BTC revealing its hand further and having fallen over the weekend is no longer showing fractal symmetry with the July - September A-B leg and so I have removed the wedge from the chart as it would appear that is no longer relevant - at least for now.
So as the title imples I'm in the learning chair here. I dont know whats going to happen next but I can see there are possible scenarios - call me MarcPMarkets if you will, but I'll at least be honest with you that it is very complex in the short term here and probably a bit too much for my current manual trading skills to make solid RR in areas like this, but I'll continue to post what I see.
Long term as I have said probably more times than really necessary BTC will see 20K again, but the manner in which it will get there, whether it will go through the forest or down the motorway, well thats the difficult part in this.
So I've gone into some lower degree elliott wave here. I always recommend if a trade isn't going your way to put as much elliott wave as you can on you chart. It won't make you any money but you'll be able too feel better about yourself 😄.
And the main reason it won't make you any money lies in the study of combinations and permutations, but we won't go there now - unless you are a market demon in which case go right ahead and make a lot of money using LTF EW.
Anyhow there is some use in looking at the minor degree wave count here because toward the end of the weekend BTC sits on a 1.618 C wave extension which is a very common reversal point. Does that mean conclusively that BTC will reverse 110% right here? -no of course not because there are more possible downside Fibonacci possibilities, BUT if next week indexes do have a strong bounce then this will likely be where BTC reverses.
And so I'm going to maintain my perspective that the manner in which BTC progresses here in the short term - bullish or bearish lies in the outcome of stock indexes.
And so here is how SPX (index) ended last week.
And just like BTC it currently sits on a common reversal fib. This sort of "M" shape is somewhat common as a reversal pattern and it produces a sharp low followed by a weaker higher low before recovering. We dont yet know the outcome and it could just as well collapse but if the minor C wave does reverse at ratio 0.618 or 1 then good chance the bounce is on for both SPX and BTC.
And if that does happen then BTC may produce a C wave currently would be at 51K or you might think this is madness at this point but it could make a 1.618 C wave extension that would take BTC up to 64K. The latter can only happen on a strong index bounce imo.
But most likely is either C wave to 51K or the bearish scenario imo - so lets now take a look at the bearish perspective.
At this point it doesn't really need much introduction - obviously looks quite bearish on the weekly chart. This is a 3 candle "evening star" formation where the star is a gravestone doji showing heavy selling pressure coming in. If next week stock indexes carry on down or perhaps even if they do nothing much, then BTC could continue this trajectory down and the January upthrust I had thought would probably lead to a bounce could in fact be an X wave connective continuation wave. And if it is then get ready because cheap BTC is on the way ! 😄 As you can see on the chart it would be the "motorway" to my 20K target.
And really for those of us that are interested in charts and somewhat late to the crypto party, the bearish outcome is the MUCH preferable outcome. Of course I would like to be correct short term, and perhaps with one foot in the style of MarcPMarkets considering both sides (I'm thinking maybe to change my avatar to a spectacled animal with 6 screens in the rear - let me know what you think?? 😁) maybe I am still correct to an extent. Anyhow I still havent seen any chart from anyone that is consistently correct with BTC in the short term and also an awareness of the dominant trend, though there are a plethora of people with no charts that will tell you how easy and obvious it all was - looking left (and talking breeze). Everything is easy with hindsight and nothing on record 😄.
But the reality in my personal endeavour here is that BTC is some pretty high tariff to get right in the short term. FX is much easier, I'm having more joy there - much less shenanigans. And the bounce may be on still for BTC - who knows really, as I said I'm in the learning chair for crypto currently but when BTC does fully collapse - whether that is sooner or later I'll be very much welcoming it with open arms and looking forward to making some deep value long calls with a bit more oomph than these in corrective trading ranges. 😄
Might not always have the time to make such long posts but its been quite pleasant with storm Eunace doing its thing to be able to spend a little longer with charts and commentary.
Not advice.
So as the title imples I'm in the learning chair here. I dont know whats going to happen next but I can see there are possible scenarios - call me MarcPMarkets if you will, but I'll at least be honest with you that it is very complex in the short term here and probably a bit too much for my current manual trading skills to make solid RR in areas like this, but I'll continue to post what I see.
Long term as I have said probably more times than really necessary BTC will see 20K again, but the manner in which it will get there, whether it will go through the forest or down the motorway, well thats the difficult part in this.
