BITCOIN - Breaking Out As Predicted! Next stop 57K! 🧐

Well ok I did also make a bearish forecast but this was my preferred outcome 😁. And as I said in a previous thread; this is what BTC does so well - it shows you 2 sides of the coin for maximum uncertainty but eventually it will reveal its hand is what most likely is happening here.

So price did find support on the 50DMA and with 10 hours still to go BTC is already printing a very bullish daily candle. And that support area was also PSY (wyckoff) top from back in January Do you remember all that time ago when everyone thought BTC was going straight to 300K or wherever 😄? - and btw that was when I started posting regularly on TV as I could see a major top was coming.

Anyhow enough memory lane...

Also very important in considering BTC price action is that stock indexes are on a strong bounce today with SPX forming what appear to be an M shaped recovery. It still needs to get back above the all important 200DMA and so its still indecisive here but its looking more probable that it will break through and if it does it will most likely get close to the highs at least. And this will mean BTC will have clearance to move on up over the next few months.

And btw I do think a crash is coming for indexes but maybe its going to be late spring / summer, or it could of course drag sideways longer (or even go on another run, though I dont think so) and that will of course impact BTC, but for now it looks like some breathing space is opening up. And a good question I think is whether BTC is actually providing a leading indicator here? 🤔

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The fibonacci targets on the chart show 3 outcomes that I think are most likely and I have a little unexpected time today so I'll take a moment to explain how my fibs work:

BTC (and other charts) favour 3 types of ratio in forming progressive (dominant up) or proregressive (dominant down) continuation waves. So whether impulsive (12345) or corrective (ABC) (ABCDE) there are dominant impulsive (135, ACE) and regressive connective waves (24,BD).

Now in regard to corresponding fibonacci targets you may notice that on my charts I hardly ever use fibs such as 0.236, 0.886, 0.786 etc. And the reason for this is that after looking for these ratios I have found that in major pivots BTC favours 1 of 2 things in almost every continuation; equidistance or phi relation.

Taking this and applying it to the chart we will look at the blue fibs labelled 1, 1.618 and 0.618. These are the strongest and most common projective ratios as the 1 is the most equidistant, 1.618 is phi without any division (strongest) and 0.618 is 1/phi (weaker). Now when you learn about fibonacci you will be told that all fibonacci ratios are related to phi - and that is true but yet the other ratios have much less magnetism and are far less significant than these 3.

So these blue fibs represent the strongest projective target areas - the 1 which as in the chart would form a 1:1 ABC where the A and C are equal to 1 in ratio.

And if it hits the 1.618 then that will be a 1:1.618 where the A = 1 and the C = 1.618.

Or if it hits the 0.618 then that will be a 1:0.618 where the A = 1 and the C = 0.618.
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Now in addition to that - the green fibs show a retracement from the most significant local high and local low. And again in retracement it is the same concept: I only use the most significant fibs. In this instance equidistance would be 0.5 and phi relation 0.618.

However in this instance there is a slight difference that would be too long to go into right here but that is my concept of the obligatory 0.618 automatic rally and it is again due to the magnetising effect of that phi relation - in this instance 1/phi. And so with BTC 0.618 is a stronger relation than 0.5. It is different elsewhere - FX for example.

And 0.618 retracement is a very important number that market movers will try their best to deceive, but in the end it is a number that price must adhere to as it is the number of balance and the tipping point in knowing whether price will continue or fall back.

0.75 represents potential overshoot and is a common fakeout passed 0.618 for BTC.

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Now looking back to the chart you can see there is fibonacci confluence at the projective 1 and retracement 0.75 so good chance price can reverse in that area.

However as described in the previous thread there is plenty to evident price can get to the 1.618 to make a 5th touch of this very large contracting channel.

And thre is also the 1:0.618 to consider - that has confluence with the 0.618 retracement. However this is the least probable reversal point imo because the 1:0.618 is the weakest of the 3 projective fibs and reversing at the 0.618 retracement would allow no room for overshoot fakery.

And again this is how BTC keeps us in uncertainty. We'll just have to keep collecting those breadcrumbs and see.

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And although BTC may fall back somewhat perhaps to SOW in A - I think this bullish move off the 50DMA in combination with indexes bouncing show that the mid term trend is probably up.

However be aware that I think the eventual low is not yet in and BTC long term will go much lower.

But until then - trend up, probably at least a 1:1 to 57K and from there we'll see.

See you @ 57K 😄

If you like enjoyed that little slice dont clench too tight and smash a like and/or leave a comment. I paid $ for some of what I just shared there entirely for free 😁.

Not advice.

Komen:

Comments, charts, on chain analytics, fundamental considerations - all welcome, preferably with about more depth and focus than "Lol yeah right, nah." 😅

Komen:

All eyes on indexes today - SPX forming an evening star with engulfing sell candle. So as is so often the way its pretty much on a knife edge here. That said SPX often forms these M shapes and recovers so we'll see.

If SPX recovers above 200DMA then BTC will most likely bounce but could also wake up tomorrow and find a crash.

Its MarcPMarkets yet again im afraid, but this is very complex now - lets see how it goes

Komen:

Ratio and signal lines have crossed back and can be seen that didnt happen on the previous bounce recovery. I'm pretty much back in the learning chair now because this is new data and also SPX additional complexity - a MarcPMarkets 50/50 its sad to say.

For BTC chart in isolation I still say it bounces and this line crossing and fall below 50DMA can easily be a fakeout - and I see charts of people I view and follow and they are almost all bearish right here and I sort of feel like i'm missing out on bear time but yet the herd is often wrong and people often get lulled to sleep thinking a trend will go on and on uninterrupted, but as I said previously I think it would be a bit asymmetrical for BTC to spend over a year in this trading range to then fakeout at the top and impulse straight though the bottom - that doesn't seem to ass up for me. And as for this small breakout upward, if it was an X wave connective regression to then go much lower I would expect it to find resistance not support on the 50DMA.

But anyhow BTC must not go too far below 50DMA I feel for this bounce to be anything of significance or not be a contunation. We'll see.

Komen:

If BTC continues in this manner for too long then I would say a moderate upside bounce is the maximum it will be able to muster - 57K and no further. It could also get trapped in a contracting shape similar to 2018. The next week or so wil be interesting to see what type of breadcrumbs are revealed.