaptive: Automatically adjusts sensitivity across different timeframes
- Customizable Visuals: Adjust colors and styles to match your trading environment
Settings Include:
✓ TMA Length and Slope Sensitivity
✓ Pivot Point Parameters
✓ Visual Customization Options
✓ Toggle Entry Signals
✓ Toggle Pivot Lines
Note: Like weather forecasts that update with new data, this indicator recalculates as market conditions evolve. Past signals may adjust as more price action develops. Always use proper risk management and combine with other analysis tools.
Usage Guide:
The indicator works best when used as part of a complete trading system. Here's how to interpret the signals:
📈 Bullish Conditions:
- TMA Line turns green: Indicates upward momentum
- "Buy above 🌋" level appears: Potential resistance turned support level
- ☀️ Signal: Indicates favorable buying conditions
📉 Bearish Conditions:
- TMA Line turns red: Indicates downward momentum
- "Sell below 🌋" level appears: Potential support turned resistance level
- 🌧️ Signal: Indicates favorable selling conditions
⏺️ Ranging Conditions:
- TMA Line turns yellow: Market in consolidation
- 💤 Signal: Suggests waiting for clearer direction
Best Practices:
1. Higher timeframes (4H, Daily) tend to produce more reliable signals
2. Use the pivot lines as potential entry/exit reference points
3. Adjust the TMA length based on your trading style:
• Shorter lengths (20-30) for more active trading
• Longer lengths (50-60) for trend following
Settings Explained:
TMA Settings:
- TMA Length: Determines the smoothing period (default: 30)
- Slope Threshold: Controls trend sensitivity (default: 0.015)
Pivot Settings:
- Left/Right Bars: Controls pivot point calculation
- Line Length: Adjusts the visual length of pivot lines
- Line Style & Colors: Customize the visual appearance
Disclaimer:
Past performance does not guarantee future results. This indicator, like any technical tool, provides possibilities rather than certainties. Please test thoroughly on your preferred timeframes and markets before using with real capital.
Bollinger Bands Reversal Strategy Analyzer█ OVERVIEW
The Bollinger Bands Reversal Overlay is a versatile trading tool designed to help traders identify potential reversal opportunities using Bollinger Bands. It provides visual signals, performance metrics, and a detailed table to analyze the effectiveness of reversal-based strategies over a user-defined lookback period.
█ KEY FEATURES
Bollinger Bands Calculation
The indicator calculates the standard Bollinger Bands, consisting of:
A middle band (basis) as the Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the closing price.
An upper band as the basis plus a multiple of the standard deviation.
A lower band as the basis minus a multiple of the standard deviation.
Users can customize the length of the Bollinger Bands and the multiplier for the standard deviation.
Reversal Signals
The indicator identifies potential reversal signals based on the interaction between the price and the Bollinger Bands.
Two entry strategies are available:
Revert Cross: Waits for the price to close back above the lower band (for longs) or below the upper band (for shorts) after crossing it.
Cross Threshold: Triggers a signal as soon as the price crosses the lower band (for longs) or the upper band (for shorts).
Trade Direction
Users can select a trade bias:
Long: Focuses on bullish reversal signals.
Short: Focuses on bearish reversal signals.
Performance Metrics
The indicator calculates and displays the performance of trades over a user-defined lookback period ( barLookback ).
Metrics include:
Win Rate: The percentage of trades that were profitable.
Mean Return: The average return across all trades.
Median Return: The median return across all trades.
These metrics are calculated for each bar in the lookback period, providing insights into the strategy's performance over time.
Visual Signals
The indicator plots buy and sell signals on the chart:
Buy Signals: Displayed as green triangles below the price bars.
Sell Signals: Displayed as red triangles above the price bars.
Performance Table
A customizable table is displayed on the chart, showing the performance metrics for each bar in the lookback period.
The table includes:
Win Rate: Highlighted with gradient colors (green for high win rates, red for low win rates).
Mean Return: Colored based on profitability (green for positive returns, red for negative returns).
Median Return: Colored similarly to the mean return.
Time Filtering
Users can define a specific time window for the indicator to analyze trades, ensuring that performance metrics are calculated only for the desired period.
Customizable Display
The table's font size can be adjusted to suit the user's preference, with options for "Auto," "Small," "Normal," and "Large."
