This is also looking like a of the 2700-> 1800$ scenario earlier in 2017
Expect a small recovery, and a new storm down to 10k in a V shape, small retracement to setup an inverted head and shoulder, then new bull run cycle for btc to last ATH
Target is still 8500 - 10 000$, but buying now and starting to build a position might not be a bad idea
for me, Lightning is the next step
of course they buy btc at FUD around 3k, about china banning investments
Pump the hell out of it with good marketing and good old' Tethers
short it at 20k with futures
distribute their btc 20k -> 10k to supress everybody. Each has it's own refuge (XRP, NEO...)
cash in the Futures
they buy back everything x4
release news such as "Russia will continue china's mining operation and bought it from them, with cheaper gas for electricity production"
"lightning network solves 99% of scalability issues of bitcoin, mining is not needed anymore" (or less, or suffisant)
and let's go for another riiiiiide!
triple whammy with an ETF launch by the WInklevoss etc"
Decreasing volume. Getting harder and harder to find sellers. Bottom is near, divergence all around, major targets reached, everybody saying btc is going to 6k, china ban (again?! I thought 2017 got us rid of that) news all over...
It's time to buy, guys, at least short term. 6k also possible if months bear market, but not in one go. Ooooh no
It means that this is the target to keep bullish momentum without any psychological effect on the community, and a healthy correction. The strength of the rebound, and then continuation of bullishness will tell us if we will see higher highs, or some consolidating bear market (wave 3 ended or not)
If rebound is weak, and we go lower, it means we officially entered btc's bear market. If rebound is strong (and i expect it to be), we will see a "return to normal", and we will judge by then the next step, depending on market's decision and enthusiasm.
Now, we need to see market's reaction to this level, as it will give us clues on current momentum and targets.
if bottom, expect fomo to 12300 and stabilize to 10k-11k, then high
if break 12300 and hit 13000, expect V bottom and retest ATH
if rebound down at the 11500 resistance and can't break it after two tries, expect a LOT more blood
If second try can't break it, run fast
Watch closely the price action around 10550
If you continued the trade, we are closing on the resistance and halfway through the inverted H&S resistance
US Government close will have a huge impact on btc.
For comparison, here is what happened in 2013, at the last government closure under Obama
BTC did enough correction to resume a bull, so we will just hold forever this position, even if we go down to hell, and continue enjoying the profits we made on this way up, and with swings. They are vastly bigger than if we held anyway, and our core position is intact, so mission accomplished !
BTC will come back to 20k and beyond one day (maybe in few weeks, maybe in few decades when it's a collectable), and even if we must go down to the ground first.
But if it does, I will wait for it there with my cash bag. And I hope that you will too. Now is neither the time to sell or buy, now is the time to watch !
Stay frosty, and remember, money is a mean, not an end !