TheTrex

Bitcoin Parabolic Blow-Off 2017/2018 (End of EW Bulltrend)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
First off, I understand that bitcoin             has great fundamentals. Bitcoin             has great potential to be a currency that can be used everywhere around the world, decentralized and the digital money of the future.
There's no doubt bitcoin             will have great use in the future but there are still some issues which have not been fully addressed (as today). In November-December bitcoin             will get another hard-fork, even though we can take Bitcoin Cash             as an example which is not fully embraced by the community, a new fork will certainly take away some percentage of bitcoins             original marketcap and lower it's price.

I would like to use the term fragmentation for the bitcoin             forks, possibly this will not be the last one, since technology is not flawless and needs constant updating/fixing to keep up with the demand or vulnerabilities. Fragmentation or the consequent splitting of bitcoins             market cap across hard-forks will be an influence on Bitcoins             price in the future.
Another issue for long-term holders or users who for example fully want to use bitcoin             as the primary source of money face the fact that bitcoin's volatility is a huge problem because their account worth fluctuates in large degrees.
One requirement for a usable currency is that it's volatility shouldn't be too large, which bitcoin             does not currently posses.

Bitcoin             as of Jan 2017 till now Mid October 2017 has seen an unprecedented growth of 600% (~285 days, 1000->6000).
Compared to 2013, where it grow 886% in only 60 days (October-December).

I let my Elliot Wave count start where the trend started that broke the cup of 2013, from this starting point 3 up-following waves should bring us to our final reversal point and bring the market in a corrective phase. Both the parabolic growth pattern and the wave count indicate strong reversal at the indicated levels and it is strongly advised to take profit here. The market will turn in a bear market for at least several months if not +1 year.
A 5-3 pattern plays out, our three bull waves then a deep ABC correction which has strong support at 3600 level (4) where the last wave took off and is also 50% retracement if we we're to hit 7K. The price level of 2800 looks like the bottom to me which is the 38.2% retracement , not sure if bitcoin             could get to this level.

To get a understanding of how parabolic blow-off or other economic bubbles look like:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/parabolic-collapses-aug08_image003.gif
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/parabolic-collapses-aug08_image006.gif
http://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2015/08/1438976497622809483224.png
http://static.safehaven.com/authors/continental/18944_a.png



Komen:
Komen: The last update is based on the previous pattern, colors are shown accordingly.
Komen:
Komen: Here we compare the Shanghai Composite Index to Bitcoins current Bullrun. This index also topped off at 6150, around same target as mine (6200-6600) and had a very similar up run from a cup outbreak. I don't think bitcoin will dump this deep at all, the downtrend waves are an idea of how it could look like.
Komen: Weekly indicator should be a good indicator to watch!
Komen: Bull will start kicking in soon! 4H macd about to cross bullish and breaking up from bullflag will release lots consolidate volume. BTFD!
Komen:
Komen: Bitcoin new ATH today!
Perdagangan aktif
Komen: Thinking BTC will take some rest around 6400-6500.
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Brilliant lol
Balas
Really appreciate your insight into and analysis of the future of bitcoin. Volatility is great for trading but cannot sustain a usable currency. I was wondering how users of the currency maintain their prices with a sharply and drastically changing value for that currency. Combined with a coming fork, I agree that the market cap can't stay at this level.

Thanks for your idea.
Balas
Hey Trex, another brilliant analysis bro. Keep them coming.
+1 Balas
Great chart and TA brother!
+2 Balas
TheTrex goldbug1
@goldbug1, Thanks! When you say that, you give me fireflies XD
+1 Balas
@TheTrex, LOL
+1 Balas
You shorting here?
Balas
linnic Ox6c23
@Ox6c23, Based on his oct19th post. I think he's long on the 5th wave
Balas
@Ox6c23, No, This wave to 6100 was only first wave imo. We got 2 more wave to come.
Balas
How would the issuance of ETF's -- to be traded by major financial institutions -- affect the above price prediction for Bitcoin in the upcoming season, post hard-fork)

For one, ETF traders are probably not concerned with collecting, "Bitcoin Gold." In my opinion a sell off of Bitcoin after the hard fork will result in a bullish reversal for for alt-coins, as a buying spree begins. Furthermore, the $5,000 BTC buy wall will most likely be massive as altcoin holders will want to exchange back into Bitcoin after a correction That second wind rally for Bitcoin may result in a double high or go even higher through the introduction of EFT thereafter. I do not see a reversal in the bull trend considering the macro trend. Further, the bond and stock markets are primed for a beat down at year end in this risk-on market, especially if cryptocurrency ETFs are bough hand over fist to avoid the FED-propped securities markets.

Agreed?
Balas
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