█ PURPOSE
The Bollinger Bands Reversal Overlay is designed to:
Help traders identify high-probability reversal opportunities using Bollinger Bands.
Provide actionable insights into the performance of reversal-based strategies.
Enable users to backtest and optimize their trading strategies by analyzing historical performance metrics.
█ IDEAL USERS
Swing Traders: Looking for reversal opportunities within a trend.
Mean Reversion Traders: Interested in trading price reversals to the mean.
Strategy Developers: Seeking to backtest and refine Bollinger Bands-based strategies.
Performance Analysts: Wanting to evaluate the effectiveness of reversal signals over time.
ForecastPro by BinhMyco1. Overview:
This Pine Script implements a custom forecasting tool on TradingView, labeled "BinhMyco." It provides a method to predict future price movements based on historical data and a comparison with similar historical patterns. The script supports two types of forecasts: **Prediction** and **Replication**, where the forecasted price can be either based on price peaks/troughs or an average direction. The script also calculates a confidence probability, showing how closely the forecasted data aligns with historical trends.
2. Inputs:
- Source (`src`): The input data source for forecasting, which defaults to `open`.
- Length (`len`): The length of the training data used for analysis (fixed at 200).
- Reference Length (`leng`): A fixed reference length for comparing similar historical patterns (set to 70).
- Forecast Length (`length`): The length of the forecast period (fixed at 60).
- Multiplier (`mult`): A constant multiplier for the forecast confidence cone (set to 4.0).
- Forecast Type (`typ`): Type of forecast, either **Prediction** or **Replication**.
- Direction Type (`dirtyp`): Defines how the forecast is calculated — either based on price **peaks/troughs** or an **average direction**.
- Forecast Divergence Cone (`divcone`): A boolean option to enable the display of a confidence cone around the forecast.
3. Color Constants:
- Green (`#00ffbb`): Color used for upward price movements.
- Red (`#ff0000`): Color used for downward price movements.
- Reference Data Color (`refcol`): Blue color for the reference data.
- Similar Data Color (`simcol`): Orange color for the most similar data.
- Forecast Data Color (`forcol`): Yellow color for forecasted data.
4. Error Checking:
- The script checks if the reference length is greater than half the training data length, and if the forecast length exceeds the reference length, raising errors if either condition is true.
5. Arrays for Calculation:
- Correlation Array (`c`): Holds the correlation values between the data source (`src`) and historical data points.
- Index Array (`index`): Stores the indices of the historical data for comparison.
6. Forecasting Logic:
- Correlation Calculation: The script calculates the correlation between the historical data (`src`) and the reference data over the given reference length. It then identifies the point in history most similar to the current data.
- Forecast Price Calculation: Based on the type of forecast (Prediction or Replication), the script calculates future prices either by predicting based on similar bars or by replicating past data. The forecasted prices are stored in the `forecastPrices` array.
- Forecast Line Drawing: The script draws lines to represent the forecasted price movements. These lines are color-coded based on whether the forecasted price is higher or lower than the current price.
7. Divergence Cone (Optional):
- If the **divcone** option is enabled, the script calculates and draws a confidence cone around the forecasted prices. The upper and lower bounds of the cone are calculated using a standard deviation factor, providing a visual representation of forecast uncertainty.
8. Probability Table:
- A table is displayed on the chart, showing the probability of the forecast being accurate. This probability is calculated using the correlation between the current data and the most similar historical pattern. If the probability is positive, the table background turns green; if negative, it turns red. The probability is presented as a percentage.
9. Key Functions:
- `highest_range` and `lowest_range`: Functions to find the highest and lowest price within a range of bars.
- `ftype`: Determines the forecast type (Prediction or Replication) and adjusts the forecasting logic accordingly.
- `ftypediff`: Computes the difference between the forecasted and actual prices based on the selected forecast type.
- `ftypelim`, `ftypeleft`, `ftyperight`: Additional functions to adjust the calculation of the forecast based on the forecast type.
10. Conclusion:
The "ForecastPro" script is a unique tool for forecasting future price movements on TradingView. It compares historical price data with similar historical trends to generate predictions. The script also offers a customizable confidence cone and displays the probability of the forecast's accuracy. This tool provides traders with valuable insights into future price action, potentially enhancing decision-making in trading strategies.
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This script provides advanced functionality for traders who wish to explore price forecasting, and can be customized to fit various trading styles.
