frankmorel

Bitcoin macro-view; non-linear regression

BNC:BLX   BraveNewCoin Liquid Index for Bitcoin
Inspired by the logarithmic regression models in the old bitcoin             forum thread, I drew up the above macro chart.

Disclaimer: I don't believe this chart has any predictive value. At all. This is for entertainment purposes only. Nonetheless, I find this chart highly fascinating. Bitcoins             fractal nature couldn't be more obvious. Some observations:

The baseline has been Bitcoin's absolute bottom for its entire existance. It currently sits at ~2k, and a little under 4k EOY. I consider 2k *highly* unlikely, but 4k seems within the realm of possibilities. For long term trading, this line is worth keeping an eye on; I'll restart my weekly buy-ins if we ever get close (haven't done so since ~1k). This is assuming no fundamental changes to Bitcoin             , or the ecosystem.

Connecting all bubble tops will form perfectly parallel channels with the baseline.

Bubble line 1 has acted as restistance on *five* seperate occasions between 2010 and 2017. It has acted as support (short or long term) three to five times, depending on how strict your definition of support is. This single fact by itself is already pretty awesome. We're still above this line. Currently at ~7k. Could a double bubble scenario still be in play?

Bubble line 2 was the top of the March 2013 bubble and December 2017 bubble. It has acted as resistance on the May 2015 dead cat bounce, sending the price down back to Bubble line 1, and eventually baseline. Also some short-lived chop in March 2014 around this line.

Bubble line 3, aka Hopium Line, formed by the 2011 and 2013 super bubbles. Currently at ~50k, and the mythical 100k EOY. Current sentiment in the crypto scene is in the shitter, so is public interest. Hopium line seems only feasible *if* we do some sideways consolidation for a few months (getting rid of panic) *and* some fundamental development that drains alts and solidifies BTC             as the one true coin (LN could achieve this).
Can you post an updated version of this, or the script? Would love to see where we are now. Looks like Oct = 20k based on the mean.
Balas
Awesome chart mate! This puts everything into perspective. Can you please share the regression function's parameters? It would be helpful in my analyses!
Balas
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