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BEARISH and BULLISH Scenario with BITCOIN Feb 19 2018

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
Here's a technical video presenting a Bear and Bull scenario for today's Bitcoin             chart.

Bear Scenario ==> We could be in a Bull Flag which could bring us down to 4k area.
Supporting Data:
(1) Historically the shortest retracement period for Bitcoin             has been 75 days or 2.5 months. The average retracement is much more proably about 90 days. From 20k to 6k we completed about 60 days, so to say 6k was the bottom set new records to make 60 days the shortest retracemnt period in Bitcoins             history.
(2) We can consider the current Bitcoin             patter a Parabolic Arc which normally retraces 62%-78% from where the top was. If we drew a Fibonacci retracement from $500 starting point to 20k, then the 6k hit dead center between the .618 and .786, which is the .7 Fib area. Now according to the Parabolic Arc theory we could go as low as 78% which would bring us to $4,700 area.
Link for Parabolic Arc Theory

Bullish Scenario ==> We are hoping to break the descending upper line channel which may bring us out of the Bull Flag .
Points:
(1) Although we would exit the