Three Step Future-Trend [BigBeluga]Three Step Future-Trend by BigBeluga is a forward-looking trend analysis tool designed to project potential future price direction based on historical periods. This indicator aggregates data from three consecutive periods, using price averages and delta volume analysis to forecast trend movement and visualize it on the chart with a projected trend line and volume metrics.
🔵 Key Features:
Three Period Analysis: Calculates price averages and delta volumes from three specified periods, creating a consolidated view of historical price movement.
Future Trend Line Projection: Plots a forward trend line based on the calculated averag of three periods, helping traders visualize potential future price movement.
Avg Delta Volume and Future Price Label: Shows a delta average Volume a long with a Future Price label at the end of the projected trend line, indicating the possible future delta volume and future Price.
Volume Data Table: Displays a detailed table showing delta and total volume for each of the three periods, allowing quick volume comparison to support the projected trend.
This indicator provides a dynamic way to anticipate market direction by blending price and volume data, giving traders insights into both volume and trend strength in upcoming periods.
High/Low Location Frequency [LuxAlgo]The High/Low Location Frequency tool provides users with probabilities of tops and bottoms at user-defined periods, along with advanced filters that offer deep and objective market information about the likelihood of a top or bottom in the market.
🔶 USAGE
There are four different time periods that traders can select for analysis of probabilities:
HOUR OF DAY: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each hour of the day
DAY OF WEEK: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the week
DAY OF MONTH: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the month
MONTH OF YEAR: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each month
The data is displayed as a dashboard, which users can position according to their preferences. The dashboard includes useful information in the header, such as the number of periods and the date from which the data is gathered. Additionally, users can enable active filters to customize their view. The probabilities are displayed in one, two, or three columns, depending on the number of elements.
🔹 Advanced Filters
Advanced Filters allow traders to exclude specific data from the results. They can choose to use none or all filters simultaneously, inputting a list of numbers separated by spaces or commas. However, it is not possible to use both separators on the same filter.
The tool is equipped with five advanced filters:
HOURS OF DAY: The permitted range is from 0 to 23.
DAYS OF WEEK: The permitted range is from 1 to 7.
DAYS OF MONTH: The permitted range is from 1 to 31.
MONTHS: The permitted range is from 1 to 12.
YEARS: The permitted range is from 1000 to 2999.
It should be noted that the DAYS OF WEEK advanced filter has been designed for use with tickers that trade every day, such as those trading in the crypto market. In such cases, the numbers displayed will range from 1 (Sunday) to 7 (Saturday). Conversely, for tickers that do not trade over the weekend, the numbers will range from 1 (Monday) to 5 (Friday).
To illustrate the application of this filter, we will exclude results for Mondays and Tuesdays, the first five days of each month, January and February, and the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Let us review the results:
DAYS OF WEEK: `2,3` or `2 3` (for crypto) or `1,2` or `1 2` (for the rest)
DAYS OF MONTH: `1,2,3,4,5` or `1 2 3 4 5`
MONTHS: `1,2` or `1 2`
YEARS: `2020,2021,2022` or `2020 2021 2022`
🔹 High Probability Lines
The tool enables traders to identify the next period with the highest probability of a top (red) and/or bottom (green) on the chart, marked with two horizontal lines indicating the location of these periods.
🔹 Top/Bottom Labels and Periods Highlight
The tool is capable of indicating on the chart the upper and lower limits of each selected period, as well as the commencement of each new period, thus providing traders with a convenient reference point.
🔶 SETTINGS
Period: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from, max value as default.
Execution Window: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from
🔹 Advanced Filters
Hours of day: Filter which hours of the day are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of hours from 0 to 23 separated by commas or spaces, users can not mix commas or spaces as a separator, must choose one
Days of week: Filter which days of the week are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 5 for tickers not trading weekends, or from 1 to 7 for tickers trading all week, users can choose between commas or spaces as a separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Days of month: Filter which days of the month are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 31, users can choose between commas or spaces as separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Months: Filter months to exclude from data. Accepts months from 1 to 12. Choose one separator: comma or space.
Years: Filter years to exclude from data. Accepts years from 1000 to 2999. Choose one separator: comma or space.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard Location: Select both the vertical and horizontal parameters for the desired location of the dashboard.
Dashboard Size: Select size for dashboard.