So I've gone into some lower degree elliott wave here. I always recommend if a trade isn't going your way to put as much elliott wave as you can on you chart. It won't make you any money but you'll be able too feel better about yourself 😄.
And the main reason it won't make you any money lies in the study of combinations and permutations, but we won't go there now - unless you are a market demon in which case go right ahead and make a lot of money using LTF EW.
Anyhow there is some use in looking at the minor degree wave count here because toward the end of the weekend BTC sits on a 1.618 C wave extension which is a very common reversal point. Does that mean conclusively that BTC will reverse 110% right here? -no of course not because there are more possible downside Fibonacci possibilities, BUT if next week indexes do have a strong bounce then this will likely be where BTC reverses.
And so I'm going to maintain my perspective that the manner in which BTC progresses here in the short term - bullish or bearish lies in the outcome of stock indexes.
And so here is how SPX (index) ended last week.
And just like BTC it currently sits on a common reversal fib. This sort of "M" shape is somewhat common as a reversal pattern and it produces a sharp low followed by a weaker higher low before recovering. We dont yet know the outcome and it could just as well collapse but if the minor C wave does reverse at ratio 0.618 or 1 then good chance the bounce is on for both SPX and BTC.
And if that does happen then BTC may produce a C wave currently would be at 51K or you might think this is madness at this point but it could make a 1.618 C wave extension that would take BTC up to 64K. The latter can only happen on a strong index bounce imo.
But most likely is either C wave to 51K or the bearish scenario imo - so lets now take a look at the bearish perspective.
At this point it doesn't really need much introduction - obviously looks quite bearish on the weekly chart. This is a 3 candle "evening star" formation where the star is a gravestone doji showing heavy selling pressure coming in. If next week stock indexes carry on down or perhaps even if they do nothing much, then BTC could continue this trajectory down and the January upthrust I had thought would probably lead to a bounce could in fact be an X wave connective continuation wave. And if it is then get ready because cheap BTC is on the way ! 😄 As you can see on the chart it would be the "motorway" to my 20K target.
And really for those of us that are interested in charts and somewhat late to the crypto party, the bearish outcome is the MUCH preferable outcome. Of course I would like to be correct short term, and perhaps with one foot in the style of MarcPMarkets considering both sides (I'm thinking maybe to change my avatar to a spectacled animal with 6 screens in the rear - let me know what you think?? 😁) maybe I am still correct to an extent. Anyhow I still havent seen any chart from anyone that is consistently correct with BTC in the short term and also an awareness of the dominant trend, though there are a plethora of people with no charts that will tell you how easy and obvious it all was - looking left (and talking breeze). Everything is easy with hindsight and nothing on record 😄.
But the reality in my personal endeavour here is that BTC is some pretty high tariff to get right in the short term. FX is much easier, I'm having more joy there - much less shenanigans. And the bounce may be on still for BTC - who knows really, as I said I'm in the learning chair for crypto currently but when BTC does fully collapse - whether that is sooner or later I'll be very much welcoming it with open arms and looking forward to making some deep value long calls with a bit more oomph than these in corrective trading ranges. 😄
Might not always have the time to make such long posts but its been quite pleasant with storm Eunace doing its thing to be able to spend a little longer with charts and commentary.
Not advice.
Komen:
Comments, charts, on chain analytics, fundamental considerations - all welcome.
Komen:
Komen:
SPX down 0.7%, NDX 1.2% pre-market. Its looking very dicey for all asset classes here, except precious metals perhaps. Might be a bounce, might not be a bounce. Peter is short however so for that reason only I'm slightly favouring a bounce. If no bounce - enjoy the fireworks and it will be a fast track to 20K💥.
Komen:
And just as I'm writing this BTC has a mini pump 5 min from market open. And there is a candle pattern here best viewed on the 2H chart that still has plenty of time left, but just to show - this is currently a "morning star" candle with a hammer as the "star" and looking like it could be a strong reversal. Time will tell...
Perhaps the BTC algos know something I/we dont about indexes. Or perhaps this is an immediate market reaction to Peter's short call. Who knows really... 🤔
Perhaps the BTC algos know something I/we dont about indexes. Or perhaps this is an immediate market reaction to Peter's short call. Who knows really... 🤔
Komen:
Also worth noting if it does reverse here - it happened on this 0.618 retracement.
Komen:
Well BTC having a better day than SPX for anyone paying attention. Is this a clue? I'm going to remain firmly in the learning chair for now - still a MarkPMarkets idk 50/50.
