phil.steuerwald

Until we hurdle 11.8k I'm still bearish. Here's why...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar


Ooooh, everyone loves to be the first to spot and call a bullish pattern and/or run, don't they? And when everyone spots the same pattern, that is exactly the moment you should become skeptical. Especially, when whales are in the game attempting to manipulate outcome to their benefit.

So, what I see here, and keep in mind this is according to the Bitstamp chart (which will look a bit different in price than other charts you'll see, mainly those calling for a bull run), I see two necklines that have been drawn for this inverse H&S that everybody has been pointing out. Three big problems with calling a bull run this early though:

The first - we've only just skirted the first neckline. Confirmation is a second candle on the daily opening and then also closing above that neckline. Additionally, you still have that second neckline in RED, which may actually be the true neckline. And NOTICE HOW IT INTERSECTS WITH THE TOP OF THE BLUE CHANNEL. This has been a longtime downtrend channel in place since the 18th of December. It is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and WILL provide significant resistance. I will NOT become bullish until we surpass this 11.8k level and confirm.

The second - as I have already alluded to, is that we still remain withing this bearish BLUE channel. We have touched the top twice already. This will be the third time. If we can't push through, big trouble.

The third - I fail to see volume on the right shoulder of this inverse H&S pattern. You can see that I have outlined the volume pops on the left shoulder and head, but where is the volume on the right shoulder. I haven't seen significant volume yet and this could indicate a problem.

BOTTOM LINE: I think a little skepticism here is healthy. A fair amount of buying restraint should be exercised UNTIL we have clearly crossed the 11.8k marker and confirmed it on the daily. Confirmation requires a second candle to be opened ABOVE 11.8k and then it must stay above that price point and close higher. Until then, I am happy to sit on the sidelines and observe.


Let me know what you think readers. Am I missing something?
Komen: Confirmation of channel strength last night!

Komen:

### Hanging Man candle hitting top of long standing channel. Not great.
Komen:

Today we tested the upper neckline. A little more volume. But we still couldn't push through and break that neckline. Baby steps? Or is this simply all the bulls can give us?.. Volume overall is still light. Weekly RSI still hovers at around 54. Although we've barely broken above our longstanding, 2.5 month downtrend channel, I am underwhelmed by these bulls thus far. Original statement still stands, I will not become a bullish unless I see a significant push above 11.8k (with volume) and followed by confirmation on the daily.

Peace.
Komen:

Now sitting on top of our channel. But will this hold? We'll soon find out.
Komen:

Back into the blue today (2.5 month blue downtrend channel). Bears are still strong.
Komen:

Broke back down below .382 fib and the lower neckline of inverse head-and-shoulders. These bears are still strong. Now sitting on bottom black uptrend channel at 10.6k. If we break that, back to the 200ma we go (currently at around $8.9k-ish). And if we go that low, I would say, we might as well retest our most recent low at 6k. Why not? And hell, while we're at it, let's hit the bottom of our blue downtrend channel one more time at 2-4k? Let's get it all out of our system once and for all!
Komen:

Still more bearishness. MACD now turning bearish on the daily. RSI back under 54 on the daily.
phil.steuerwald HansWurst31
@HansWurst31, I do believe 4k is not out of the realm of possibility yet. We'll know shortly. Gotta break above that channel and confirm to be safe.
Balas
I'm cautiously optimistic. We haven't broken that magical $12K mark yet, but we've been holding the current range long enough to lead me to lean slightly bullish. Ultimately, I went long on a small position and set my stops tight at ~4% loss.
Balas
@Box1515, I can understand your reasoning. With 4% stops though, you're barely bullish. We'll see how this pans out soon. Thanks for the comment.
Balas
Box1515 phil.steuerwald
@phil.steuerwald, indeed. That's why I said slightly bullish. :) It's also worth noting I bought in around $10,700 so my stop is down around $10,200. I would be more bullish if we hadn't had such abrupt reversals lately.
Balas
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