🔹 Style
High Probability Top Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Top` vertical line and choose color
High Probability Bottom Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Bottom` vertical line and choose color
Top Label: Enable/disable period top labels, choose color and size.
Bottom Label: Enable/disable period bottom labels, choose color and size.
Highlight Period Changes: Enable/disable vertical highlight at start of period
Future Trend Channel [ChartPrime]The Future Trend Channel indicator is a dynamic tool for identifying trends and projecting future prices based on channel formations. The indicator uses SMA (Simple Moving Average) and volatility calculations to plot channels that visually represent trends. It also detects moments of lower momentum, indicated by neutral color changes in the channels, and projects future price levels for up to 50 bars ahead.
⯁ KEY FEATURES AND HOW TO USE
⯌ Dynamic Trend Channels :
The indicator draws channels when a trend is identified. It uses a combination of SMA and volatility to determine the direction and strength of the trend. Each channel is visualized with a specific color, where green indicates an uptrend and orange represents a downtrend.
Example of channels during uptrend and downtrend:
⯌ Momentum-Based Color Shifts :
The indicator adapts its channel colors based on momentum changes. When the starting point (Y1) of a channel is higher than its ending point (Y2) during an uptrend, the channel turns neutral, indicating lower momentum and a possible ranging market. The same applies in a downtrend, where the channel turns neutral if Y1 is lower than Y2.
Example of neutral momentum channels:
⯌ Future Price Projection :
At the end of each channel, the indicator generates a projected future price based on the midpoint of the channel. By default, this projection is made 50 bars into the future, but users can adjust the number of bars to their preference.
Example of future price projection:
⯌ Diamond Signals for Valid Trends :
Lime-colored diamonds appear when an uptrend channel is confirmed, while orange diamonds indicate valid downtrend channels. These signals confirm the presence of a strong trend and help identify valid entry and exit points. Neutral channels, which indicate lower momentum, do not show diamond signals.
Example of trend confirmation signals:
⯌ Customizable Settings :
Users can adjust the channel length (how far back the trend is analyzed) and the width (which determines the channel boundaries based on volatility). The future price projection can also be customized to forecast further or fewer bars into the future.
⯁ USER INPUTS
Trend Length : Sets the number of bars used to calculate the trend channels.
Channel Width : Adjusts the width of the channels, based on volatility (ATR multiplier).
Up and Down Colors : Allows customization of the colors used for uptrend and downtrend channels.
Future Bars : Sets the number of bars used for future price projection.
⯁ CONCLUSION
The Future Trend Channel indicator is a versatile tool for identifying and trading trends. With its ability to detect momentum shifts and project future prices, it provides traders with key insights for making more informed decisions. The use of diamond signals for trend validation adds an extra layer of confirmation, helping traders act with greater confidence during volatile or trending markets.
Dual price forecast with Projection Zone [FXSMARTLAB]The Dual Price Forecast with Projection Zone indicator is built to simulate potential future price paths based on historical price movements over two defined lookback periods. By running multiple trials (or simulations) on these historical price movements, the indicator achieves a more robust forecast, incorporating the inherent variability of price behavior.
Key Components and Calculation Details
1. Lookback Periods and Historical Price Movements
Lookback Period 1 and Lookback Period 2 specify the range of past data used to generate each projection. For each period, the indicator calculates the price variations (differences between the closing and opening prices) and stores these in arrays.
These historical price variations capture the volatility and price patterns within each period, serving as templates for future price behavior.
2. Trials: Purpose and Function
The trials are a critical element in the projection calculation. Each trial represents a single simulation of possible future price movements, derived from a random reordering of the historical price variations in each lookback period.
By running multiple trials , the indicator explores various sequences of historical movements, simulating different possible future paths. Each trial adds to the projection’s robustness by capturing a unique potential price path based on past behavior.
Running these multiple trials allows the indicator to account for randomness in price behavior, making the projections more comprehensive by covering a range of scenarios rather than relying on a single deterministic forecast.
3. Reverse Option
The reverse option allows the indicator to invert the direction of price movements within each lookback period. When enabled, historical uptrends are treated as downtrends, and vice versa.
This feature is particularly valuable in scenarios where traders expect a potential reversal in market direction. By enabling the reverse option, the indicator can simulate what might happen if past trends inverted, providing an alternative forecast path that considers possible market reversals.
This allows traders to assess both continuation and reversal scenarios, giving them a more balanced view of potential future price paths and helping them prepare for either market direction.
