AUDNZD Channel Up vs Head and Shoulders

The AUDNZD pair has been trading within a Channel Up ever since the November 19 2021 Low. Two upper and lower tolerance levels of 1.236 and -0.236 have been accounted for. This time though, as the price is trading around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 20, using it as a pivot, a new pattern has emerged. That is a Head and Shoulders (H&S).

That is so far contained within the Channel Up but a break below it can see the price testing the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since January 17. Our trading plan is based on the break-out (candle close) approach. A break below the lower tolerance level of the Channel constitutes a sell signal towards the -1.0 Fibonacci extension (1.075), in which case the H&S pattern prevails. Until that happens, we continue being within the dominant Channel Up, hence bullish towards a new long-term Higher High near the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (1.1383).


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