Good morning, traders. As you are likely aware by now, price took off last night and hit a high of $5080 (~$150 above the 1.618 extension off the first wave in December 2018) just above the daily R4 pivot as I have been attempting to prepare everyone for as an increasing likelihood of happening due to price action and volume, especially as of late. I hope we stop hearing all the "low volume" nonsense that has plagued this space for way too long now. As I wrote yesterday, "I continue to see an increasing number of really terrible analysis relating to volume. Yes, volume is low, but this is to be necessarily expected as price nears resistance and the apex of a triangle. So there is nothing overtly bearish about volume at this time. Stop listening to people who say 'volume is low' or 'volume is high.' Without context it means absolutely nothing because volume does not live alone on its own little island." In yesterday's morning update video I stated that we should see a move up toward $4200 followed by a retrace to reset 4H RSI and then a strong move up through that level but that we don't trade on what we think should happen, rather we trade on what the charts say and that the charts were saying we were likely to hit that area and then take off instead. Clearly that is what happened.
We are now officially in a bullish trend as price has notched higher lows AND highs for the first time since the 2017 ATH and start of the corrective cycle. Ideally, we would look for a pullback toward the R2 daily pivot at around $4400/$4450 now for wave 4. In terms of Wyckoff, this would create the BUEC/LPS at the top of the TR which is right in the demand zone as noted on the chart. If we can get that, then I am looking for wave 5 to target the $6200/$6300 level which means we would see subwave 3 of wave 5 push through the supply at $5500.
I closed out my long on that move up and am now short toward that R2 daily pivot. The plan at this time is to long at that level and look for a target in the low $6000s as mentioned above. We are going to see novice retail traders now lose money attempting to short this move down. They will likely over leverage their short position and get liquidated as price bounces on the way down. Don't be that person. That doesn't mean don't short, it does mean don't over leverage and make sure you are finding confirmation of some sort before entering your short while understanding that residual volatility from last night's move remains so we are likely to see price bouncing $50 or more multiple times within a few seconds at times as price moves. Overall target remains around $14,500/$15,000 based on the height of the large descending wedge that printed from the ATH now that price has decisively pushed through it.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
We are now officially in a bullish trend as price has notched higher lows AND highs for the first time since the 2017 ATH and start of the corrective cycle. Ideally, we would look for a pullback toward the R2 daily pivot at around $4400/$4450 now for wave 4. In terms of Wyckoff, this would create the BUEC/LPS at the top of the TR which is right in the demand zone as noted on the chart. If we can get that, then I am looking for wave 5 to target the $6200/$6300 level which means we would see subwave 3 of wave 5 push through the supply at $5500.
I closed out my long on that move up and am now short toward that R2 daily pivot. The plan at this time is to long at that level and look for a target in the low $6000s as mentioned above. We are going to see novice retail traders now lose money attempting to short this move down. They will likely over leverage their short position and get liquidated as price bounces on the way down. Don't be that person. That doesn't mean don't short, it does mean don't over leverage and make sure you are finding confirmation of some sort before entering your short while understanding that residual volatility from last night's move remains so we are likely to see price bouncing $50 or more multiple times within a few seconds at times as price moves. Overall target remains around $14,500/$15,000 based on the height of the large descending wedge that printed from the ATH now that price has decisively pushed through it.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Komen:
That should've read that I am looking for wave 4 to complete around the R1/R2 daily pivots. It is possible that we could see a wick on the larger TFs down to the R1 pivot level and potentially even just below it around $4100. It all depends on demand now that we have had this move and the market is excited at the possibilities. As always, I'll get into greater depth during this morning's video update on the other social media site that TV won't allow me to mention by name.