4. Generating the Average Projection Path
Once the trials are complete, the indicator calculates an average projected price path for each lookback period by averaging the results of all trials. This average represents the most likely price trend based on historical data and provides a smoothed projection that mitigates extreme outliers.
By averaging across all trial paths, the indicator generates a more reliable and balanced forecast line, smoothing out the fluctuations that might appear if only one trial or a small number of trials were used.
5. Projection Zone Visualization
The indicator plots the two average projection paths (one for each lookback period) as Projection 1 and Projection 2, each in a user-defined color.
The Projection Zone is the area between these two lines, filled with a semi-transparent color. This zone visually represents the potential range of future price movement, highlighting where prices are likely to oscillate if historical trends persist.
The Projection Zone effectively functions as a potential support and resistance boundary, providing traders with a visual reference for possible price fluctuations within a specific range.
6. Display of Lookback Zones
To give context to the projections, the indicator can also display colored lookback zones on the chart. These zones correspond to Lookback Period 1 and Lookback Period 2 and are color-coded to match their respective projection lines.
These zones allow traders to see the sections of historical data used in the calculation, helping them understand which past price behaviors influenced the current projections.
Benefits of the Indicator
The "Dual Price Forecast with Projection Zone" indicator provides a multi-scenario forecast based on past price dynamics. Its use of trials ensures that projections are not based on a single deterministic path but on a range of possible scenarios that better reflect the inherent randomness in financial markets.
By generating a probabilistic forecast within a defined zone, the indicator helps traders to:
Anticipate potential price ranges and areas of support/resistance based on historical trends.
Understand the influence of different timeframes (short-term and long-term lookbacks) on future price behavior.
Make informed decisions by visualizing the likely variability of future prices within a controlled projection zone.
Prepare for both continuation and reversal scenarios, thanks to the reverse option. This feature is especially useful in markets where trends may change direction, as it allows traders to explore what might happen
Similar Price ActionDescription:
The indicator tries to find an area of N candles in history that has the most similar price action to the latest N candles. The maximum search distance is limited to 5000 candles. It works by calculating a coefficient for each candle and comparing it with the coefficient of the latest candle, thus searching for two closest values. The indicator highlights the latest N candles, as well as the most similar area found in the past, and also tries to predict future price based on the latest price and price directly after the most similar area that was found in the past.
Inputs:
- Length -> the area we are searching for is comprised of this many candles
- Lookback -> maximum distance in which a similar area can be found
- Function -> the function used to compare latest and past prices
Notes:
- The indicator is intended to work on smaller timeframes where the overall price difference is not very high, but can be used on any
[DarkTrader] Intersection Level & PredictionLinear Regression Function Reference by @RicardoSantos :
The Intersection Level Calculation process identifies critical price levels where significant market reactions are expected. It starts by analyzing historical price action and technical indicators to pinpoint key support and resistance levels.
Price Forecast Min represents the predicted lowest price level that the asset might reach, while Price Forecast Max indicates the anticipated highest price level. These projections are calculated using statistical methods and historical price patterns, allowing traders to anticipate potential support and resistance zones. By providing these forecasts, traders can better manage their risk and set more informed entry and exit points based on projected price movements.
Example Of Prediction (Before & After)
Predicting Future Price Movements :
Once the intersection levels are identified, the indicator uses various predictive models to forecast what price might do next when it approaches these levels. Here’s a breakdown of how it achieves this :
Price Reaction Analysis: The indicator assesses how price has historically reacted to similar intersection levels. For instance, if price has reversed from a certain support level multiple times, the indicator can predict a potential reversal or bounce when price approaches that level again.
Trend Continuation or Reversal: It examines the strength of the current trend by analyzing momentum indicators, volume, and the angle or direction of trendlines. Based on this, it can predict whether price is likely to break through an intersection level, signaling trend continuation, or bounce off it, indicating a potential reversal.
Confluence of Factors: The prediction mechanism becomes more accurate when multiple factors converge at the same intersection level. For example, if a trendline, moving average, and support zone all intersect at the same price point, the indicator predicts a stronger likelihood of significant price movement.
Market Volatility and Momentum: The indicator also considers current market volatility and momentum in its prediction. For example, if price approaches an intersection level with high momentum, it might predict a breakout, whereas low momentum might suggest consolidation or a weaker price reaction.
