Hey guys so I just wanted to share my thoughts . I love the idea of BTC and I believe the future is good. But as of now I think we are in a long bear cycle. based on the last cycle at the end of 2013 we could be in this until around September 2019. With a final price around $4000
I don't think that fundamentals are relevant to TA however I do like listing the talked about areas.
I have been a miner and I did some guessing based on the cost of electricity at .10 which is average . However it is stolen and subsidized in areas and the cost and efficiency of the miners. I put the average cost of BTC to create around $4500. That said the cost can go down if the difficulty goes down and that will happen if the miners start shutting down. which will slow down transactions and somewhat stabilize the price. I know from experience that miners will continue at a loss for a while and after investing thousands you most likely are not going to wrap things up just because your losing now. They would have to believe the price will not go up to shut down with there mining equipment getting out dated.
Looking at the mining difficulty
Mar 05 2018 3,290,605,988,754 9.42% 23,555,075,176 GH/s
Feb 20 2018 3,007,383,866,429 4.62% 21,527,692,255 GH/s
Feb 06 2018 2,874,674,234,415 10.43% 20,577,719,706 GH/s
Jan 25 2018 2,603,077,300,218 16.84% 18,633,553,122 GH/s
Jan 13 2018 2,227,847,638,503 15.36% 15,947,554,580 GH/s
Jan 01 2018 1,931,136,454,487 3.10% 13,823,613,194 GH/s
Dec 18 2017 1,873,105,475,221 17.74% 13,408,211,263 GH/s
Dec 06 2017 1,590,896,927,258 18.11% 11,388,083,790 GH/s
Nov 24 2017 1,347,001,430,558 -1.28% 9,642,211,820 GH/s
Nov 10 2017 1,364,422,081,125 -6.09% 9,766,913,694 GH/s
as you can see its not getting easier even with the drop in price.
I don't think that fundamentals are relevant to TA however I do like listing the talked about areas.
I have been a miner and I did some guessing based on the cost of electricity at .10 which is average . However it is stolen and subsidized in areas and the cost and efficiency of the miners. I put the average cost of BTC to create around $4500. That said the cost can go down if the difficulty goes down and that will happen if the miners start shutting down. which will slow down transactions and somewhat stabilize the price. I know from experience that miners will continue at a loss for a while and after investing thousands you most likely are not going to wrap things up just because your losing now. They would have to believe the price will not go up to shut down with there mining equipment getting out dated.
Looking at the mining difficulty
Mar 05 2018 3,290,605,988,754 9.42% 23,555,075,176 GH/s
Feb 20 2018 3,007,383,866,429 4.62% 21,527,692,255 GH/s
Feb 06 2018 2,874,674,234,415 10.43% 20,577,719,706 GH/s
Jan 25 2018 2,603,077,300,218 16.84% 18,633,553,122 GH/s
Jan 13 2018 2,227,847,638,503 15.36% 15,947,554,580 GH/s
Jan 01 2018 1,931,136,454,487 3.10% 13,823,613,194 GH/s
Dec 18 2017 1,873,105,475,221 17.74% 13,408,211,263 GH/s
Dec 06 2017 1,590,896,927,258 18.11% 11,388,083,790 GH/s
Nov 24 2017 1,347,001,430,558 -1.28% 9,642,211,820 GH/s
Nov 10 2017 1,364,422,081,125 -6.09% 9,766,913,694 GH/s
as you can see its not getting easier even with the drop in price.
