BABA - Dangerous Name

I've seen a few people interested in this name and so this post is really just a warning. I have no interest in buying this stock currently.

And this is where Elliott wave is very useful in seeing the bigger picture.

If you're using RSi and other past informed indicators, they will of course find you entries, but this is relevant to the "relative strength" - which is relative to the trend.

That is why you can tie yourself in knots if you can't see a trend change.

Here we have a clear 3 wave pattern topping at 0.618 and so the bullish phase is a 1:0.618 3 wave pattern.

3 waves is commonly corrective and so a change of trend may see a more powerful 5 wave trend.

And your RSI will show you oversold because it is in comparison to the previous trend.

BABA price could recover, but it has fallen badly through the 50Mma and will need to recover. It doesn't look good.

If the bearish outcome proves true it could be years before price recovers to these levels.

I think it gets down to $110 at least.

Not advice.

Komen:

This is not a gripe at RSI which is a very potent indicator.

Komen:

If you ever wonder if you're biased - just turn the chart updside down. Would you short this? I wouldn't. It looks like a new and dominant trend is beginning. That said Weekly RSI is extended so I would expect a strong bounce soon.

Komen:

Neely: "The fastest move dictates the dominant trend."

Komen:

Buy the dip they said... 🙄

Komen:

Falling into the abyss just as I said it would.