In this indicator, I utilize Linear Regression to forecast price movements by analyzing historical data trends. Linear Regression involves fitting a straight line to past price data, enabling me to model and project future price levels based on identified trends. This method calculates a trend line that best represents the historical price behavior, providing a foundation for predicting future price points. By extending this trend line, I can estimate where prices might move, incorporating a range to account for potential deviations. This approach helps in identifying both minimum and maximum forecasted prices, offering valuable insights into potential market directions.
Trend Forecasting - The Quant Science🌏 Trend Forecasting | ENG 🌏
This plug-in acts as a statistical filter, adding new information to your chart that will allow you to quickly verify the direction of a trend and the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future, helping you to uncover probable market inefficiencies.
🧠 Model calculation
The model calculates the arithmetic mean in relation to positive and negative events within the available sample for the selected time series. Where a positive event is defined as a closing price greater than the average, and a negative event as a closing price less than the average. Once all events have been calculated, the probabilities are extrapolated by relating each event.
Example
Positive event A: 70
Negative event B: 30
Total events: 100
Probabilities A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Probabilities B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Event A has a 70% probability of occurring compared to Event B which has a 30% probability.
🔍 Information Filter
The data on the graph show the future probabilities of prices being above average (default in green) and the probabilities of prices being below average (default in red).
The information that can be quickly retrieved from this indicator is:
1. Trend: Above-average prices together with a constant of data in green greater than 50% + 1 indicate that the observed historical series shows a bullish trend. The probability is correlated proportionally to the value of the data; the higher and increasing the expected value, the greater the observed bullish trend. On the other hand, a below-average price together with a red-coloured data constant show quantitative data regarding the presence of a bearish trend.
2. Future Probability: By analysing the data, it is possible to find the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future. In green are classified the probabilities that the price will be higher than the average, in red are classified the probabilities that the price will be lower than the average.
🔫 Operational Filter .
The indicator can be used operationally in the search for investment or trading opportunities given its ability to identify an inefficiency within the observed data sample.
⬆ Bullish forecast
For bullish trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bullish trend, with high probability of a bullish trend in the future that is currently below the average.
⬇ Bearish forecast
For short trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bearish trend, with a high probability of a bearish trend in the future that is currently above the average.
📚 Settings
Input: via the Input user interface, it is possible to adjust the periods (1 to 500) with which the average is to be calculated. By default the periods are set to 200, which means that the average is calculated by taking the last 200 periods.
Style: via the Style user interface it is possible to adjust the colour and switch a specific output on or off.
🇮🇹Previsione Della Tendenza Futura | ITA 🇮🇹
Questo plug-in funge da filtro statistico, aggiungendo nuove informazioni al tuo grafico che ti permetteranno di verificare rapidamente tendenza di un trend, probabilità con la quale il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro aiutandoti a scovare probabili inefficienze di mercato.
🧠 Calcolo del modello
Il modello calcola la media aritmetica in relazione con gli eventi positivi e negativi all'intero del campione disponibile per la serie storica selezionata. Dove per evento positivo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura maggiore della media, mentre per evento negativo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura minore della media. Calcolata la totalità degli eventi le probabilità vengono estrapolate rapportando ciascun evento.
Esempio
Evento positivo A: 70
Evento negativo B: 30
Totale eventi : 100
Formula A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Formula B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Evento A ha una probabilità del 70% di realizzarsi rispetto all' Evento B che ha una probabilità pari al 30%.
🔍 Filtro informativo
I dati sul grafico mostrano le probabilità future che i prezzi siano sopra la media (di default in verde) e le probabilità che i prezzi siano sotto la media (di default in rosso).
Le informazioni che si possono rapidamente reperire da questo indicatore sono:
1. Trend: I prezzi sopra la media insieme ad una costante di dati in verde maggiori al 50% + 1 indicano che la serie storica osservata presenta un trend rialzista. La probabilità è correlata proporzionalmente al valore del dato; tanto più sarà alto e crescente il valore atteso e maggiore sarà la tendenza rialzista osservata. Viceversa, un prezzo sotto la media insieme ad una costante di dati classificati in colore rosso mostrano dati quantitativi riguardo la presenza di una tendenza ribassista.
2. Probabilità future: analizzando i dati è possibile reperire la probabilità con cui il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro. In verde vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà maggiore alla media, in rosso vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà minore della media.