SPX will get to the next fib from here @ 4263 and then imo it is crunch time for SPX - bounce or die. And of course there may be some fakery, perhaps even a lower low for a moment, but if does spend time under the low then a major crash is on the cards imo which will be great for anyone looking to buy cheap stocks but not so good for anyone holding crypto and will certainly not do well for the ADA i'm hodling with no stop loss 😄.
And this game is only fun if you spin the wheel and for that you need chips. This is certainly a casino room trade, but I have my notepad 😄.
SPX will get to the next fib from here @ 4263 and then imo it is crunch time for SPX - bounce or die. And of course there may be some fakery, perhaps even a lower low for a moment, but if does spend time under the low then a major crash is on the cards imo which will be great for anyone looking to buy cheap stocks but not so good for anyone holding crypto and will certainly not do well for the ADA i'm hodling with no stop loss 😄.
And this game is only fun if you spin the wheel and for that you need chips. This is certainly a casino room trade, but I have my notepad 😄.
Komen:
Looking to the right and talking TA 😁.
Komen:
To go off on a tangent but after a daily sell candle ADA is surely revealed to the downside now as are many other alts so I'll show my working here for the few of you that are paying attention.
And its somewhat funny for me because I go on about X waves a lot and how deceptive they are. And they are deceptive because they are a higher degree upthrust and they will show what can be perceived to be bullish RSI readings on many time frames. But as I've said to some - the clue is in the name of the indicator; "relative" strength and so here this X wave (or what i think is an X wave) has strength relative to the trend with an A and a higher C, but they are connective in a downtrend.
And with that it will mean ADA can reach $0.34 with the next leg down. It may bounce, re-test a bit and there may be a better exit, but as I cant see into the future looking to the right I'll exit now.
And its somewhat funny for me because I go on about X waves a lot and how deceptive they are. And they are deceptive because they are a higher degree upthrust and they will show what can be perceived to be bullish RSI readings on many time frames. But as I've said to some - the clue is in the name of the indicator; "relative" strength and so here this X wave (or what i think is an X wave) has strength relative to the trend with an A and a higher C, but they are connective in a downtrend.
And with that it will mean ADA can reach $0.34 with the next leg down. It may bounce, re-test a bit and there may be a better exit, but as I cant see into the future looking to the right I'll exit now.
Komen:
And you can see there is bullish divergence, but the deceptive part is that divergence reveals the X wave upthrust not a bull rally.
And with hindsight (looking left 😄), where that RSI died off after the red circle - that was the clue that momentum was firmly to the downside.
Somewhat irritating as some months ago I traded (on record, not looking left) AUDUSD short off a similar X wave, but you cant get them all.
And perhaps it is the noisy crypto chart I didn't see this one. Crypto is certainly not easy short term but thats just fine because I'm more than aware that any incoming critique comes from those that only express in hot breezy air and I really havent seen a chart from anyone that makes me go "wow" in a long time. I only ever hear about what traders supposedly have done but have nothing on record and they all have their reasons 😄.
Anyhow BTC may or may not bounce still - it remains in the balance but whatever it does there is MUCH more downside coming and it will see 20K.
And with hindsight (looking left 😄), where that RSI died off after the red circle - that was the clue that momentum was firmly to the downside.
Somewhat irritating as some months ago I traded (on record, not looking left) AUDUSD short off a similar X wave, but you cant get them all.
And perhaps it is the noisy crypto chart I didn't see this one. Crypto is certainly not easy short term but thats just fine because I'm more than aware that any incoming critique comes from those that only express in hot breezy air and I really havent seen a chart from anyone that makes me go "wow" in a long time. I only ever hear about what traders supposedly have done but have nothing on record and they all have their reasons 😄.
Anyhow BTC may or may not bounce still - it remains in the balance but whatever it does there is MUCH more downside coming and it will see 20K.
Komen:
Down the road the sensible thing to do would be patiently wait for the bottom and not trade in the bear market, but I'd probably get distracted if i did that, so I'm essentially paying my dues to the market, hopefully it will return the compliment later on 😄.
Next video Saturday 22 June😼.
Hodlers assume an obvious next wave up but will there be a sting in the tail💀.
Deep analysis - I keep the juicy details for my clients.
Telegram Group: $50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Hodlers assume an obvious next wave up but will there be a sting in the tail💀.
Deep analysis - I keep the juicy details for my clients.
Telegram Group: $50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