🔫 Filtro operativo
L' indicatore può essere utilizzato a livello operativo nella ricerca di opportunità di investimento o di trading vista la capacità di identificare un inefficienza all'interno del campione di dati osservato.
⬆ Previsione rialzista
Per operatività di tipo rialzista l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza rialzista, con alte probabilità di tendenza rialzista in futuro che attualmente si trova al di sotto della media.
⬇ Previsione ribassista
Per operatività di tipo short l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza ribassista, con alte probabilità di tendenza ribassista in futuro che si trova attualmente sopra la media.
📚 Impostazioni
Input: tramite l'interfaccia utente Input è possibile regolare i periodi (da 1 a 500) con cui calcolare la media. Di default i periodi sono impostati sul valore di 200, questo significa che la media viene calcolata prendendo gli ultimi 200 periodi.
Style: tramite l'interfaccia utente Style è possibile regolare il colore e attivare o disattivare un specifico output.
Moving Average Cross Probability [AlgoAlpha]Moving Average Cross Probability 📈✨
The Moving Average Cross Probability by AlgoAlpha calculates the probability of a cross-over or cross-under between the fast and slow values of a user defined Moving Average type before it happens, allowing users to benefit by front running the market.
✨ Key Features:
📊 Probability Histogram: Displays the Probability of MA cross in the form of a histogram.
🔄 Data Table: Displays forecast information for quick analysis.
🎨 Customizable MAs: Choose from various moving averages and customize their length.
🚀 How to Use:
🛠 Add Indicator: Add the indicator to favorites, and customize the settings to suite your trading style.
📊 Analyze Market: Watch the indicator to look for trend shifts early or for trend continuations.
🔔 Set Alerts: Get notified of bullish/bearish points.
✨ How It Works:
The Moving Average Cross Probability Indicator by AlgoAlpha determines the probability by looking at a probable range of values that the price can take in the next bar and finds out what percentage of those possibilities result in the user defined moving average crossing each other. This is done by first using the HMA to predict what the next price value will be, a standard deviation based range is then calculated. The range is divided by the user defined resolution and is split into multiple levels, each of these levels represent a possible value for price in the next bar. These possible predicted values are used to calculate the possible MA values for both the fast and slow MAs that may occur in the next bar and are then compared to see how many of those possible MA results end up crossing each other.
Stay ahead of the market with the Moving Average Cross Probability Indicator AlgoAlpha! 📈💡
Median Analyst ConsensusThe Median Analyst Consensus Indicator provides an unbiased, easy-to-interpret view of market sentiment by leveraging TradingView's comprehensive financial data library. This tool displays the median 12-month price target and the percentage difference from the current price directly on your charts.
Key Features
1. Accurate Market Sentiment: By consolidating analyst ratings and price targets from multiple reputable sources like Bloomberg, Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters), S&P Capital IQ, and Morningstar, this indicator displays the median analyst consensus. Using the median ensures outlier ratings don't skew the overall sentiment, providing a more robust representation.
2. Simplicity at a Glance: View the median 12-month price target and percentage difference from the current price directly on your chart. No need to juggle multiple reports - key insights are surfaced within your normal trading workflow.
3. Data-Driven Transparency: If no analyst data is available for a particular asset, the indicator will not display, ensuring you only see reliable information. The number of contributing analysts is also shown for context.
Why the Median?
The median is favored over the mean to minimize the impact of outlier ratings that could distort the consensus view. By taking the middle value across all analyst projections, the median provides a more stable, outlier-resistant measure of market sentiment.
Powered by TradingView Data
This indicator taps into TradingView's financial data library, which aggregates analyst ratings, estimates, and recommendations from leading institutional data providers. TradingView sources this data from firms like FactSet, Bloomberg, Refinitiv, S&P Capital IQ, and Morningstar, ensuring a comprehensive and trusted view of analyst sentiment.
The library provides variables like:
syminfo.recommendations_buy
syminfo.recommendations_sell
syminfo.target_price_median
syminfo.recommendations_buy_strong
syminfo.recommendations_sell_strong
The indicator calculates and displays the median of these analyst inputs.
Usage
The indicator displays:
The median 12-month price target across analysts
The percentage difference between the price target and current price
The number of contributing analyst estimates
If no analyst data is available, the indicator does not display, ensuring full transparency.
The Median Analyst Consensus Indicator provides an unbiased, easy-to-interpret view of market sentiment by leveraging TradingView's comprehensive financial data library. This tool offers a new perspective on potential trade opportunities directly on your charts.
Disclaimer
While the data is sourced from reputable providers, analyst forecasts should not be construed as investment recommendations. This indicator aims to synthesize market opinions, but investment decisions are solely your responsibility. As with any analytical tool, you should conduct your own research and risk assessments before executing any trades.
Nasan Moving Average with ForecastThe "Nasan Moving Average with Forecast" indicator is a technical analysis forecasting tool that combines the principles of historical data analysis and random walk theory. It calculates a customized moving average (Nasan Moving Average) by integrating price data and statistical measures and projects future price points by generating forecast values within calculated volatility bounds, creating a dynamic and insightful visualization of potential market movements. This indicator to blend past market behavior with probabilistic future trends to enhance forecasting.
Input Parameters:
len: Differencing length (default 21, Use a minimum of 5 and for lower time frames less than 15 min use values between 300 -3000)
len1: Correction Factor Length 1 (default 21, this determines the length of the MA you want , eg. 10 MA, 50 MA, 100 MA, )
len2: Correction Factor Length 2 (default 9, this works best if it is ~ </=1/2 of len1 )
len3: Smoothing Length (default 5, I would not change this and only use if I want to introduce lag where you want to use it for cross over strategies).
forecast_points: Number of points to forecast (default 30).
m: Multiplier for standard deviation (default 2.5).
bl: Block length for calculating max/min values (default 100).
use_calculated_max_min: Boolean to decide whether to use calculated max/min values.
Nasan Moving Average Calculation:
Calculates the simple moving average (mean) and standard deviation (sd) of the typical price (hlc3).
Computes intermediate variables (a, b, c, etc.) based on log transformation and cumulative sum.
Applies weighted moving averages (wma) to these intermediate variables to smooth them and derive the final value c6.
Plots c6 as the Nasan Moving Average if the bar is confirmed. To learn more see Nasan Moving Average.
Forecast Points Calculation:
Calculates maximum (max_val) and minimum (min_val) values for the forecast, either using a fixed value or based on standard deviation and a multiplier.
Initializes an array to store forecast values and creates polyline objects for plotting.
If the current bar is one of the last three bars and confirmed:
Clears and reinitializes the polyline.
Initializes the first forecast value from the cumulative sum c.
Generates subsequent forecast values using a random value within the range .
Updates the forecast array and plots the forecast points as an orange curved polyline.
Plotting Max/Min Values:
Plots max_val and min_val as green and red lines, respectively, to indicate the bounds of the forecast range.
Components of the Forecasting Model
Historical Dependence:
Nasan Moving Average Calculation: The script calculates a custom moving average (c6) that incorporates historical price data (hlc3), standard deviations (sd), and weighted moving averages (wma). This part of the code processes historical data to create a smoothed representation of the price trend.
Max/Min Value Calculation: The maximum (max_val) and minimum (min_val) values for the forecast can be calculated based on the historical standard deviation of a transformed variable b over a block length (bl). This introduces historical volatility into the bounds for the forecast.
Random Walk Model:
Random Value Generation: Within the forecast points calculation, a random value (random_val) is generated for each forecast point within the range . This random value introduces stochasticity into the model, characteristic of a random walk process.
Cumulative Sum for Forecasting: The script uses a cumulative sum (prev_f + random_val) to generate the next forecast point (next_f). This is a typical approach in random walk models where each new point is based on the previous point plus some random noise.
Explanation of the Forecast Model
Random Walk Characteristics: Each new forecast point is generated by adding a random value to the previous point, making the model a random walk with drift, where the drift is influenced by historical correction factors (c1, c4).
Historical and Statistical Dependence: The bounds of the random values and the initial conditions are derived from historical data, ensuring that the forecast respects historical volatility and trends.
The forecasting model in the script is a hybrid approach: It uses a random walk to generate future points, characterized by adding random values to the previous forecasted value.
The historical and statistical dependence is incorporated through initial conditions, scaling factors, and bounds derived from historical price data and its statistical properties.
This combination ensures that the forecasts are not purely stochastic but are grounded in historical price behavior, making the model more robust and potentially more accurate in reflecting market conditions.
